Add news
News Every Day |

Was Carter’s Flawed Presidency, the Best the US Can Expect?

Photograph Source: Thomas J. O’Halloran – Public Domain

Jimmy Carter’s body has been interned after a century of energetic engagement on the earth’s surface. But his legacy remains debated as observed in legions of overviews on his legacy published this past week. Some see him as an idealist lacking humanity’s foibles nonetheless necessary to properly govern people less earnest than himself. Many on the left see him inaugurating the neoliberal era with his deregulatory economic agenda, while conservatives view him as the harbinger of massive inflation and economic malaise. Meanwhile, on foreign policy front, liberals saw him as re-introducing values into foreign policy, while those on the right thought him soft and failing to use the US’s iron fist to advance American interests. Instead, we might view his actions through a Black Swan set of economic events only radical solutions could have addressed while succumbing to pressure from Cold War Democrat hawks that shifted foreign policy in ways creating geopolitical instability up to the present.

Running the world in the Cold War was not for the pure of heart. From the “scientific management” of war meted out in Vietnam by former Ford Motor’s President Robert McNamara as Secretary of State, to the assassinations and overthrow of democracies by the CIA as exposed by Senator Frank Church’s Commission, to the deviousness of power exposed by the Watergate hearings on the Nixon Administration shown daily on television in 1973, it was an ugly ride. Many Americans wished for renewal following this period. And it seemed to arrive, as it only could in the US, by calling up Frank Capra’s central casting for a Norman Rockwell figure coming to full immerse Baptize America anew and to wish away its sins. In short, Jimmy Carter, the Plains, Georgia engineer, farmer, intellectual and preacher, but no snob, arrived on the “set” in 1976.

Labor wanted a reboot of the New Deal from Carter, but instead got a raw deal. The 1970s were the opposite side of the long economic cycle that began a half-century earlier in the 1920s that culminated in the New Deal. The interwar period, out of which the New Deal was born, was marked by under-consumption by workers. In the 1970s, the opposite, as post-WW II gains for labor shifted in the post-WW II era to more of the economy’s output going from wealth to income (wages). This period saw workers getting roughly 10 percent more of the economy’s output as labor does now. In short, there was much room in the 1930s to address the economic crisis through boosting wages and increasing industrial investment. By the 1970s, this was no longer the case. This time saw manufacturing over-capacity and the Black Swan stagflation event of the energy crisis. Under these 1970’s conditions, an expanded New Deal like industrial policy could not be accomplished with Keynesianism (government spending that also retained capitalist profits).  

The Brits were the first to offer the alternative of doubling down on infrastructural investment/modernization before Carter was even elected. The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, James Callaghan, argued for this in 1976. The AFL-CIO suggested it for the US in 1979 but were rebuked by Carter. It might have worked, but it would have required crossing the line from Keynesianism to socialism, or quite close to it (which I support), given the erosion of profit levels that would have ensued. As smart as Carter was, he was not equipped by training nor inclination nor class background to go that route.

James Callaghan, as referenced above, however, was going to try this more radical fix to the then crisis that would have arguably crossed from Keynesianism into socialism. Callaghan was going to launch a massive modernization of industry program to escape the crisis through increasing productivity. Problem was how to pay for it? The new burdens of a 300% increase in oil from 1973 were budget-busting. The answer was to get the International Monetary Fund (IMF) money. William Simon, President Gerald Ford’s Treasury Secretary, paid PM Simon a visit to say, paraphrasing, “No way, Jose. Your investment solution will exacerbate the already existing crisis of manufacturing overcapacity thus worsening the already existing crisis of corporate profitability. Return to your ‘comparative advantage’ of banking (especially offshore), or you get no IMF money to pay for oil this winter.” Callahan folded. What choice did he have?

In 1979, Lane Kirkland of the AFL-CIO proposed an industrial policy similar in direction to Callaghan’s. This was the Reindustrialization Financing Corporation that would combine private and public money with union pension funds to modernize US industry. Labor’s proposal was nixed, however, by Carter’s economic advisors that already settled into their deregulatory path and were keen on keeping government budgets going too far into the red. Francois Mitterrand in France was the last to this pivot to investment direction but was crushed by a capital strike (when big business withholds money and starves the economy).

During this 1970s crisis the Trilateral Commission (TC) exercised their influence on policy directions as they formed a new consensus among capital. The TC represented figures making up the faction of elites that previously backed FDR; capital-intensive industries whose profits came from investments more than from labor-intensive older industries (e.g., National Association of Manufacturer types) where low wages and low taxes delivered profits. By 1975, the TC decided, contra failed Democratic Party candidate Al Smith’s 1928 maxim that the “cure for the ills democracy was more democracy” had reached its limits as an instrument for maximizing stability. Elite opinion in the TC now argued (activism and electoral) by the 1970s we had overdosed on democracy and it now generated instability that had to be rolled back. Samuel Huntington’s TC work group concluded this in their 1975 report entitled The Crisis of Democracy claiming democracy needed “downsizing.”

But there was not yet consensus in the TC on how to deal with the economic crisis as it unfolded in the early 1970s . Carter in the first half of his presidency tried a Keynesian “locomotive” strategy where US spending would pull it and West Europe out of the slump. This failed. By 1978 this pushed elite opinion toward the direction of restoring macro-economic stability, or austerity rather than investment to restore the economy. The massive 1978 oil shock added further fuel to implement this austerity solution. As we know, labor was expected to pay most of the cost and under Reagan following Carter, workers paid all the freight of the economic rebalancing under their supply-side austerity policies.

Carter was, in essence, a friendlier/nicer version of Margaret Thatcher, with the economic outlook of them both shaped by the small business environment out of which they emerged (the grocer’s daughter and peanut farmer). Carter differed from the Iron Lady in also being a “Naderist” (Ralph), thinking that anti-corruption and halting price gouging and rent-seeking of various types were needed for restoring economic vitality. Of course, Naderist reforms were helpful (and normatively good), but insufficient for achieving this policy goal of fixing the 1970’s crisis. Carter’s paternalistic outlook as a protestant preacher linking sacrifice (austerity) and piety were also unhelpful. Labor was shafted and handed the first bar tab for system reform, for which fully developed neoliberalism would dump even more bills for workers to pay.

Where Carter exercised real agency, rather than being pushed by the underlying logic of late-stage Keynesianism matched by the Black Swan event of the oils shock, was on foreign policy. The critical event was his pressure to appease Cold War hawk Democrats by appointing Zbigniew Brzezinski (ZB) as National Security Advisor. ZB was frequently sidelined in the first half of Carter’s Administration with Cyrus Vance as Secretary of State mostly shaping a more liberal and less interventionist foreign policy. Carter, however, finally bowed to right-wing pressure and permitted ZB in 1979 to implement his Afghani scheme in support of the Mujahideen. This was transformative. Designed to get the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan to give the Soviets “their own Vietnam” (as ZB put it), it set the table for radical Islamic terrorism to flourish up to the present, while also working to break up the Soviet and then Russian “empires.” This policy echoes into the present in our renewed Cold War. Permitting Brzezinski to take the reins of foreign policy in 1979 was nothing short of the difference that history might have taken if Henry Wallace had been allowed to remain FDR’s VP, rather than his replacement by Truman and the influence that hawk Secretary of State James Byrnes exercised over US foreign policy shaping the Cold War.

In short, Carter had little agency to fix the 1970’s economic crisis. He could have chosen the massive investment drive that would have in effect made the US a near socialist economy (a choice your author would support). That, however, was risky and would not comport with Carter’s outlook or grasp of economics. By contrast, Carter had greater latitude to constrain Zbigniew Brzezinski’s foreign policy adventures but bowed to political pressures late in his presidency to shift right and with it delivering a legacy of geopolitical instability that remains with us today.

Marxist historian and first Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, Eric Williams, argued that anti-slavery really wasn’t much of “thing” among Europe’s ruling and middle classes before 1800. While imperfect as an analogy, before the 19thcentury one might as a slave prefer living under the rule by the most enlightened slave owner rather than the worst sadists among those presiding over that institution. Given the prevailing class relations of the 1970s, Carter’s small business farming background and being a pastor, his actions on policy were both predictable and one can argue his intentions noble and as observed, better than what followed him even if he opened the path for neoliberalism.

Future policy progressive change by policymakers will require an intellectual anchoring in political economy. While Carter’s undeniable (to my mind) extraordinary humanity is admirable, and qualities we should seek for officeholders, absent a command of political economy and grasp of class relations, we should not expect better outcomes than obtained by Carter’s rule in his four years as President during the crisis of the 1970s.

The post Was Carter’s Flawed Presidency, the Best the US Can Expect? appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

Москва

Сергей Собянин. Главное за день

Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

The Ashton Jeanty Bears Smoke Just Got Even Thicker

Here’s more of what you’ll see through Meta’s $1,000 smart glasses

Creating and sharing deepfakes through tools such as OpenAI is now a crime in New Jersey—punishable by up to 5 years in prison

Will AI ever cure cancer? The multibillion-dollar race to bring the first AI-discovered drug to market

Ria.city
Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Ревматолог: "4 апреля 2024 в г.Колумбус запущена квота"

Каждый человек с больными суставами имеет право получить...






Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Осторожно, 1 стакан сжигает 3 кг жира! Запишите рецепт...

Вот это точно убьет лишний вес! -17кг за 5 дней! Перед сном съешьте...


Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Ревматолог: "4 апреля 2024 в г.Колумбус запущена квота"

Каждый человек с больными суставами имеет право получить...

Read also

Eminem’s daughter gives birth to first baby and reveals name with sweet tribute to dad

Map shows where to see Banksy’s best graffiti in London after new artwork found

'My policies will never change!' Trump insists he won't blink on tariffs

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Darts star leaks World Championship payslip as he reveals long list of ‘deductions’ left him with just £5,200 winnings

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Darts star leaks World Championship payslip as he reveals long list of ‘deductions’ left him with just £5,200 winnings



Sports today


Новости тенниса
ATP

Бухарест (ATP). 1/4 финала. О’Коннелл играет с Фучовичем, Баес встретится с Комесаньей



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Фиксики — партнеры Всероссийской олимпиады для школьников «Наука вокруг нас»



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Ученица гимназии № 1 Балашихи — победитель чемпионата «Абилимпикс»


Новости России

Game News

Call of Duty will finally let console players turn off crossplay to dodge PC cheaters, which is potentially terrible news for all the legit PC players


Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine

Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine

Russian.city

Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine


Москва

Концептуальный прорыв в создании электромобиля следующего поколения


Губернаторы России
Яндекс

В Hybrid Platform обновлена интеграция с Яндекс.Метрикой


Когда слово объединяет: ГПМ Радио приглашает на «Тотальный диктант»

СМИ: Пашу Техника похоронят в Москве

Ведущие ГПМ Радио – Санкт-Петербург станут чтецами «Тотального диктанта»

Заказать Напосим 10 Воркута


На надгробной табличке Бедроса Киркорова поправили дату смерти

При падении машины с пятого этажа парковки в Москве погибла педагог Гнесинки

В Московской области завершился второй этап федерального проекта «КЛАССИКА ДЛЯ ВСЕЙ СЕМЬИ»

Клава Кока выступит перед матчем «Зенит» — «Краснодар», перед игрой с «Химками» — Лепс, перед «Пари НН» — «Дискотека Авария»


Теннисистка Касаткина потерпела первое поражение под флагом Австралии

Медведев сыграет с Хачановым в первом круге турнира ATP в Монте-Карло

12-е место в мировом рейтинге WTA, нелюбовь к России и нетрадиционная ориентация Касаткиной

Странный спорт – Медведев пошутил о теннисе


Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this


В Москве стартовал главный театральный фестиваль России

«Авторадио»: 32 года вместе со слушателями

ТОП-5 лазерных устройств для татуажа в 2025 году: что нужно знать?

Московский Экономический Форум: главное


Сергей Собянин: Построим и реконструируем семь городских вокзалов

Проект Группы Продовольствие получил поддержку на краевом уровне.

Руководитель фракции КПРФ в Мособлдуме Александр Наумов посетил отчет главы г.о. Домодедово

На курорте «Манжерок» состоялся Чемпионат СибМастерс среди любителей и ветеранов горнолыжного спорта


Глава ФРС Пауэлл: из-за увеличения пошлин в США возможен всплеск инфляции

РАСКРЫТ ПЛАН ЯПОНИИ ПО ЗАХВАТУ США И... РОССИИ? СЕНСАЦИЯ! МОЖНО УЛУЧШИТЬ ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ! Новости. В.В. Путин, Дональд Трамп. Россия, США, Европа могут улучшить отношения и здоровье общества?!

Парки Сергиево-Посадского округа готовятся к «Лету в Подмосковье»

В лицее Одинцова прошла конференция базовой школы РАН с международным участием


Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this


Путин в России и мире
Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this



Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine



Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this



Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

Персональные новости Russian.city
Вячеслав Бутусов

«Результат перманентного покаяния»: Бутусов рассказал о новом альбоме «Мертвец»



News Every Day

Darts star leaks World Championship payslip as he reveals long list of ‘deductions’ left him with just £5,200 winnings




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости