Tuesday's special elections in Virginia could give early insight into governor race, 2026 midterms

A trio of special elections Tuesday in Virginia will give Americans their first look at suburban voting trends for the 2025 gubernatorial sweeps and 2026 midterms.

A federal election shakeup last cycle in once-deep-red Loudoun County led a pair of state lawmakers to vacate their seats and announce bids for the next legislative level above them.

Loudoun, halfway between Charles Town, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C., has trended blue in recent years amid exurban sprawl from liberal Washingtonians leaving the District of Columbia – and has been the epicenter of national controversies over transgender policies and in-school assaults.

Additionally, the upset of now-former U.S. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., in Lynchburg set the stage for a third special election as Democrats control the Virginia state Senate by a sole vote amid Republican Glenn Youngkin’s governorship.

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While Democrats appear favored in the pair of Loudoun races, political watchers are keying into Republicans’ performance in the albeit typically low-turnout affairs as a sign of things to come once Youngkin is term-limited from his perch later this year.

Virginia and New Jersey – two states where President-elect Trump and the GOP overperformed but still lost – host odd-year governorship elections that the mogul’s 2024 performance already presaged as must-watch.

Youngkin’s performance in Loudoun and other blue counties didn’t win him the areas outright but drew enough votes from former Gov. Terry McAuliffe to score a major statewide upset in 2021. 

The GOP is hoping for a similar performance this fall, and a win in both the one Loudoun and one Southside Senate seats would shift control of the chamber to Republicans.

A win by Republicans in the delegate seat would also lead to a tied lower chamber, knocking Democrats out of sole leadership. A GOP sweep would give the party full control in Richmond not seen since George W. Bush was president.

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Youngkin told Fox News Digital on Friday he is bullish on Republicans’ chances on Tuesday, saying that the two Loudoun candidates particularly have a chance to build on what he has long dubbed Virginia’s success story:

"Tumay Harding and Ram Venkatachalam are commonsense conservative leaders who will be incredible partners in our work to provide further tax relief for Virginia families, address the most hated car tax, protect our communities from dangerous sanctuary city policies, and keep parents at the head seat of the table in their children’s lives," Youngkin said.

"I look forward to rallying with Tumay, Ram, and Virginians who are ready to bring strong representation for Loudoun County in Richmond."

Delegate Kannan Srinivasan, D-Brambleton, announced a bid to succeed U.S. Rep-elect Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., after the latter won the open seat of retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va.

That left Srinivasan’s House of Delegates seat open. 

Venkatachalam, an Indian immigrant and IT professional for Deloitte, highlighted on his campaign site his positions on several Loudoun community boards, and his focus on lowering taxes and heightening public safety.

Singh, a former adviser to Sen. Christopher Coons, D-Del., and a Peace Corps veteran, is the Democratic candidate.

"Voters are experiencing a range of emotions after Trump won the election – there’s anger, frustration, disappointment, sadness," Singh told Politico.

"But when you communicate the stakes of this special election… the enthusiasm jolts right up."

In turn, Srinivasan – who was then-Gov. Ralph Northam’s appointee to the state Medicaid board – is facing Harding, a teacher and small business owner, for the open state Senate seat surrounding John Foster Dulles International Airport.

In Southside Virginia, with Rep-elect. John McGuire, R-Va., having unseated Good in Congress, his heavily-Republican state Senate district has been left without an occupant.

The sprawling district, covering all or parts of nearly a dozen counties between Interstate 64 and US-460, includes a diverse mix of Richmond exurbs, iconic Civil War sites and agricultural lands.

Professor Jack Trammell, of Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia, is the Democrat facing off against Republican Luther Cifers.

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Cifers, who grew up in a farming area outside Amelia Court House, Virginia, and now owns a company specializing in kayaking and fishing products, is heavily favored based on historical data.

"I’m not a politician, but I believe our government functions best when working citizens participate," Cifers said in a statement on his website.

Meanwhile, Trammell said in a statement released by the Henrico Democrats that he and his volunteers have been "out across the district talking to voters at events, on their porches, and over the phone."