How much of a threat does Venezuela’s exiled opposition pose to the rule of Nicolás Maduro?

Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, will be sworn in as president for a record third term on January 10, four months after being declared the winner of the country’s highly contentious election. Maduro will receive the standard obeisance from his cronies and will hug the limelight, but plenty of Venezuelans will have very little to celebrate.

Both Maduro and opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is currently in hiding, have urged their supporters on to the streets on inauguration day. In a video message released on January 5, Machado said that Maduro will not step down on his own and that the Venezuelan people “must make him leave”.

Since Maduro assumed office in 2013, nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country. Once proud and rich citizens of one of the most successful economies in Latin America, these refugees and migrants have been forced out of their homes due to grave political and economic mismanagement. Meanwhile, millions of others, too afraid or unable to flee, silently endure grinding socioeconomic instability and violent political persecution.

However, hopes of an end to his rule were raised in July 2024. A mild-mannered former diplomat named Edmundo González decided to take on Maduro as the opposition candidate in the country’s presidential election, and surged ahead in the polls. Venezuela’s highest court had barred the immensely popular Machado from running.

According to external observers, González won the popular vote and should have been sworn in as the president. But Maduro, who had publicly stated there would be a “bloodbath” across the country if he did not win the election, was declared as the winner by the government-aligned National Electoral Council. The electoral authorities did not provide detailed vote counts, only adding to suspicion.

The alleged rigging of the vote was strongly condemned by the international community. In November, the US government even recognised González as the “president-elect”, with the secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, taking to social media platform X to demand “respect for the will” of Venezuelan voters. Facing political reprisal, González first hid in the Dutch embassy in Caracas, and later fled to Spain where he was granted asylum.

In recent weeks, González has returned to Latin America (with a stop in the US) on a tour to garner political support to oust Maduro. Rattled by González’s popularity within Venezuela and his very influential external support base, Maduro’s regime has offered a US$100,000 (£81,000) reward for information leading to his arrest. If González does turn up at the time of Maduro’s inauguration, as he has promised to do, there is also an arrest warrant waiting for him issued by a Venezuelan judge.

The critical question now is whether Maduro’s regime has reached a tipping point from where it can be dethroned with a little jolt?

Treading familiar territory

Venezuela has thrown up many challengers to Maduro’s rule in recent years. In the wake of elections in 2018 that were widely regarded as fraudulent, a lawmaker named Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s president until free and fair elections could be held. He was, unsurprisingly, soon forced out of the country.

Helped by international backers, such as the US and Spain, Guaidó sought to lead an anti-Maduro popular revolution from outside Venezuela. However, the revolution never really took off. This was partly due to the government’s crackdown on the opposition and also to the lack of sustained international support for Guaidó.

Machado has fared little in her endeavour, too. Her campaign to end Maduro’s authoritarian rule has faced major roadblocks with González fleeing the country. And there’s a lack of political urgency in her campaign to bring about what she has called “a peaceful and orderly transition”. Maduro is simply not listening to – nor is he afraid of – Machado, González or anyone else.

The Maduro regime follows a well-trodden strategy to get rid of potential opposition leaders. It forces them into exile, discredits them on charges of anti-national activities and, worse still, imprisons them. With all the organs of government institutions on his regime’s payroll, Maduro has little difficulty discrediting and weakening those who challenge his authority.

Under these circumstances, the chances of González making any serious dent on Maduro’s political future remains unlikely. While the US, Argentina and many other countries have recognised González as Venezuela’s rightful president, the possibility of an externally orchestrated plan to rid Venezuela of its corrupt regime is extremely low.

If Cuba’s former revolutionary president, Fidel Castro, could relish in the fact that he outlived 11 US presidents, Maduro can certainly hope to ride out this political storm, having already outlasted three.

The only possible hope for change lies in the hands of Venezuelans. However, many of those capable of orchestrating a popular revolution have fled the country. And the Venezuelans left behind belong to two categories: those on the payroll of the Maduro government, and those too weak, powerless and diffident to engage in anything politically meaningful. Venezuela, it seems, has been truly orphaned.

Amalendu Misra is a recipient of British Academy and Nuffield Foundation Fellowships.