Iran population ageing fast, bucking government efforts

Driven by rising life expectancy and dramatically declining birth rates, Iran's demographic makeup has shifted over the years, mirroring trends across much of the world.

The National Population Research Institute has found that the country's 86-million-strong population is ageing five times faster than it is growing, according to official news agency IRNA, and the UN projects that by 2050 one-third of Iranians will be 60 or older -- a three-fold increase from 2021.

"With this ongoing trend, the country will face a serious crisis in the future," Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni warned in December.

He said Iran's population could shrink by more than half its size over the next 75 years.

Authorities have launched public campaigns to encourage Iranians to have more children, with eye-catching billboards and posters periodically popping up across the country.

"Children, the pulse of our lives!" read one poster, showing a couple with four children.

A billboard featuring a happy family had the caption: "Life is better when happy -- having kids is better when you have many."

Shaho Sabbar of the University of Tehran said that the "negative impact" of Iran's changing demography "has started to be felt over the past decade".

The long-term impact could be "significant", Sabbar said.

"As the number of working-age individuals declines, Iran may face labour shortages, reduced economic growth and an increased burden on the younger generation to support the elderly."
'Huge undertaking'
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the Islamic republic experienced a baby boom, in part due to a successful government campaign to encourage more births.

But as the country was struggling to rebuild its economy after the war, the government reversed its policy, urging Iranian families to have no more than two children.

Fertility rates have since plummeted, from an average of 6.4 children per woman to just 1.6 in 2023, National Population Research Institute head Mohammad Javad Mahmoudi said according to IRNA.

Population growth has also slowed from 1.29 percent in 2011 to just 0.6 percent in 2023, Mahmoudi said.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who initially supported the family planning policies of the post-war era, later called them a "mistake".

In August, he demanded measures to reverse the decline in births.

"The country needs a young population, and if it suffers the bitter consequences of population ageing, there is no cure," Khamenei said.

Struggling under the weight of international sanctions, high unemployment and soaring prices, many Iranians have felt discouraged from having children.

"Raising a child is a huge undertaking," said Zohreh, a 39-year-old makeup artist from Tehran, who has been married for seven years.

Giving only her first name, she said her own experience growing up in the capital was marred by "the poor educational system" and the "dire" state of the economy following the war.
'Overwhelming' burden
Sabbar said that beyond economic concerns, Iran's greying population could also herald an "overwhelming" burden on the national healthcare system.

"There will also be a potential pension and social security crisis," he said.

"With fewer working-age individuals, the government may struggle to provide for the increasing number of retirees."

Authorities have gone to great lengths to encourage young Iranians to start a family, offering parents incentives such as low-interest housing loans, financial aid and free healthcare for mothers and children.

But the overall impact of the authorities' push "has been limited", said Sabbar.

A 38-year-old public employee who gave only his last name, Etemadi, for fear of repercussions, said the incentives "are either too difficult to obtain or very small compared to the cost of raising a child".

He has three children, all born before the financial incentives were introduced in 2021, and so has been unable to benefit from them.

Other government measures enacted that same year include the launch of a dating app aimed at forging "lasting" unions.

Authorities in 2021 also restricted the distribution of contraceptives and imposed strict limits on pregnancy screenings to detect genetic diseases.

Zohreh, the makeup artist, said the limits on pregnancy tests discouraged her, fearing that without them, "my child would be born with defects".

Sabbar said the solution lies far beyond family planning.

The government should "create a more favourable environment that makes saving, investment and immigration plausible", he said.