How will the anticipation of a new CBA impact WNBA free agency?
WNBA free agency in 2025 will center on a general manager’s ability to maximize short-term leases.
Forget rebuilds and prolonged roster projects. With the collective-bargaining agreement set to expire in October, there’s no time. This year, expect most free agents to sign one-year contracts in anticipation of a new CBA by 2026, one that comes equipped with higher salaries and improved long-term benefits.
This means GMs will have one thing to sell to the league’s top free agents: the here and now.
A few franchises stand a cut above the rest. The champion Liberty, Lynx, Aces and Fever have realistic title expectations, which gives them an advantage when making their pitches. The Valkyries — the league’s first expansion franchise since 2008 — might not be competing for a title, but they have all the pieces in place to offer a first-class player experience, which will be enticing.
The Mercury are in a sort of purgatory that swiftly can be transformed — because of the upper-echelon practice facility and player amenities — with a clear direction and the right free-agent signings. That direction hinges somewhat on whether Diana Taurasi returns for her 21st season. Last year, the Mercury had one of the best rosters before the season started. Injuries contributed to a disappointing seventh-place finish and first-round sweep by the Lynx.
The Storm will be navigating free agency after an investigation into their coaching staff and a trade request made by their franchise player, Jewell Loyd.
The remaining six teams, including the Sky, will face the uphill battle of selling free agents on an unproven product sans the bells and whistles other franchises can offer. The Sky, Wings, Sparks, Sun, Dream and Mystics have new coaches in place. Unlike the Fever, who poached coach Stephanie White this offseason, their rosters are less than stable. Their six GMs don’t have a realistic case to make for winning now, which will be a priority for most free agents signing those one-year deals.
Free agency officially begins Jan. 11, when qualifying offers can go out to restricted free agents and core tags can be put on the unrestricted.
Kelsey Plum, Satou Sabally, Kelsey Mitchell and Alyssa Thomas are the top free agents. Of course, three-time WNBA champion Breanna Stewart is an unrestricted free agent, but it’s unlikely she’ll land anywhere but back with the Liberty.
All five of these players are just about guaranteed to get core tags. Unlike Stewart, the other four could end up being moved in sign-and-trade deals, specifically Plum and Sabally.
In Las Vegas, there was an overwhelming sense that the team’s “core four” of Wilson, Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray had accomplished all they would together. Aces coach Becky Hammon alluded to a roster shift after her team was eliminated from the playoffs by the Liberty, saying, “It’s not going to be the same group probably next year. It just won’t.”
If Plum moves, the West Coast makes the most immediate sense. One interesting scenario is a sign-and-trade that lands the three-time All-Star in Seattle and brings Loyd to Vegas. Another intriguing landing spot is Los Angeles. The distance between the Aces’ organization and the Sparks’ is vast, but Plum could be a key addition in a turnaround. Neither of these situations puts Plum in a position to win a title in 2025. Re-signing with the Aces offers the best path forward if title-contention is her top priority.
Sabally is arguably the top unrestricted free agent because of her upside. There’s no questioning the Wings’ desire to re-sign her, which will be demonstrated when they implement the core tag. Whether she returns to the Wings ultimately will be her decision. If she wants out, a sign-and-trade will be the Wings’ only move. Expect every team to make a play for Sabally. The ones that have a realistic shot to land her make up a smaller pool.
The Sky might not be in that category of teams with a legitimate shot, but GM Jeff Pagliocca has a cache of draft assets, including the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft, that could at least get him a conversation with the Wings.
Pagliocca’s first order of business will be extending qualifying offers to restricted free agents Dana Evans, Chennedy Carter and Michaela Onyenwere.
A qualifying offer comes with an automatic one-year contract and the right to match any offer extended by another team. While Carter’s stats demonstrated her importance on a failing roster, the Sky’s decision to re-sign her isn’t that simple. The Sky need assurances that she will be reliable on and off the court and will buy into a system that, as coach Tyler Marsh said, will not hinge on one player’s success.
Expect Pagliocca to extend qualifying offers to all three players, but Evans and Carter returning to the Sky is less probable than Onyenwere coming back.
Isabelle Harrison, Diamond DeShields and Brianna Turner are the Sky’s three unrestricted free agents. Harrison was an important player off the bench for the Sky, especially in the second half of 2024. The Sky’s biggest needs are a starting point guard and a strong two-way option on the wing. DiJonai Carrington is a restricted free agent, but if the Sky make an offer the Sun aren’t willing to match, she could be a strong pickup for Pagliocca.
The Sky’s free-agency discussion gets interesting when it comes to the frontcourt because of the development of young stars Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Pagliocca has a slew of star bigs to pursue, including Brionna Jones and Natasha Howard. Neither would be expected to come off the bench in favor of Reese and Cardoso.
Forwards such as 2016 MVP Nneka Ogwumike and Gabby Williams are unlikely to seriously consider the Sky.
Williams has made her feelings about the franchise perfectly clear. She responded to Reese’s recruitment efforts on social media by saying, “[The Sky] did me dirty, girl, but I’m still your biggest fan.” Meanwhile, Ogwumike met with the Sky last year as an unrestricted free agent, and timing ultimately played a significant role in her lack of interest. The Sky are still trying to become a franchise in the mold of the Storm. Entering her 14th season, Ogwumike doesn’t have time to waste on teams who have yet to arrive.
Courtney Vandersloot, entering her 15th season, is the best point guard available in free agency. Despite the Liberty’s decision to bench her in the Finals, she is still one of the best facilitators in the WNBA. Loyalty was a significant reason for Vandersloot’s 12-year commitment to the Sky after they drafted her with the No. 3 pick in 2011. At this stage in her career, Vandersloot is committed to winning. Expect her to have a conversation with the Sky, but, ultimately, she’ll have a better chance to contend elsewhere.
Vandersloot spoke with the Lynx in 2023 before signing with the Liberty. In 2025, adding a player such as Vandersloot could be a key toward making a return to the Finals for the Lynx.
Expect the Liberty, Lynx, Aces and Fever to run the free-agency table and pick off the league’s top talent.