‘Anora’ up, Denzel Washington and Angelina Jolie down: What SAG Awards nominations mean for the Oscars

The 2025 Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations sent a shockwave through the Oscars race, boosting top contenders like Anora, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked while dealing potentially trajectory-altering blows to Sing Sing, Angelina Jolie, and Denzel Washington.

Here’s what the SAG Awards nominations mean for the Oscars.

Anora is back – but maybe it never left

After the Golden Globes blanked Anora on Sunday, it felt like Sean Baker’s madcap comedy might not pay off its status as an early Best Picture frontrunner. But the actors’ guild gave the Neon film a jolt, scoring nominations for ensemble, Film Actress for Mikey Madison, and Film Supporting Actor for Yura Borisov. Madison was long considered a lock in the Gold Derby odds, and Anora hung on to the fifth position before the nomination announcement. But the Borisov nomination was a surprise (he had been in seventh place in the odds). The Russian star, largely unknown to Western audiences before the Anora release, getting nominated ahead of industry legends like Denzel Washington and Stanley Tucci proves the film has resonated within the acting community (or at least the SAG nominating committee). If Anora wins Best Picture in March, it will join fellow Best Picture winners The Hurt Locker, Spotlight, and CODA as movies that got shut out by the Golden Globes but went all the way.

The Brutalist is fine

Few expected a significant showing from The Brutalist at the SAG Awards beyond Adrien Brody in Film Actor and Guy Pearce in Film Supporting Actor. But the A24 epic couldn’t secure both bids, with Pearce getting snubbed. However, the Golden Globes winner for Best Drama never seemed competitive in the ensemble race (it stood in seventh place in the odds), nor in the Film Supporting Actress category, where Felicity Jones also closed in seventh place before the nominations. But maybe The Brutalist didn’t need to overperform at SAG: Brady Corbet received a nomination from the Directors Guild on Wednesday afternoon, and the film is widely predicted to score several BAFTA nominations next week. As for Jones, her status as an Oscar nominee is in flux anyway, mainly because Best Supporting Actress is so competitive this year beyond expected nominations for Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande. The unpredictableness of that race showed its teeth on Wednesday, as Jones’s fellow supporting actress hopefuls Isabella Rossellini, Margaret Qualley, and Selena Gomez were also ignored by the SAG Awards.

Angelina Jolie is in serious trouble

This time last week, most pundits expected the Maria star to secure an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. That potential result is now in doubt, as her candidacy hangs by a thread. Following her BAFTA longlists snub and Golden Globes loss, Jolie was left off the SAG Awards roster of Film Actress contenders, presumably in favor of her fellow Globes drama actress nominee Pamela Anderson. It’s always possible Jolie could rebound in the race, much like another lead actress in a film by Pablo Larrain. In 2022, Kristen Stewart lost at the Golden Globes and was snubbed by the BAFTA Awards and SAG Awards for Spencer before she secured a surprise Oscar nomination. The difference is that critics widely embraced Stewart’s performance – she led the precursors with several regional award wins – while Jolie hasn’t won a single significant critics’ prize. The critics don’t always matter when it comes to the Academy Awards, but without a loud drumbeat of passionate support behind her performance, Jolie is in danger of missing an Oscar nomination next week.

Denzel Washington might face an uphill battle to a nomination as well

A similar fate could befall Washington. Few actors are as beloved as the two-time Oscar winner, but the Gladiator II star missed his expected ninth SAG Award nomination, which could push him out of the Oscars field. Most critics and viewers have called Washington’s performance in Ridley Scott’s sword-and-sandals sequel the best part of the film. Still, the noise around Gladiator II has greatly diminished over the last several weeks – especially as its Wickiator companion, Wicked, continues to surge with the industry and critics’ groups. That puts Washington on thin ice, mainly because the performance never felt like the kind of work that would secure the screen legend the No. 1 or No. 2 votes on the ranked-choice ballot to hold off someone like Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice or even Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, each of whom has vocal supporters. If Washington does miss the Oscar nod, it feels like the overall lack of enthusiasm for the film will be to blame. 

Sing Sing fails to launch

Not that Maclin is necessarily in safer waters. The Sing Sing star missed the SAG Awards on Wednesday; worse, the film failed to secure a place among the ensemble cast nominees. That’s a shocking outcome: Sing Sing was widely predicted for months to become a SAG Film Ensemble nominee and, based on the group’s history – where the casts of Parasite, CODA, and Everything Everywhere All At Once – could have even secured a much-needed victory at the upcoming ceremony. As it stands now, with Colman Domingo the only Sing Sing SAG nominee, the A24 drama’s place in the Best Picture field is unstable. Because it is a little-seen film without much potential in below-the-line categories, Sing Sing needed the acting branch to carry it to the Oscars and secure that Best Picture nomination.