Van moves to California drop to 2nd-lowest share on record
“Swift swings” takes a quick peek at one economic trend.
The number: California’s inability to attract other Americans is reinforced by statistics showing 2024 was the second worst for van relocations to the state since 2004.
The source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at my curious collection of annual migration data from three moving van lines — Allied, Atlas, and United — over two-plus decades. Let’s remember that these interstate relocations are expensive. So, these tallies can be best viewed as a yardstick of where people with fat checkbooks or generous employers are moving.
The curve
An average 41.1% of California-linked moves by the three van lines in 2024 were to the Golden State while 58.9% were exits. That’s the second-lowest arrival share since 2004, ahead only of 2022’s 40.5% slice.
Last year’s inbound share was down from 43.8% in 2023 – a 2.77-percentage-point decline. It’s the second-largest dip since 2004. Only the pandemic-mania of 2020 created a larger drop.
Also, 2024 arrivals ran below the 42.3% average since the pandemic began in 2000, and the 48.7% pre-coronavirus pace of 2004-2019.
Details
California van moves often parallel broader domestic migration patterns.
Swings in the gap between van moves in and out of California and changes in the state’s overall net population loss to other states aligned 14 times since 2004. However, they’ve gone in opposite directions the past two years.
According to state demographers, California’s net outmigration is thinning. The 197,000 population flow to other states in the year ended July 1, 2024, was a notable drop from 249,300 in 2023 and the 273,200 average since 2000.
Postscript
Ponder some more affordable interstate moving.
My spreadsheet’s translation of stats from U-Haul shows that roughly 49.3% of its California do-it-yourself relocations last year were inbound – not much different than 49.2% for 2023.
U-Haul noted that “arrivals into California fell 1.5% while departures fell almost 2% as overall moving traffic slowed in 2024.”
Such equipment rentals are a cheaper way to move and represent folks with less wealth than those who hire van lines.
California’s inbound U-Haul moves have shrank modestly recently, averaging 49.4% since 2000 vs. 49.9% in pre-coronavirus 2015-2019.
Quotable
A recent population analysis by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy had this interesting thought about ins and out across the state: “Outmigration levels could continue to decline, especially as rising housing costs and climate events in other states reduce the competitiveness with California has been experiencing.”
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com