NFL straight-up picks, Week 18: The Vikings take the NFC's top seed (but it's tight)

There’s nothing harder to predict in NFL circles between two teams in meaningless games. It’s why the preseason is a crapshoot. In 2024, the same goes for the vast majority of Week 18.

A Sunday night showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will determine the top seed in the NFC. It’s a battle between two teams with 27 wins between them — something never before seen in the league’s regular season (thanks, greed-based schedule inflation!). Other than that, things get grim.

The Kansas City Chiefs have little motivation aside from keeping a division rival out of the postseason when they travel to face the Denver Broncos. The Cincinnati Bengals have a sliver of playoff hope alive, but it rests on a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers (who are still in the running for the AFC North title) and losses from both the Broncos and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins’ must-win game may feature long stretches where backup Tyler Huntley squares off against New York Jets substitute (and Aaron Rodgers upgrade) Tyrod Taylor.

So, yeah, rough week of football, especially if you’re trying to figure out who’ll win a smattering of clashes between second-string players. Who’ll be motivated? Who just wants to go home? Let’s try and figure it out.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person attaché ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 18 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Easiest game to pick: Baltimore Ravens (-17.5) over the Cleveland Browns

Why I like this pick:

I try not to pick the game with the biggest spread each week, as that would make this section even more boring than it already is. But, hooooo buddy, this should not be pleasant. The Ravens are at home and playing for a division title (and chance to return to Baltimore next week to host a Wild Card game). The Browns will counter with the worst quarterback to play significant snaps since 2020 by a significant margin.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Myles Garrett could wrap up his second straight defensive player of the year award with a big game. Strange things happen between division rivals, let alone rivals with the weird history of the Browns and Ravens.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 13-4 (.765)

Hardest favorite to back: Houston Texans (-1) over the Tennessee Titans

Why I like this pick:

The Titans have lost five straight games, including a home-and-home series against Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston’s biggest weakness has been its blocking, but Tennessee brings a bottom-eight pressure rate. The Texans badly need to build momentum headed into the postseason. The Titans badly need to lock in a top three draft pick headed into the offseason.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Houston is worse than its 9-7 record suggests and its biggest weakness — interior blocking — now faces Jeffery Simmons (and, in the run game, T’Vondre Sweat). C.J. Stroud’s receiving corps was one of the deepest in the league heading into 2024 but now it’s down to Nico Collins, Robert Woods and John Metchie. The Texans are on the road, a place where they managed to lose to the New York Jets.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 11-6 (.647)

Upset pick of the week: Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) over the Washington Commanders

The smart thing would have been to avoid all underdogs. 2024 is already the chalkiest year since 2013, per Pickwatch. If favorites all win in a meaningless Week 18, it will own a stretch that expands well beyond a decade. Washington is the better team with the better quarterback… assuming Jayden Daniels plays a full game.

You know what? Dan Quinn said his Commanders are going to “fight like hell” to clinch the sixth seed. He’s goofy enough that I believe him. Let’s roll with Washington, which makes this week’s upset pick…

Actual upset pick of the week: Las Vegas Raiders (+5) over the Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders have proven they have no interest in lying down. Playing for pride is what got Antonio Pierce hired in the first place, and his motivational skills will be key here. I don’t expect a Jim Harbaugh coached team to roll over in any regard, but I do expect it to be careful and keep as many key components available for the postseason as possible.

So, Raiders it is.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 5-12 (.294)