NFL spread picks, Week 18: Navigating resting starters and playoff scenarios

Somehow, someway, we’ve reached Week 18 in the NFL and —just like on the field — there’s still plenty at stake between our panel of experts in the regular season finale.

After an up-and-down Week 17 across the board, everyone is still above .500 with first and last place separated by 13 wins. Christian D’Andrea is just six back of the outright lead but could easily lose ground to Robert Zeglinski or Charles Curtis.

Meanwhile, on the gridiron, the Falcons, Bengals, Buccaneers and Broncos and Dolphins are all fighting for the last playoff spot in their respective conferences.

With numerous teams resting starters, this is sure to be another weird week against the spread. Tail (or fade) responsibly.

All odds via BetMGM

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5

Blake Schuster: Ravens -17.5

Baltimore won’t leave any doubt in the AFC North title race.

Prince Grimes: Ravens -17.5

The Browns could hold Baltimore to 21 points and still not cover this spread with how bad their offense is.

Charles Curtis: Ravens -17.5

Sigh. I have no clue. I really want to take the points and assume Baltimore will rest starters after they take a comfortable lead. God I hate Week 18 (that will be a theme with my picks).

Cory Woodroof: Ravens -17.5

*shrugs*

Robert Zeglinski: Ravens -17.5

Baltimore wants the No. 3 seed and the AFC North title enough to prevent a Week 18 letdown.

Christian D’Andrea: Ravens -17.5

Good god, I hate this. But, the Browns just lost to Tyler Huntley by 17 at home, so…

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday)

Opening Line: Bengals -1.5

Blake Schuster: Steelers +2

Mike Tomlin as a home dog one last time this season. I can see a one-point Bengals win.

Prince Grimes: Steelers +2

I like the Bengals to win, but Pittsburgh has to play this game to win and find a rhythm before the playoffs. I’ll take the points with the home team.

Charles Curtis: Bengals -2

OK, so: assume that the Ravens win their game, then Pittsburgh will take it easy. The Bengals need a win here, so I back them.

Cory Woodroof: Steelers +2

I don’t like the Bengals having to go up against a hungry Steelers defense.

Robert Zeglinski: Bengals -2

The Bengals are in full do-or-die mode. And I don’t think the Steelers will be once they see the Ravens’ score in the second half.

Christian D’Andrea: Steelers +2

Pittsburgh’s got plenty to play for (the AFC North title) and is at home against a very bad defense.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Falcons -7.5

Blake Schuster: Falcons -8.5

Hate this line but Carolina just wants this season to end already and there’s no reason to hurt their draft stock at this point. Atlanta still has an outside shot at the playoffs.

Prince Grimes: Panthers +8.5

The Falcons just aren’t that impressive a team and Carolina has moving the ball decently.

Charles Curtis: Falcons -8.5

I cannot believe I trust a rookie QB this much.

Cory Woodroof: Falcons -8.5

The Falcons have a guy in Penix. He gets his second win and covers before the season is probably over for Atlanta.

Robert Zeglinski: Panthers +8.5

I could not believe in Raheem Morris trying to guide a rookie QB to the playoffs any less than I already do.

Christian D’Andrea: Falcons -8.5

Hoooo buddy do I hate trusting the Falcons to get things right, but this defense is a perfect soft landing zone for Michael Penix Jr.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5

Blake Schuster: Commanders -4.5

I expect we’ll see Washington pull its starters sooner than later in this one, but even just one half of Jayden Daniels should be enough to stay comfortably ahead.

Prince Grimes: Cowboys +4.5

The Commanders tend to make things harder than they need to be.

Charles Curtis: Commanders -4.5

I assume Washington will play starters and win by a lot.

Cory Woodroof: Cowboys +4.5

The Cowboys play for Mike McCarthy, and the Commanders still make the playoffs. Don’t expect them to put Jayden Daniels in harm’s way here.

Robert Zeglinski: Cowboys +4.5

The Commanders will turn off the jets at some point because they don’t really have much to play for in terms of seeding.

Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys +4.5

Washington doesn’t have much to play for. Dallas is more experienced trotting its second string out there and hoping for the best.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Packers -7

Blake Schuster: Bears +10

A lot of guys in Chicago playing for their jobs with a new regime coming in. That includes interim HC Thomas Brown.

Prince Grimes: Packers -10

The Bears aren’t scoring at a high enough clip for me to trust them in freezing Green Bay.

Charles Curtis: Bears +10

You have to go this route and assume Chicago plays hard and the Packers don’t try too hard.

Cory Woodroof: Bears +10

The Packers don’t really need this game, but the Bears to do at least feel a little better after a tough 2024 season.

Robert Zeglinski: Packers -10

I’m stunned by my colleagues’ confidence in the Bears. The Packers will want this game to avoid the Eagles in the first round and … have y’all watched the Bears play since Thomas Brown took over??? Be serious.

Christian D’Andrea: Bears +10

I have no idea what to expect from Chicago, but I think the Bears at least try hard in Thomas Brown’s finale.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Opening Line: Texans -1

Blake Schuster: Texans -1

Fully trust Tennessee’s ability to mess up an easy win.

Prince Grimes: Titans +1

Houston has no incentive play its starters the whole game… I’m regretting this pick already.

Charles Curtis: Texans -1

I think the starters will play some of the game? And this is how bad the Titans are.

Cory Woodroof: Texans -1

The Titans are in 2025 mode.

Robert Zeglinski: Texans -1

Houston badly needs a confidence builder heading into the postseason. Yes, even though it doesn’t have anything tangible to gain.

Christian D’Andrea: Texans -1

They need momentum. Tennessee needs a top three draft pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Opening Line: Colts -4

Blake Schuster: Colts -5

Indy doesn’t need a full reset, but it needs this season to just end already. Still, the Colts go out on a win.

Prince Grimes: Jaguars +5

I don’t know, man. The vibes in Indy just seem… off? Granted, the Jaguars don’t have any vibes. But still. I’ll take the points.

Charles Curtis: Colts -5

Last week’s embarrassment will motivate them to end on a high note.

Cory Woodroof: Colts -5

The Jaguars feel destined for a reset. The Colts can better avoid one with a win.

Robert Zeglinski: Colts -5

Another 200-plus yard game from Jonathan Taylor to get everyone in Indy to pretend everything is OK.

Christian D’Andrea: Colts -5

Sure, whatever.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Opening Line: Bills -5.5

Blake Schuster: Patriots +3

Josh Allen ain’t long for this one.

Prince Grimes: Patriots +3

New England played Buffalo close a couple weeks ago, so I’ll lean on that and take the points in a game that doesn’t matter for the Bills.

Charles Curtis: Patriots +3

The starters won’t play much for Buffalo.

Cory Woodroof: Patriots +3

Drake Maye will flash signs of a bright future against the Buffalo backups.

Robert Zeglinski: Bills -3

The Bills’ starters won’t play much but their backups are still so much better than whatever the Patriots will trot out.

Christian D’Andrea: Bills -3

I expect Josh Allen to come in, score three first half touchdowns to boost his MVP case, and leave.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5

Blake Schuster: Eagles -2.5

Obvious emotional letdown game for the Giants after last week’s huge win. I’m only half joking.

Prince Grimes: Eagles -2.5

This is more wishful thinking than anything. Please, Giants, stop trying!

Charles Curtis: Eagles -2.5

Drew Lock magic isn’t happening, even against Philly’s bench players.

Cory Woodroof: Eagles -2.5

Better luck next year, Giants.

Robert Zeglinski: Eagles -2.5

Kenny Pickett can throw himself instead of the ball again and the Eagles should still win by double digits.

Christian D’Andrea: Eagles -2.5

The Giants used up all their points last week. Or maybe Drew Lock is incredible now. Just seems like one of those things is more likely than the other.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening Line: Buccaneers -8

Blake Schuster: Saints +13.5

Weird game. I don’t like it.

Prince Grimes: Buccaneers -13.5

One last tune up for Baker Mayfield and co. and a chance to move up in the standings.

Charles Curtis: Buccaneers -13.5

Sure, that’s how bad the Saints are.

Cory Woodroof: Buccaneers -13.5

Don’t discount an emotionally charged Saints team playing for New Orleans on Sunday, but the Bucs should handle business.

Robert Zeglinski: Buccaneers -13.5

Baker “MVP” Mayfield isn’t about to let Tampa Bay trip up at the NFC South finish line.

Christian D’Andrea: Buccaneers -13.5

Tampa’s offense gained nearly 600 yards the last time these teams met. Now a Saints team with nothing to play for has to stop the Bucs’ playoff hopes?

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Opening Line: Broncos -1.5

Blake Schuster: Chiefs +10

Kansas City wins games it clearly doesn’t care about all the time.

Prince Grimes: Chiefs +10

Carson Wentz isn’t THAT bad, is he?

Charles Curtis: Broncos -10

A must win and Carson Wentz is starting for the Chiefs (we think).

Cory Woodroof: Broncos -10

The Chiefs don’t care what happens here, do they?

Robert Zeglinski: Broncos -10

That Denver defense, in desperate need of a playoff berth, will FEAST on Carson Wentz at altitude.

Christian D’Andrea: Chiefs +10

And whatever the under is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5

Blake Schuster: Chargers -5

Jim Harbaugh is a sicko who will want to see his team finish strong.

Prince Grimes: Chargers -5

I think the Chargers are going to be playing this game to win, and if so, they should cover against the Raiders.

Charles Curtis: Chargers -5

I hate Week 18, Part 2,412.

Cory Woodroof: Chargers -5

This feels like a safe bet, right?

Robert Zeglinski: Raiders +5

Antonio Pierce has the Raiders playing hard lately and I don’t think Jim Harbaugh wants to push his guys too much with the playoffs next weekends.

Christian D’Andrea: Raiders +5

Antonio Pierce has his guys fired up to win meaningless games. The Chargers may take this game too seriously because of Jim Harbaugh’s presence, but there’s little they gain from a win.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Opening Line: Rams -4

Blake Schuster: Rams +6.5

Too many points at home. Even if McVay is resting his starters, Jimmy Garoppolo gives him enough to play with.

Prince Grimes: Seahawks -6.5

Seattle has too much pride not to put up a good showing against LA’s backups.

Charles Curtis: Seahawks -6.5

Seems like Sean McVay is resting his starters.

Cory Woodroof: Seahawks -6.5

The Seahawks play for pride while the Rams sit starters.

Robert Zeglinski: Seahawks -6.5

Sean McVay already called off the dogs while Seattle is playing for pride.

Christian D’Andrea: Rams +6.5

That’s too many points when Seattle has nothing to play for, even with Jimmy Caroppolo in the lineup.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5

Blake Schuster: Dolphins -1.5

Maybe Woody Johnson will let his sons call a few plays in this one!

Prince Grimes: Dolphins -1.5

These Jets quit a long time ago.

Charles Curtis: Dolphins -1.5

No Tua, no problem, I guess.

Cory Woodroof: Dolphins -1.5

If this is the end of Aaron Rodgers’ NFL career, well, it was … interesting.

Robert Zeglinski: Dolphins -1.5

Dear god, just put the Jets out of their misery already.

Christian D’Andrea: Dolphins -1.5

Goodbye, Aaron Rodgers. You will be remembered fondly. Not by the Jets, mind you.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: 49ers -2.5

Blake Schuster: Cardinals -4

Arizona made serious strides this season. San Francisco did not.

Prince Grimes: Cardinals -4

Who’s the Niners’ backup QB these days?

Charles Curtis: Cardinals -4

No Brock Purdy, bigger problem for the Niners.

Cory Woodroof: 49ers +4

Josh Dobbs revenge game!

Robert Zeglinski: Cardinals -4

Arizona wants to end a disappointing season on a high note. The 49ers just want September 2025 to be here already.

Christian D’Andrea: 49ers +4

Josh Dobbs can handle the light lift of a Kyle Shanahan offense. Assuming his blocking doesn’t crumble into dust.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Lions -4.5

Blake Schuster: Lions -2.5

Dan Campbell is also a certified sicko.

Prince Grimes: Vikings +2.5

Minnesota should probably win outright given all of Detroit’s injuries.

Charles Curtis: Vikings +2.5

I’ll take the healthier team to cover.

Cory Woodroof: Vikings +2.5

Minnesota stuns the world and gets the top NFC seed. Kevin O’Connell is a magician.

Robert Zeglinski: Lions -2.5

Way too much Lions doubt around these parts for my tastes. They’re playing at home! Sam Darnold still has his shaky moments! Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Christian D’Andrea: Vikings +2.5

That Lions defense just cannot be trusted, but Sam Darnold can? What a bizarre statement.