Virginia special elections test Democratic enthusiasm as Trump takes office

Virginia is holding the first special election of the year in what is being billed as a test for Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the state’s gubernatorial race later this year. 

Democrats are widely expected to hold a state House and state Senate seat in Loudoun County outside of Washington, D.C., while Republicans are expected to hold a Senate seat outside of Richmond. 

Virginia Del. Kannan Srinivasan (D) is facing off against Republican Tumay Harding in the 32nd Senate District, which was previously held by now-Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D). Meanwhile, Democrat JJ Singh is going up against Republican Ram Venkatachalam for Srinivasan’s seat in the 26th state House district. In the 10th Senate district, Republican Luther Cifers and Democrat Jack Trammell are both hoping to fill now-Rep. John McGuire’s (R-Va.) former seat. 

Democrats hold small majorities in both of Virginia’s legislative chambers. In the likely scenario that Republicans keep the 10th Senate district seat, a loss in either or both of the Loudoun County-area seats could throw the party’s grip on power in Richmond into jeopardy. 

But the special elections are mostly expected to be early tests of enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats in the state, though the off year coupled with a winter storm pummeling the region could lower turnout. 

How does winter storm impact turnout?

Off-year special elections normally elicit low turnout, given less coverage and hype around the races. Additionally, fewer voters tend to pay attention to state-level elections, especially without a high-profile federal race leading the ballot. 

Throwing a winter storm into the mix could be a recipe for even lower turnout. 

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm, which as of Monday afternoon brought several inches to the greater D.C. metro area. An estimated additional one to two inches was expected to accumulate on Monday evening. Further south in the greater Richmond area, thousands of homes were left without power and schools were closed on Monday. 

The snow is expected to subside by Tuesday, but Monday’s inclement weather could still have an impact on whether voters make it out to the polls, particularly on the roads. High temperatures in the Loudoun County area are expected to be around freezing on Monday, while in Richmond the highs are expected to be above freezing. 

How enthused are Democrats?

While the two Loudoun County-area races are expected to go blue on Tuesday, November’s presidential elections did highlight some areas of concern around enthusiasm in the Democratic stronghold. 

President Biden won the county by 26 points in 2020 while Harris won it by 16 points. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) won the county by 11 points in his unsuccessful second bid for governor against Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in 2021, which saw lower turnout in a non-presidential year.

Democrats have signaled they are not taking the two races for granted. Last month, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee named Srinivasan and Singh to its “spotlight” program, which allows the committee to support the two candidates with fundraising and organizing. On top of that, the DLCC says it announced it was pouring $100,000 into Virginia’s legislative caucuses ahead of next month’s special elections. 

In their messaging, Virginia Democrats have emphasized the races are essential to fortifying what they call the Democratic firewall in the states in response to the federal Republican trifecta in Washington. 

"2025 is a big year in Virginia and it starts with winning these crucial special elections to defend Democratic majorities and ensure the Democratic-led legislature can stand up to the extremism of Donald Trump and Glenn Youngkin," Roger Lau, DNC deputy executive director, said in a statement to The Hill. 

Does either party overperform?

Both Democrats and the GOP will be quick to point to Tuesday’s elections should their party overperform expectations in any way.

Unlike the Loudoun County area districts, Republicans have a strong chance of keeping McGuire’s seat in the Richmond area. Over 62 percent of the district’s voters went for Trump in the last election, while close to 70 percent went for Youngkin in 2021. 

However, the chances of either party overperforming are probably slim.

As of November, there were roughly 177,000 in the 10th Senate District, 155,000 in the 32nd Senate District, and 58,000 in the 26th House District. Voters do not register by party in Virginia.