Week 18 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks, plus an upset special
It’s time to figure out your Survivor picks for the 2024 season. We’ll break down safe, value, and trap picks heading into Week 18.
The close of the 2024-25 NFL regular season is upon us. It’s Week 18 and that means the playoff bracket will be finalized by the close of Vikings-Lions on Sunday Night Football. There are only two playoff berths left to be claimed, but 10 of the 14 playoff seeds are still to be determined.
The mix of teams with nothing, something, and everything to play for makes predictions all the more difficult. And that means, if you’re still alive in your NFL Survivor pool, it’s going to be a wild week for predictions.
If you’re still alive in your pool, you made sure to avoid the Colts last week. They lost a road game to the abysmal Giants, likely clearing out most of the remaining participants in Survivor pools. That, unfortunately, included me. I pondered grabbing the Bucs, but went with the Colts and it stung. I had even called the Colts a trap pick in my weekly Survivor picks column, but I chose not to follow my own advice.
It’s now time for Week 18 picks. There’s not really such a thing as a value pick in Week 18 since you’re not saving teams for future weeks. Given all the potential issues predicting who will rest players and who will be sending out starters, we’re going to shake things up this week.
Who has what to play for in Week 18
Resting starters
Chiefs (@ Broncos)
Bills (@ Patriots)
Texans (@ Titans)
Eagles (vs. Giants)
These four bolded teams have locked up a specific playoff seed. We will see some starters getting playing time, including Josh Allen to preserve his consecutive games started streak. However, the Eagles confirmed Saquon Barkley will get rest, and we can expect Allen and other starters who do play to only get limited snaps.
You’ll want to avoid these four teams.
Must win situations
Ravens (vs. Browns)
Bengals (@ Steelers)
Steelers (vs. Bengals)***
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Broncos (vs. Chiefs)
Buccaneers (vs. Saints)
Dolphins (@ Jets)
Baltimore and Pittsburgh are already headed to the playoffs, but the division title brings the bye with it. The rest of the bold teams are straight forward as they are competing just to get into the playoffs.
One note on the Steelers. The Ravens face the Browns on Saturday afternoon and the Steelers face the Bengals on Saturday night. If Baltimore loses, Pittsburgh will be playing for the division title in their game. If the Ravens win, the Steelers will be playing for seeding position among the wild card teams. They likely would still be playing to win.
Chance for better playoff seeding
Commanders (@ Cowboys)
Packers (vs. Bears)
Chargers (@ Raiders)
Rams (vs. Seahawks)
These four teams have all clinched a playoff berth, but can move around the bracket. With some tougher matchups in certain spots, all four still have something to play for and likely will not rest starters.
Anybody not listed in the groups above are eliminated from playoff contention.
Ranking Survivor picks
You will have used up 17 teams, so you won’t have some of the best teams available. Nonetheless, here is a ranking of the 16 matchups as we help you consider your best bet for Week 18.
- Ravens over Browns
- Bucs over Saints
- Dolphins over Jets
- Broncos over Chiefs
- Falcons over Panthers
- Chargers over Raiders
- Rams over Seahawks
- Packers over Bears
- Colts over Jaguars
- Cardinals over 49ers
From those top five matchups, I think the most likely upset is Panthers over Falcons. Atlanta is the better team and has everything to play for, but I have no interest in trusting them in Week 18. I think the Ravens, Bucs, and Dolphins are all solid choices. The Broncos should win against a Mahomes-less Chiefs squad, but who knows what magic Kansas City will use up in their regular season finale.
Games to skip
These games are either going to be tightly contested or involve the potential for the much better teams to be resting starters against teams that would otherwise be clearly inferior.
Vikings @ Lions
Bengals @ Steelers
Commanders @ Cowboys
Texans @ Titans
Bills @ Patriots
Giants @ Eagles