Muslim, Arab voters face uncertain political future under Trump
Muslim and Arab American voters in the U.S. face an uncertain political future as President-elect Trump prepares to take office later this month.
Long considered a reliable part of the Democratic base, Muslim Americans scrambled the political calculus in 2024 amid growing fury over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with many abandoning the party altogether.
Now, many Muslim and Arab Americans say they are without a clear political home, angry for what they say was Democrats’ refusal to heed their warnings and anxious about what a Trump presidency means for both them and the conflicts in the Middle East.
“That home is not as solid anymore,” said Haris Tarin, the vice president of policy and programming for the Muslim Public Affairs Council, referring to the Democratic Party as a political “home.” “Post-9/11 it was quite solid in many ways, specifically because of civil rights issues, but I think that vote is no longer as solid as many thought.”
Although President Biden easily clinched enough delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee during his run and Vice President Harris quickly wrapped up the nomination after Biden dropped out, both saw significant discontent among Democratic voters who wanted more of a choice.
This was particularly organized around those who opposed the administration’s support for Israel amid its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Two major campaigns organized during Biden’s candidacy and continued with Harris’s candidacy based around this frustration, one encouraging voters to vote “Uncommitted” in the primaries and remain that way unless the candidate agrees to certain policies, such as putting conditions on aid to Israel.
The other one was an “Abandon” campaign, calling on voters to reject the Democratic ticket altogether. That group ultimately endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while the Uncommitted movement came out against Trump’s candidacy but avoided endorsing Harris.
Both groups particularly sought to appeal to Muslim Americans frustrated with the administration and those who sympathize with them. They argued that warning signs existed for Democrats with these voters who couldn’t be counted on to back the ticket as they had reliably done for the past two decades.
The exact breakdown varies based on exit polls conducted and the location, but the results widely showed a significant shift in voting behavior compared to past elections.
An exit poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found Stein won among American Muslims nationwide, with 53 percent of the vote compared to 21 percent for Trump and 20 percent for Harris. One specifically for Michigan showed Stein ahead with 59 percent to Trump’s 22 percent and Harris’s 14 percent.
Polling ahead of the election from CAIR also found Harris struggling with this group that had overwhelmingly voted for Democrats this century.
After the election, the Abandon movement is seeking to have this moment mark a turning point in the political identity for Muslim Americans to not feel beholden to any one side.
“Now we're sort of going to build towards a collective whose loyalty does not belong to either party or any party, for that matter, even the Green Party,” said Hudhayfah Ahmad, who served as a spokesperson for the movement. “We want to build a collective that votes based on morals and principles.”
Ahmad said the movement is expecting that Trump will “absolutely disappoint” in his second term and will tell people they should try a “third way.”
“It's not about winning — it's about changing the conversation,” he said. “It's not about winning. It's about doing the right thing. Winning isn't important because we've sacrificed a lot of our principles in the name of winning, in the name of lesser-evilism, in the name of some... greater good that never really materialized.”
Tarin said Muslim Americans want politicians to earn their vote and the lesson is: “You need to listen to us. You need to engage us.”
“I think that's a newer thing for this community. Historically they haven't had that level of responsiveness for a few years in the Democratic Party because of civil rights issues,” he said.
A few advocates involved in Muslim or Arab American organizations mentioned the frustrations that those voters felt with no Palestinian American speaker being allowed to address the Democratic National Convention in the summer.
James Zogby, the president of the Arab American Institute, noted that having a Palestinian speaker had support from numerous people, including the Israeli American family who addressed the convention, and that those who blocked it were “out of touch” with where the electorate was.
Zogby noted that Muslim Americans and Arab Americans often are conflated as the same group, even though most Muslims are not Arab and most Arab Americans are not Muslim.
But both groups received attention over their frustration and supported the Democratic ticket less than in the past, posing possible warning signs for the future.
In the majority-Arab city of Dearborn, Mich., Trump won a plurality of the vote after Biden overwhelmingly won it in 2020.
The Arab American Institute found Biden won among Arab Americans by 25 points in 2020, but Zogby said this year the community was probably an “even split.” He said every other demographic group was represented on stage at the DNC, but not someone of Arab descent, and the administration wasn’t willing to change its stance.
“This is a wound in the heart that's going to take a long time to heal,” Zogby said. “Will it be decisive in elections? I don't know. It depends on the candidates, and it depends on the policy mix, the other issues at stake.”
Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of Emgage, which works to educate and rally Muslim voters to be civically active, noted that while the Muslim community was more divided in their vote, they were still united on their policy stance.
“Unlike typical fracturing, this wasn't people fighting about a position on gun violence or abortion. Everyone was saying, ‘We need to end the war.’ We want the hostages to come home. We want humanitarian aid to be delivered,” he said. “But the tactic of how we want to get there, there was different approaches, and obviously and unfortunately, none of it worked, that the war is still ongoing.”
“Obviously, now the community is grappling with two issues. One is the war still continuing and Trump is returning,” Alzayat added.
But the fact that Muslim voters were largely on the same page despite their ultimate choice at the polls shows how either side can try to win them over in the future, advocates said.
“I don't think the Democrats have necessarily lost the American Muslim world forever, or Republicans have gained this forever,” Tarin said. “I don't think that’s the case either way.”
But Tarin noted that many Muslim voters didn’t feel enough of a difference between how Trump would address the war and how Biden has been addressing the war. Trump has more recently said he wants the war to end but also reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “Do what you have to do.”
“A lot of people say, ‘Well, I mean, how much worse can Trump be on Gaza?’” Tarin said. “That's a line that you hear quite often in American Muslim communities. How much worse can he do? What has Biden not done or not allowed Netanyahu to do that Trump would allow him to do so on that issue, it's really hard.”
Adding to the uncertainty for the demographic going forward is renewed concerns over Islamic terrorism in the wake of a deadly attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, which has been linked to a suspect with apparent ties to ISIS. What this means for the American Muslim community under Trump obviously remains to be seen.
Alzayat said one reason for hope is Muslim voters demonstrated their political power and that they need to be taken seriously and be listened to.
“If you have 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, and 70 percent of them voted for Democrats in 2020, and only 30 percent of them voted for Democrats in 2024 that's an 80,000-vote swing,” he said. “That's too large of a margin to ignore.”