Ranking NFL head coach opening by desirability
Which open NFL head coaching job is the best? Let’s rank them.
Unemployment is an unfortunate fact of life for an NFL head coach.
Some of the game’s greatest have been let go from a position, or found it hard to crack back into the head coaching fraternity after changing jobs. After all, Bill Belichick could not find a job last offseason, and is now headed to Chapel Hill as the new head coach at the University of North Carolina.
So when it comes to picking a head coaching opportunity, it might pay to be selective. Sure, opportunities might not come along every cycle, but some opportunities are better than others.
At the moment, there are five head coaching opportunities available in the NFL. Let’s rank them by desirability.
5. New Orleans Saints
The biggest knock against the Saints is their salary cap mess. Whoever is taking over this team is being put in a position to inherit a lot, and not much of it is good. At quarterback it’s clear that Spencer Rattler ain’t it, meaning you have to have at least some faith in Derek Carr. Alvin Kamara is brilliant, but he’s not getting any younger — and outside of Chris Olave there isn’t much on hang your hat on.
The saving grace is the defense, particularly the defensive line. It’s a lot better than it gets credit for and there’s a solid building block here with Brian Breese, but Chase Young is set to become a free agent, and that means there are some tough decisions to make.
Chickens are coming home to roost with the Saints living on borrowed time against the salary cap. At it stands they’re already projected to be a staggering $72M over the cap in 2025 — meaning a lot of tough decisions need to be made in order to get this team moving forward. Ultimately though a coach who takes over the Saints inherits a 5-12 with at least enough pieces to win games with better leadership.
Can’t say that about every team on this list.
4. New York Jets
Two words for whoever decides to lead the Jets: Good luck.
The Jets completely reformed their franchise to appease Aaron Rodgers and build around him, and it didn’t work. Now they’re a shell of a team with a few really good players, but a mess from top to bottom.
New York is about to pick at No. 7 in a shallow QB pool. They will not find a decent quarterback in this draft class, and have nobody in the organization who can step up. This likely means they’ll need to find someone in free agency, which could result in a Kirk Cousins-led team, at least in 2025.
When you couple this with the inconsistency from the front office it makes for a bad mix. The Jets will be bringing in a new general manager to pair with the coach, but Woody Johnson is a horrific owner who makes changes at a whim without any real understanding of football.
New York is also expected to have roughly $19M in cap space, which isn’t enough space to really work free agency and rebuild the roster. Essentially any coach coming in will need to understand they need to work with what they’ve got with only a few incremental improvements, and hope they can get enough rope to build this franchise over time without getting fired first.
This is a horrific job for any promising coach to walk into, and whatever hire the Jets end up making it’s unlikely to be a transformative hire because of how bad their situation is.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
So there’s a bit of good and bad when it comes to the Jaguars’ head coaching gig. The good is that there’s quite a bit of talent on the Jaguars’ roster! Despite a down year that ended with injury, I think QB Trevor Lawrence is very good, rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr is sensational, and the defense has two cornerstone pass rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, along with a quality starting corner in Tyson Campbell. You also have no state tax in Florida, and an owner in Shad Khan who is lenient, to a fault.
The bad part is you have to work with noted coach killer Trent Baalke, who is retaining his spot as GM despite having some truly awful free agent signings. Baalke is known for throwing his coaches under the bus to save his own head when the axe comes chopping down, and in the hypothetical that it doesn’t work out in Jacksonville, Baalke more than likely has the edge over you. In addition, it seems like owner Shad Khan only has Baalke in his ear when it comes to making football decisions, so there’s a little bit of power playing going on.
Other than that massive elephant in the room, it’s a great job. But if you’re willing to take on the Baalke project, more power to you.
2. New England Patriots
First, the negative side of the ledger.
The Patriots’ roster needs a complete overhaul. We can start on the offensive side of the ball, where the offensive line needs to be reworked, questions remain at wide receiver, and while Drake Maye looks like the franchise quarterback Patriots fans are hoping for, nothing is certain.
On defense, Christian Gonzalez is a legitimate CB1 — and Patriots fans might be disappointed that any dreams of pairing him with Travis Hunter Jr. for the foreseeable future flew out the window in Week 18 — and there are some other pieces in place, but help is needed here too.
You are also stepping into a situation where the last head coach was given just one year to succeed.
Now the positives. It does look like you have the quarterback, which solves one big issue other teams on this list face. You’re holding the fourth-overall pick, and you have a league-high $131.6 MILLION IN CAP SPACE.
New England might have to pay a premium to draw free agents to Foxborough, but they can certainly afford it.
Yes, there is work to do, but the resources are in place.
As well as the QB.
1. Chicago Bears
The Bears have a lot of holes, but it’s tough to imagine a better situation to walk into during this coaching cycle. Essentially anyone who give Caleb Williams some protection and freedom to work will be set on offense.
Williams’ first season wasn’t always pretty, but there were some extremely promising flashes. He didn’t turn the ball over much, was good at creating out-of-structure. If someone can develop him further when it comes to recognizing real pressure vs. imagined pressure he’ll be a much better quarterback. Someone who can win a lot in the NFL.
The biggest issue right now is the offensive line, which is a disaster in Chicago. A lot of the team’s investments haven’t paid off, so they’ll need to totally rework the protection for Caleb’s second season. Thankfully the organization has a whopping $60M in protected cap space, which is easily enough to find players in free agency who can help out.
Defensively the Bears are a lot better than most realize. They were 13th in the NFL in points allowed, with Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter being a fairly solid pass rush duo, and something to build on. Couple that with standout corner Jaylon Johnson and all the pieces are here to take a big step forward.
That’s a heck of an intriguing package for a head coach. The only downside is being paired with lame duck GM Ryan Poles, who needs to get immediately results to save his job. Still, the Bears are in the driver’s seat to be the best team for a coach to land on, and there’s a lot of reason to believe they can be much better in 2025.