Is ayatollah’s Islamic regime in Tehran beginning to shake from summer of turmoil?
JERUSALEM – Murmurings about the stability of the Islamic Regime in Iran are beginning to be looked at more seriously, as the dust begins to settle on the period of the last few months, which have been some of the most tumultuous in the country’s recent history.
A foreign policy with regard to Israel, which relied on the strength of its proxy armies in the several countries encircling the Jewish state (despite Khamanei’s meaningless protestations to the contrary) – the so-called “Ring of Fire” – painstakingly assembled over decades largely lies in tatters. His main ally in the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, former secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, was killed along with his most senior lieutenants in a two-month period from the end of July to the end of September.
Israel’s exploding beeper and walkie talkie operation exposed lapses in both Hezbollah and Iran’s organizational structures, revealing the depths to which Mossad intelligence agents had penetrated both. To that end, the hugely embarrassing elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanlyeh on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps turf in the heart of Tehran was seemingly the catalyst for series of events potentially catastrophic for the regime.
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While the official Iranian media and the speeches of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei try to present regional developments as a summer cloud that Tehran will disperse, we as researchers monitoring the political, military and security movements internally, regionally and… pic.twitter.com/AD2HZItbTP— Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي (@evacool_) December 31, 2024
Perhaps the portents for Iran were less than stellar when we regard its initial ballistic missile strike on Israel on April 13. Having fired more than 300 projectiles, including cruise missiles and drones, many did not make it out of Iranian airspace, the majority that did were shot down by a previously unlikely coalition of Israel, the U.S., France, the U.K., Jordan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia – the latter three not allowing their country’s airspace to be used as flyover country for Iranian missiles. Israel’s response too, which some considered too subtle, actually impressed many in defense establishments across the world, who understood Israel had taken out a critical radar station with an ingenious new missile.
Iran’s October mass missile strike, where it launched some 180 projectiles, was more successful, not least because Israel could not count on the same coalition as six months previously. However, the upshot of this attack was an Israeli reprisal, which comprised of a third to a half of the entire Israeli airforce taking out all of Iran’s surface-to-air missile defense capabilities.
Israeli warplanes had the freedom of the skies over Tehran, and were entirely unmolested, either by Iranian fighter jets or modern anti-aircraft systems. The footage of flak guns blasting into the Tehran night sky against Israel’s state-of-the-art fighters, was pitiful.
Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei defended his country’s involvement in Syria’s civil war Wednesday at an event to mark the fifth anniversary of the assassination of Quds Force leader General Qasem Soleimani in a U.S. airstrike ordered by President-elect Donald Trump.
Indeed, there are hints, if one knows where to look for them, that this one individual has never been adequately replaced. His influence over strategy and planning seemingly so complete that his absence cannot be filled.
Khamanei responded to criticism of his country’s defense of Shia Islamic shrines in Syria – at the cost of significant men and treasure – saying, “some people lack the proper analysis and understanding.”
According to the Iran International website, Iran has promoted the narrative of the defense of these shrines in both Syria and Iraq – much like Hamas and other Palestinian Islamist groups do with al-Aqsa – as a justification for military presence there.
“Shi’a Islamic holy sites, particularly the Shrine of Sayyida Zainab in Damascus, Syria. Sayyida Zainab was the granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad. However, following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Khamenei’s rhetoric expanded beyond shrine defense, openly advocating an all-out war against Israel.”
However, according to Middle Eastern analyst Eva Koulouriotis, there are signals all is not well in Tehran. She predicted the move to stop Iranian-aligned Iraqi militias from firing missiles at Israel, and did so following Assad’s fall in Syria. In comparison with Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran’s Iraqi proxies were used somewhat sparingly, although they were responsible for dozens of missile and drone attacks, one of the latter of which killed two IDF soldiers at a northern army base.
She makes a damning assessment of the Obama stance during the P5+1 negotiations, which led to the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In her assessment, it merely gave Iran the green light to do exactly as Obama had effectively stated he wanted; namely a reorganizing of the balance of power in the Middle East with Iran cast as the hegemon. The apotheosis of this direction of travel was the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023.
Additionally, she points out, as have others that Iran is facing an energy crisis. A rise in fuel prices, frequent power outages and increased commodity prices have added downward pressure on the economy. Matters came to a head earlier this week when the ancient bazaar in Tehran was the scene of protests for what many view as economic mismanagement.
As a result of what the regime perceives to be bubbling unrest, the IRGC has been granted more extensive powers to deal with Iranian cities becoming more restless. It is this increased scrutiny which led to the arrest of the female Italian journalist Cecilia Sala over accusations of “violating the law.” It seems her crime was to collate reports about Iranian women and their experiences in the Islamic Republic.
In conclusion, there has been increased talk recently in the inner circle surrounding Khamenei about his advanced age and that his sudden death would be catastrophic for the cohesion of this regime. This fear has increased even more with the rapid fall of the Assad regime, which… pic.twitter.com/VFdZYrzC71
— Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي (@evacool_) December 31, 2024
After having looked at other factors such as whether the regime has settled on a policy of nuclear deterrence as well as the intense Foreign Ministry activity including a tilt toward Moscow and Beijing, in addition to keeping lines of communication open with Western, and even Arab diplomats, Koulouriotis concludes Iranian decision-makers cast a nervous glance at Syria given the speed with which Assad fell.
Reports about Khamanei’s health, which have been doing the rounds for years, are now viewed with more urgency as he moves into his late 80s. It is thought that if he was to die suddenly, whether he has nominated a successor or not, it might prove catastrophic to the regime.
And above it all sits the Trump factor. In his first term, America’s incoming president showed how he wanted to deal with Iran, creating maximum pressure on the Tehran regime. His Vice President JD Vance seems similarly disposed to think along similar lines. Factor in the Khamanei planned to assassinate Trump, as well as other high-ranking U.S. politicians and the nervousness which is allegedly gripping Tehran may be heightened yet further.