Don’t Underestimate Emilia Pérez

Throughout the season, our “Oscar Futures” column has been published as part of our weekly Gold Rush coverage. However, since we published our Golden Globes predictions earlier this week, the penultimate “Futures” column will stand alone. Don’t worry, they’ll be reunited for the final edition before Oscar nominations. In the meantime, if you missed our Gold Rush Globes predictions, here’s a sample of what we think is going to happen at Sunday’s ceremony, a precursor that doesn’t matter at all — except when it does. (Read more here.)

Best Motion Picture – Drama

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nickel Boys

September 5

Have you gotten sick of pundits declaring the Best Picture race “wide-open” yet? If so, thank the Globes, which have the opportunity to put their stamp on the race in a major way. The field is evenly split between dramas and musicals/comedies, so there will be plenty of suspense in both of the top categories. This race at least has a clear No. 1 seed: The Brutalist, which not only got in everywhere it could have hoped at the Globes, but comes into the night as one of our presumed Best Picture heavyweights, something Globes voters tend to pay attention to. (The conglomerate that owns the Globes also owns a slice of A24, which I don’t think affects the results — voters all-but-snubbed the studio’s Sing Sing — but is still worth noting.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Anora

Challengers

Emilia Pérez

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Four movies scored the Globes’ Holy Trinity of Picture, Director, and Screenplay noms. Three of them are competing here: Anora, Emilia Pérez, and The Substance. The nominations feel like the win for The Substance, so we’re likely in for a Globe-tacular face-off of screwball comedy versus Spanish-language musical. Anora has a little more Oscar heat, which makes it the safer bet, but I’m leaning towards Emilia Pérez, for two reasons. One, because voters handed it 10 nominations, the second-most in Globes history. And two, because the Globes’ new membership is still almost entirely international, and every time Emilia Pérez has gotten in front of overseas voters, it’s cleaned up.

Oscar Futures: Emilia Bedevils BAFTA

Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ Emilia Pérez

The awards circuit rang in the New Year with Friday’s release of the BAFTA longlists, the season’s biggest sample of industry voters yet. As a group, BAFTA has its own biases as well as a nomination process that’s nearly impossible to follow. (Each category has its own byzantine bylaws.) And in general, making it onto a longlist helps less than getting snubbed hurts. Still, when a film leads the field, as Emilia Pérez did with 15 total mentions, it’s safe to say the industry liked it quite a bit. Having also dominated the European Film Awards and Golden Globe nominations, the musical has now made an impressive showing at every international precursor. As the clear standout for overseas voters, it’s time we started counting Emilia Pérez as one of this season’s major threats.

Down ⬇ A Real Pain

Though Jesse Eisenberg’s dramedy takes place almost entirely in Poland, it appears to have been too American a story for BAFTA voters, who left it off the Best Picture and Best Actor longlists. The film has plenty of fans back home, so I wouldn’t count it out, but as voting approaches, it feels like competitors such as A Complete Unknown and The Substance have all the momentum.

Current Predix

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Best Director

Up ⬆ Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light

The BAFTAs bake gender parity into their directing longlist, so Kapadia making the list over a few notable male names is not hugely surprising. Still, her inclusion caps off a very merry festive period that saw her transporting travelogue place high on many year-end lists (including Obama’s). If the Academy does end up reforming the International Film category — where Light is ineligible after not being selected by India or France — Kapadia will be the poster child for the change.

Down ⬇ RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but BAFTA snubbed a film by and about Black Americans. Given the gender constraints, it might have been harder for Ross to crack the directing longlist. (Jon M. Chu and Luca Guadagnino were also left out.) However, there was no reason for Nickel Boys to miss the Cinematography category, where the film has been racking up laurels from critics’ groups. In total, Nickel Boys only garnered a solitary mention in Adapted Screenplay, suggesting something not altogether flattering about BAFTA’s willingness to engage with stories like this one.

Current Predix

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Actor

Up ⬆ Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Adrien Brody is the consensus pundit pick, and Timothée Chalamet is the hot new thing. However, are we underestimating Fiennes’s chances? He’s been a canny campaigner, most recently on CNN’s New Year’s broadcast; he’s got a potent “overdue” narrative; and lest we forget how popular Conclave is, the papal drama finished behind only Emilia Pérez at the BAFTA longlists, earning 14 nods. And that’s no bull!

Up ⬆ Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Also performing surprisingly well with BAFTA was the Donald Trump biopic, which pulled six nods, including spots in Best Film and Best Actor. Clearly the Brits are taking the mick out of their American counterparts. If they keep this up, we shall have no choice but to retaliate by casting Jeremy Piven in a Keir Starmer biopic.

Current Predix

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Demi Moore, The Substance

The question of whether industry voters would be as amenable to The Substance as their peers in the media was definitely answered by the BAFTA longlists, on which the horror-comedy tied for third, popping up in 11 slots. I’m going to stop overthinking this: It is an awards movie, which means Moore is indeed closing in on her first Oscar nomination.

Down ⬇ Angelina Jolie, Maria

Conversely, the impeccably pedigreed Maria keeps running up against the unpleasant fact that nobody seems all that passionate about it. Jolie was BAFTA’s most surprising miss as Pablo Larrain’s film was shut out by a body most assumed would warm to its operatic fantasias. Now, her campaign may require a victory at Sunday’s Golden Globes to stay afloat. (Critics’ darling Fernanda Torres of I’m Still Here was also left off the Actress longlist, dimming hopes that the international contingent would rally around the Brazilian.)

Current Predix

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

One of the wildest stats in awards-season history is that, over the course of his long career, Denzel Washington has never been nominated for a BAFTA. That says more about BAFTA than about Washington, of course, but fortunately the streak may be over: Washington just cracked the supporting-actor longlist as part of a decent showing for Gladiator II. I hope they give him the trophy just to see what he says.

Down ⬇ Yura Borisov, Anora

Months into the race, we’re still no closer to understanding which Anora love interest is closest to an Oscar nom. Borisov had been gaining ground thanks to love from critics’ groups, and anecdotally, he’s the one that everyday moviegoers are more invested in. But he was left out at BAFTA while his live-wire co-star Mark Eydelshteyn made it on the longlist. Are these two so evenly matched that they’ll split the vote?

Current Predix

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Up ⬆ Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Just like Cannes, the BAFTA longlists made space for all four major cast members of Emilia Pérez, handing Gomez and co-star Adriana Paz spots on the Supporting Actress list alongside Zoe Saldaña. While it remains to be seen whether Gomez can crack a field with only five nominees, given her name recognition and the Guild’s love of all things Netflix, SAG love is not out of the question.

Down ⬇ Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

What I said about Nickel Boys goes double for The Piano Lesson, which blanked entirely at the BAFTA longlists. As the season began, Deadwyler appeared to be one of this unsettled category’s few sure things. With her film foundering across the ballot, she now seems in danger of missing out — though the good news is everyone else in this race not named Saldaña or Ariana Grande is probably feeling equally insecure.

Current Predix

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez