HTS win in Syria rings alarm bells in Egypt

CAIRO: The Islamist takeover of Syria has left Egypt apprehensive and cautiously calibrating future ties, years after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power by toppling the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egypt backed president Bashar al-Assad until the eleventh hour, and with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now in control in Syria, it worries what impact the change might have.

“For Egypt, this creates of course apprehension, especially given the Brotherhood’s history in the country,” said Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East Programme at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington.

Several other Arab states moved swiftly to engage with the new authorities in Damascus, while Cairo has exercised greater caution.

International flights to and from Damascus to resume on Tuesday

Having declared Egypt’s support for Assad just three days before his ouster, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty waited three weeks before calling his new Syrian counterpart and urged the de facto authorities to practise “inclusivity”.

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani confirmed the call had taken place, and said that the two countries shared a role in “achieving stability and prosperity for region”. On Saturday, an Egyptian aid plane touched down at Damascus airport carrying Cairo’s first humanitarian aid delivery since Assad’s ousting, the Egyptian foreign ministry said.

In the days following the overthrow of Assad, Sisi’s comments were non-committal.

“Those who make the decisions in Syria are the people of the country,” he said. “They can either destroy it or rebuild it,” he told a gathering of state-affiliated media figures.

“Egypt’s reaction has been massively cautious,” Mirette Mabrouk, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said. “Here you have non-state actors as well as Islamists which are both Egypt’s red flags.” Domestically, Cairo has moved against any possibility that events in Syria might inspire unrest at home.

According to the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, a rights group, the security forces detained 30 Syrians celebrating Assad’s fall, with three of them facing deportation.

The authorities also tightened visa restrictions for Syrians, requiring them to receive security clearance. In the hours after Assad was toppled, state-aligned media hailed Egypt’s stability in the face of regional turmoil.

It broadcast a montage combining scenes of unrest, military drills and development projects, accompanied by a 2017 speech in which Sisi —AFPclaimed that forces behind the war in Syria could turn their sights on Egypt.

“Their mission in Syria is complete,” Sisi said at the time, adding that “their goal is to bring down the Egyptian state.” Anger was further stoked by the sharing online of a photograph of Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa posing alongside Mahmoud Fathi, a Muslim Brotherhood figure who was sentenced to death in absentia for the assassination of Egypt’s former public prosecutor Hisham Barakat.

Lebanese authorities also arrested Egyptian opposition activist Abdul Rahman al-Qaradawi on an Egyptian warrant after he celebrated Assad’s fall online.

Flights to resume operations

Syria said on Saturday the country’s main airport in Damascus would resume international flights starting next week after such commercial trips were halted following last month’s ousting of president Bashar al-Assad.

“We announce we will start receiving international flights to and from Damascus International Airport from” Tuesday, state news agency SANA said, quoting Ashhad al-Salibi, who heads the General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport.

“We reassure Arab and international airlines that we have begun the phase of rehabilitating the Aleppo and Damascus airports with our partners’ help, so that they can welcome flights from all over the world,” he said. International aid planes and foreign diplomatic delegations have already been landing in Syria. Domestic flights have also resumed.

Syrian Airlines will resume flights from Damascus to Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, starting on Tuesday, an employee said.

On Thursday, Qatar Airways announced it would resume flights to the Syrian capital after nearly 13 years, starting with three weekly flights from Tuesday. A Qatari official said last month that Doha had offered the new Syrian authorities help in resuming operations at Damascus airport.

On Dec 18, the first flight since religious-led fighters ousted Assad on Dec 8 took off from Damascus airport to Aleppo in the country’s north, eyewitness saw.

Shifting dynamics

Assad’s fall has upended the Middle East’s geopolitical balance, diminishing the influence of Iran while significantly boosting Turkiye.

While Iran backed Assad, Turkiye had for decades backed Syria’s opposition. For Egypt, Turkiye’s win is cause for concern, given the two powers’ long-standing rivalry.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cut ties with Sisi after the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they remained frozen for a decade until a recent rapprochement.

“Of course, there’s the regional overlay, which is this being backed most closely by Turkiye, Egypt’s regional rival and a Muslim Brotherhood-aligned regime,” said David Schenker a top former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2025