Free Agent Profile: Caleb Ferguson, RP
Caleb Ferguson
Position: RP B/T: R/L
Age: 28 (7/2/1996)
2024 Traditional Stats: 62 G, 54 1/3 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.491 WHIP, 67 SO, 25 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 88 ERA+, 26.9 K%, 10.0 BB%, 4.14 xERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 0.3 fWAR
Rundown
Caleb Ferguson had an extremely interesting 2024 season. Ferguson struggled mightily with the New York Yankees to begin the year, before being traded to the Houston Astros in July. Following the deal, across 21 innings, Ferguson posted a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 FIP with the Astros, after holding marks of 5.13 and 4.28, respectively, with the Yankees.
Ferguson, as a left-handed pitcher, does exactly what southpaws are expected to do. He excelled against left-handed hitting in 2024, allowing a .662 OPS. Over his career, lefties hold an OPS just a shade over .700. Interestingly enough, the same goes for right-handed hitters. So, Ferguson has shown the ability to succeed against both, which is helpful due to the three-batter minimum rule.
Over his career as a whole, Ferguson’s best work came over his five-year stint to begin his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers. With L.A., he posted a 3.43 ERA, including an outlier 2019 season where his ERA inflated to 4.84. Outside of that season, his ERA was sub-3.50 across the other four.
Ferguson has relied on a relatively high strikeout rate over his career (27.5%) to get hitters out. He has a four-pitch mix, featuring a four-seam fastball, cutter, slurve, and sinker. The best of which has always been his cutter. One of the areas that does get Ferguson in trouble is his walk rate; his 9.4% career average is almost a full percentage point over the big-league average.
Contract
Last season, the Columbus, Ohio native made $2.4 million. Now, a free agent, and off the back of a very strong showing to end the season with Houston, he will likely get a raise. How large is of course the question.
Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections only project a $3 million deal for Ferguson. This seems a tad low for a reliever, who can get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out, who posted a 2.88 FIP to end the season. Regardless, the deal Ferguson ends up getting, do not expect it to break the bank; say, something in the $4-to$7 million range.
Recommendation
Ferguson is certainly an intriguing option. As has been well documented this offseason, the Mets and president of baseball operations, David Stearns, still have a lot to do in addressing the bullpen. As it stands, the Mets do not have an established left-handed reliever in their projected bullpen. Danny Young is currently the top option, however, he has only 52 1/3 major-league innings under his belt. The Mets also have Génesis Cabrera and Anthony Gose, but they are both non-roster invitees to spring training.
Ferguson has shown throughout his career to be effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, which helps tremendously given the three-batter minimum rule. Not only would he fill a left-handed specialist-type of role for the Mets, but he could also be relied upon to get right-handed hitters out as well. If his new teams get the pitcher he was with the Astros to end the season, and the pitcher he was for the majority of his Dodgers career, he can be a force at a relatively cheap price tag.
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