Here's what Big Pharma could buy in 2025, from obesity drugs to precision cancer treatments, according to a top M&A banker

• A top M&A banker said Big Pharma will be on the hunt for more acquisitions in 2025.
• Major drugs including Keytruda and Eliquis will see patent exclusivity expire in coming years.
• Pharma companies look at areas such as obesity to supplement growth, Jefferies' Chris Roop said.

Big Pharma will hunt for more acquisitions in 2025 as industry giants face patent expiration for some of their best-selling drugs, according to a top M&A banker.

Merck's cancer drug Keytruda, the top-selling medication in the world, will lose patent exclusivity at the end of 2028.

Eliquis, made by Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb to treat and prevent blood clots, will lose its exclusivity earlier that same year. The two drugs raked in $25 billion and $12 billion, respectively, for their manufacturers in 2023.

When patents expire, pharma company revenue can take a hit as rivals create similar offerings to take market share. Developing brand new drugs is a long, expensive, and risky process, so acquisitions of other companies with new medications in their pipelines offer a potentially faster way to generate new revenue.

This is partly why Chris Roop, head of M&A for the Americas at Jefferies, is expecting biopharma M&A to pick up in 2025.

"The gaps to fill are significant when you think about replacing drugs that achieve peak sales north of $20 billion or $30 billion drug before patent exclusivity expires," Roop told Business Insider in a recent interview.

Large, successful pharmaceutical companies can become victims of their own successes when patents run out on blockbuster treatments, he added.

AbbVie's popular arthritis drug Humira saw its patent exclusivity expire in 2023. In the third quarter of 2024, with patients increasingly turning to similar drugs or other prescriptions, AbbVie saw its revenue from global sales of Humira fall 37% from the previous year's quarter.

To make up for looming revenue gaps, Roop said Big Pharma will increasingly turn to M&A next year, buying smaller biotechs developing drugs in major markets such as obesity and oncology.

2025's top drug targets

Obesity is positioned to be biopharma's hottest market in 2025, Roop predicted.

2024's biggest pharma acquisition was in obesity. Novo Nordisk's controlling shareholder Novo Holdings closed a deal in December to buy development and manufacturing company Catalent for $16.5 billion. The deal gives Novo Nordisk more manufacturing power for its obesity drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which makes Mounjaro and Zepbound, have a significant headstart in the exploding field of GLP-1 weight-loss treatments. Originally created to treat diabetes, injectable GLP-1 medications have surged in popularity. In May, the Kaiser Family Foundation reported that one in eight US adults had tried a GLP-1 drug.

Many other pharma companies want a piece of that pie, Roop said.

"Obesity is going to be a $100 billion to $150 billion market, so even if you come up with a third or fourth entrant in that market and only achieve 2% to 4% share, you still have a multibillion-dollar drug on your hands," he explained.

Beyond obesity, Roop sees immunology and inflammation drugs as big targets for biopharma M&A next year. That market saw a few large deals in 2024, including Vertex Pharmaceuticals' $4.9 billion purchase of Alpine Immune Sciences, which has a drug in development that targets Berger's disease, an autoimmune kidney condition.

Roop expects oncology to remain a focus area for Big Pharma next year.

He said pharmaceutical companies are especially interested in precision oncology M&A, including drugs targeting more specific cancers and even new methods of personalizing cancer treatment.

AstraZeneca made a precision oncology acquisition in March with its $2.4 billion purchase of Fusion Pharmaceuticals, which is developing a radiopharmaceutical drug, which uses radioactive isotopes to treat midstage prostate cancer.

Finally, Roop said Big Pharma will continue looking to buy companies with cardiovascular drugs in their pipelines. Heart disease and related conditions remain the leading cause of death. The global market for cardiovascular drugs was valued at about $150 billion in 2024, according to Precedence Research.

Novo Nordisk bought Cardior Pharmaceuticals in March in a deal worth up to $1.1 billion to strengthen its cardiovascular drug pipeline.

Roop said both private and public biopharma companies could be acquisition targets next year.

"A lot of what we're doing is trying to find that equilibrium to fund these companies to a point in time where pharma will say — on that data with that amount of patients and with a drug profile like this — I'm willing to take the risk, buy it from that point, and take it forward into late-stage development," he said.

"There are a lot of private and public companies that are in that lane today. We probably have more privates today with advanced data than we did three or four years ago," he added.

Roop said many of these private biopharma companies with advanced data are also well-positioned to potentially go public as the IPO window reopens.