College Football Playoff picks for semifinals Notre Dame-Penn State, Ohio State-Texas

Debating who wins Notre Dame-Penn State as well as Ohio State-Texas

Just four teams remain in pursuit of a college football national championship.

It all gets underway later tonight, when Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the Orange Bowl. The winner of that game will face the winner of Friday night’s Cotton Bowl Classic between Texas and Ohio State.

Four legendary programs, two spots remaining in the title game. Who is headed to the National Championship Game? JP Acosta and Mark Schofield hash that out here.

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Friday, January 10, 7:30 p.m.

JP: The Orange Bowl in Miami, played between a team from Texas and a team from Ohio. God I love college football.

Mark: It’s the best. The absolute best.

Anyway Yes the Orange Bowl is first on the schedule, but there is a reason we are starting with this game. Last week while I waxed poetic about Dillon Gabriel and all the games he’s started in college, JP held firm and picked the Buckeyes.

I think it is safe to say he nailed that one.

Instead of wondering if Mike Vrabel was headed back to campus to take over for Ryan Day, we’re debating whether Jeremiah Smith has grounds to challenge the NFL’s rules on eligibility — he does is where we landed after debating it Monday morning — and if the Buckeyes truly are the best team in the nation right now.

So we thought it was only right to start here, because this game has so many storylines including this one: Will JP pick Ryan Day again?

JP: Ryan Day can, in fact, get away with it. This Ohio State defense is playing some of the best football in the country after finally running Jim Knowles’ defense. They turned Oregon’s RPO-based offense into a pincushion with their 3-safeties, forcing either a run into the strength of OSU’s defense or throwing right at safety Caleb Downs, which is a mistake. According to SIS, Oregon threw 66 RPOs. Mark would you like to guess which team was right behind them at 63 attempts?

Mark: Um, I’m guessing they are playing in this game.

JP: That’s right, the University of Texas! Sark is the best offensive mind in football even without the gimmicky RPO bullcrap, but QB Quinn Ewers is operating at his best with the use of play action and not having to use standard dropbacks very often in this game. He made some very impressive throws to end the game against Arizona State, but this is an entirely different beast he’s going up against. This is like going from the pond into shark-infested oceans. Mark, as the former QB, what stands out about Ewers’ game and how he might be able to crack this nut (pun intended)?

Mark: It’s more, I think, what stands out about the Texas offense when compared with Oregon. Texas has the ability to push the ball downfield on a more consistent basis, and when you watch their film, Matthew Golden is open on almost every single snap. That ability might keep those three safeties deep more than Knowles wants, opening up some opportunities for the run game behind a stout offensive line — that might get Cameron Williams back — as well as setting up some of their play-action stuff.

Man I’m almost talking myself into Texas here ...

JP: I could see Texas winning this game...if it was against anyone but Ohio State. I’m just worried about having Ewers throwing the ball in non-PA dropbacks. If Cameron Williams plays and can help against the pressure looks that’ll go a long way, but man it’s tough. We haven’t even talked about the best player in this game and in the playoff...which might be a freshman? Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith would be the best player in this upcoming draft class and has me wondering if we should let freshmen or sophomores declare for the draft early. He’s a rare blend of size (6’3, 215), speed and body control, dunking on defenders on the goal line one play then blasting past them on shot plays the next. Mark, you’ve been doing this longer than I have, but I can comfortably say we haven’t seen a receiver quite like Smith in a long time, a guy who dominated from the moment he stepped onto the field.

Mark: JP sliding in the age dig, I have no choice but to respect it.

But you’re right. Smith is special. He’s why we spent our staff meeting on Monday talking more about him challenging the NFL eligibility rules than actually, you know, talking about work stuff. He is going to be a problem at the next level, and certainly a problem for Texas on Friday night.

So, let’s get to it. Who do you have in this one?

JP: I’m gonna go with Ohio State here. The Buckeye offensive line has played really well since the Michigan loss, and how the Longhorns try and defend Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka is the most impossible question to answer in college football. Buckeyes win, but it’s close.

Mark: I almost talked myself into Texas. Almost. But Ohio State has been so impressive in their past two games. But like you I think this one will be close.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9, 7:30 p.m. Eastern

JP: This game feels a little bit like the Spider-Man meme

I actually think this game has the better QB matchup of the two semifinals, so we’ll jump in with Penn State’s signal caller.

Mark: Good call, because Drew Allar has the chance to do the funniest thing possible.

When the Penn State passer stated his intention to return to campus for his senior year, buzz surrounds Allar regarding his NFL draft stock. Because let’s face it: Someone has to be QB3.

And if Allar has one — or two — more solid games, that potential stock could rise higher. So before we get to a pick I have to ask JP: Is Allar really going back to school if he puts in another good game or two?

JP: I mean, he did leave the door open enough for people to speculate, so let’s see how it goes! The thing about Allar is that he’s got everything NFL scouts want. Prototypical size, powerful arm to push the ball downfield and is growing within his operation of the offense. In a class with no QB3 (and a bazillion different answers on who QB1 is), Allar could enter after a good playoff run and have a very good shot at going first overall. It’s worth noting that Allar is from Cleveland, Ohio and a big Browns fan, and the Browns have the second overall pick so...yeah there’s that.

Mark: The thing that gets me about this game is that Penn State might be built to test this Notre Dame defense. I went back and watched their games against Indiana and Boise State, with an eye on when the Fighting Irish brought pressure. They blitzed Kurtis Rourke on 11 passing plays in their first-round win over Indiana (with a blitz being defined as five or more pass rushers). On those plays, Rourke completed 3-of-8 passes for 27 yards and no touchdowns, with one of those completions going for a two-point conversion. Rourke was also sacked once on those plays, with Notre Dame being flagged for a penalty on the other two snaps.

Most of Rourke’s pass attempts came outside the numbers, as he looked to connect on vertical routes downfield when Notre Dame brought pressure.

The Fighting Irish also brought pressure in their Fiesta Bowl win over Georgia, blitzing backup quarterback Gunner Stockton on 16 passing plays. The Bulldogs QB had a bit more success against pressure than Rourke, completing 8-of-15 passes for 111 yards. Again, many of those completions came outside the numbers, but for one slant route to slot receiver Dominic Lovett.

Enter Tyler Warren. He gives Allar — and Penn State — a chance to punish blitzes over the middle, and that’s something they have done throughout this season.

JP: How Notre Dame goes about the Tyler Warren problem is huge, because outside of Warren...there’s nobody that scares you if you’re the Irish. I would steal a page from Bill Belichick and double Warren and force the ball literally anywhere else. I love Notre Dame CB Leonard Moore, who, you guessed it, is a freshman and absolutely smothers receivers on the outside. If Penn State is forced to get the ball to anyone outside Warren, who are they going to? Is it Nick Singleton out the backfield?

Mark: Yeah, expect a log of “1-Double 44” from Notre Dame. Perhaps with some pressure up front to stress Allar and potentially slow him down, if he’s forced to look away from Warren in those moments. Then ND probably puts Moore on Harrison Wallace III on an island, and Allar is forced to get to his third option, which is probably Singleton out of the backfield.

Not great.

But the question might be, can ND score enough with their offense? And what if everyone is sick, because apparently they’re dealing with a flu bug right now ...

JP: “Scoring” and “Notre Dame offense” don’t go together in my opinion. However, what they are good at is being efficient and complementary with the football. Their run game is dynamic, with three run threats in the backfield with RBs Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard. They’re a smashmouth football team that can turn every game into a rock fight, and they also have the special teams to do it as well. A big point in this game: if Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter is less than 100%, how does that impact their defense? He missed the second half of the Boise State game and that’s when the Broncos started to move the ball more. Notre Dame is much bigger and much meaner than Boise, so Penn State potentially not having their best player is massive.

So, with all that said, who gets to the title game Mark?

Mark: Carter being out tonight would be a problem for PSU, and apparently he will be a true “game-time decision.” Even if he goes sounds like he’d at least be limited.

But I’m going to roll the dice. Give me Penn State tonight as Allar has the game of his life, setting up a fascinating discussion over the next few weeks.

JP: I wish I could be as bold as you, but I’m going with Notre Dame. I worry that this is the game that Penn State’s lack of weapons outside of Tyler Warren shows up, and the Irish are able to turn this game into a slugfest, complete with a blocked punt as well.