Trump's victory could give boost to Brazil's Bolsonaro's re-election hopes amid court ban on him running
President-elect Donald Trump's victory in November's election has given hope to Brazil's former leader Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently barred from running for public office until 2030 due to a ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.
Known as the "Trump of the Tropics," the court decision stemmed from his alleged abuse of power and "unfounded attacks on the country’s electronic voting system."
Despite the prohibition, Bolsonaro and his supporters are actively seeking avenues to overturn the ruling. The expected legal challenges and political strategies pin a lot of hope on Trump. Furthermore, Bolsonaro is counting on the president-elect to exert pressure on the government of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) so he can challenge for the presidency in 2026.
"Trump’s victory goes far beyond being positive for democracy in Brazil and the world; it is good news for global peace," Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, told Fox News Digital.
He noted how "President Lula, days before the election, had expressed support for Kamala Harris and suggested that a new Trump administration would be ‘Nazism in another form.’ However, after Trump’s victory, Lula congratulated the president-elect and tried to downplay his earlier, widely criticized statement."
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Nonetheless, key Lula allies, including the leader of the Workers Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, along with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Agriculture Minister Paulo Teixeira, have lambasted the incoming Trump administration.
Bolsonaro believes Trump’s victory will put the present government in a bind.
"Lula and his team know they will not be able to control Trump, so their only option is to try to destroy him by aligning themselves even further with China. The result is the continued political polarization and debates far removed from the true concerns of the population, which seeks solutions for issues like healthcare, education, security, employment, and basic sanitation. This disconnect from ordinary citizens strongly resembles the reasons behind the Democratic Party’s defeat in the last American election – it’s almost a ‘déjà vu.’"
Lula and BRICS countries have discussed ways to combat the dominance of the dollar in global financial markets, but Bolsonaro argues that such a strategy will be counter-productive.
"Trump announced on his social media that countries adopting this stance would face a 100% tariff on their exports to the U.S. Such a conflict never occurred during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, whether under Trump or Biden," he said, adding, "This situation will create significant pressure on Lula’s business base. A large portion of these entrepreneurs maintain substantial trade relations with the U.S. and are often the largest donors to the socialist’s electoral campaigns. Despite ideological alignment in some areas, these businesspeople prioritize economic pragmatism."
The BRICS countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Bolsonaro also views the Bolsonaro/Trump ideological alignment on freedom of speech issues as a key component to a potential return of Bolsonaro to the political realm.
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In March 2022, Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes ordered the suspension of the messasging app Telegram in Brazil, and in 2024, he ordered X to block accounts allegedly spreading false information. Elon Musk publicly criticized these orders as censorship. The dispute escalated when de Moraes imposed fines and threatened legal action, leading to a temporary suspension of X’s operations in Brazil. The platform resumed services after complying with court mandates.
The last opinion polls conducted in May 2024 indicated that Bolsonaro would secure 39% of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who polled at 47%. However, experts consider these figures to be hypothetical, given Bolsonaro’s current ineligibility. At the same time, Bolsonaro’s popularity has been rising again in recent months.
The relationship between some Republicans and Lula’s administration has been characterized by limited direct engagement, primarily due to differing ideological stances and policy priorities. Historically, the Republican Party has maintained closer ties with right-leaning Brazilian leaders, notably President Bolsonaro, who shared similar conservative viewpoints.
Political analyst Sandra Bronzina told Fox News Digital, "Not long ago Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar sponsored a measure to deny visas to members of the Brazilian Supreme Court for abuse of power. At the time, the measure was not approved, but now that the Republicans will have a majority, it could be revisited. We cannot forget that Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Brazilian Supreme Court, was in direct confrontation with Elon Musk, even removing X from Brazil. It turns out that now Elon Musk will be part of the Trump government."
Bronzina said, "The fact that Trump has returned with a resounding electoral win does not bode well for the Lula administration. In a very short time, Lula's economic policies have been a disaster, the dollar has risen a lot, inflation has increased, the country's debt already exceeds 9 trillion reals, and all of this impacts the voter daily. I think that just like in the U.S., where bad economic policies made them miss Trump, the Brazilians right now are also missing Bolsonaro and his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes."
Analysts consider that while Bolsonaro enjoys a significant support base and is actively seeking to overturn his political ban, his chances of being re-elected president remain uncertain due to existing legal constraints.
"The Supreme Court disqualified Jair Bolsonaro in a very unfair decision…but the right will be strengthened now since Donald Trump's victory gave the right in Brazil new hope in 2026. The 2024 elections were favorable for right-wing candidates. Lula's popularity is also very low, which means that in 2026 the right's options are enormous", Congressman Marcel van Hattem told Fox News Digital.