Golden Globe TV predictions: Who should win, who could win, and who will win

When it comes to the television categories at Sunday’s 82nd Annual Golden Globes, we could be in rerun season. As with the Emmys last September, there promises to be lots of Shōgun and Hacks and The Bear (oh my) as well as plenty of Baby Reindeer. But there are some relative newcomers who could potentially break the déjà vu. The comedy Nobody Wants This and such limited series as The Penguin and Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story may figure prominently when trophies are handed out.

And will this finally be the competition where The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White meets defeat after two years of nonstop winning? We soon shall see.

In the meantime, here are our expert picks for who and what should win and could win — as well as a forecast of who actually will win.

Best Drama Series

• The Day of the Jackal
• The Diplomat
• Mr. & Mrs. Smith
• Shōgun
• Slow Horses
• Squid Game 2

Should win: Shōgun
Could win: Slow Horses
Will win: Shōgun

While the Emmys and Golden Globes often don’t line up, you would go broke picking against a show that took home a record 18 Emmy statues a mere 3 1/2 months ago. Besides that, Shōgun is as quality-driven a series project as we’ve seen in decades in terms of performance, photography, and direction. The only reason Slow Horses might have a shot at an upset is the historic unpredictability of Globe voters, who love to defy expectations — but probably not to this degree.

Best Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• The Gentlemen
• Hacks
• Nobody Wants This
• Only Murders in the Building

Should win: Hacks
Could win: The Bear
Will win: Nobody Wants This

Although The Bear finally showed some awards vulnerability with its shocking Best Comedy loss at the Emmys and a third season that received mixed reviews, the show appears to have momentum going into the Globes. But it feels like an upset is on the horizon with the freshman Netflix hit Nobody Wants This, even if the title of the show literally says otherwise. It’s no secret how much the old Globe voters adored a bright shiny new object over established shows, opening the door for Nobody to rush through. But with the sketchy Hollywood Foreign Press retired and an expanded pool of voters, there’s a chance the higher-brow Bear could still roar.

Best TV Limited Series/Movie

• Baby Reindeer
• Disclaimer
• Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
• The Penguin
• Ripley
• True Detective: Night Country

Should win: Baby Reindeer
Could win: The Penguin
Will win: Baby Reindeer

A surprise international smash, Baby Reindeer is poised to preside over the limited categories here. If there is an unexpected longshot winner, it would be The Penguin (which earned raves in its own right), given its more recent premiere in front of voters. And in another year, Ripley would be the dominant vote-getter, but this isn’t any other year. A six-time Emmy victor, Reindeer is a flat-out phenomenon and deserves to be.

Best TV Drama Actor

• Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
• Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
• Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal
• Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun
• Billy Bob Thornton, Landman

Should win: Sanada
Could win: Oldman
Will win: Sanada

Gary Oldman is an Oscar winner and Globe winner (both in 2018 for Darkest Hour) but has never won for Slow Horses and probably won’t start any winning streak for it now, either — not with two-time Emmy winner Hiroyuki Sanada in the race. Sanada provides much of the performance fuel that powered Shōgun and feels like a lock here even against actors with an Academy Award pedigree like Oldman and Jake Gyllenhaal (a nominee in 2006 for Brokeback Mountain).

Best TV Drama Actress

• Kathy Bates, Matlock
• Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
• Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
• Keira Knightley, Black Doves
• Keri Russell, The Diplomat
• Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Should win: Russell
Could win: Bates
Will win: Sawai

While Anna Sawai is the overwhelming way to bet here following her Emmy win, Keri Russell enjoyed a spectacular second season of The Diplomat that makes this a real race. Kathy Bates — herself Oscar royalty — has also collected plenty of rave notices for her work in the Matlock reboot, and the Globes is nothing if not in love with superstar names. But again, this is Sawai’s Globe to lose.

Best TV Comedy Actor

• Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
• Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside
• Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
• Jason Segel, Shrinking
• Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
• Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Should win: Danson
Could win: Brody
Will win: White

Until Jeremy Allen White shows he can actually lose a race, it’s tough to go with anyone else here. He has won thew Emmy, the Globe, the Critics Choice, and the SAG Award two years running. Is he finally due to get taken down? Maybe. Ted Danson has sentiment (and a helluva performance) on his side and deserves the statuette for his work in Netflix’s adorable A Man on the Inside. The O.C. alum Adam Brody also has a shot as the new kid on the block for Nobody Wants This.

Best TV Comedy Actress

• Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
• Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
• Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
• Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
• Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along
• Jean Smart, Hacks

Should win: Smart
Could win: Bell
Will win: Smart

The Smart money (sorry, couldn’t resist) is surely on Jean as a three-time Emmy winner, a two-time SAG Awards champ, and a Globes victor in 2021 for her now-iconic Hacks role. The woman is beloved by the industry, and that doesn’t hurt. Will that mean a second Globes triumph here? More than likely. But nothing is sure in life except you know what, and Kristen Bell is making a bid for Nobody Wants This that has dark horse written all over it. But like Jeremy Allen White, this category is Smart’s to lose.

Best TV Limited Series/Movie Actor

• Colin Farrell, The Penguin
• Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
• Kevin Klein, Disclaimer
• Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
• Ewan McGregor, A Gentleman in Moscow
• Andrew Scott, Ripley

Should win: Scott
Could win: Farrell
Will win: Gadd

Richard Gadd personally took home three Emmys for Baby Reindeer in September — for a creator and writer as well as performer — and he’s the heavy favorite to add a couple of Golden Globes to his growing collection. But it’s in this race that he may be vulnerable. And if he is, it’s Colin Farrell ready to snatch the trophy from Gadd’s hands. However, Andrew Scott’s performance as Tom Ripley in the exquisite creepy and beautiful Ripley is most deserving. It would be extremely satisfying should Scott pull off the upset. But no one should hold their breath.

Best TV Limited Series/Movie Actress

• Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
• Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
• Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
• Sofia Vergara, Griselda
• Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans
• Kate Winslet, The Regime

Should win: Foster
Could win: Blanchett
Will win: Milioti

How do you vote against a nominee like Jodie Foster, a two-time Oscar winner (for The Accused in 1989 and The Silence of the Lambs in 1992) and a past Cecil B. DeMille Lifetime Achievement Award winner at the Globes who also just won an Emmy for her True Detective role? You likely don’t, except that this is a pretty stacked category that also boasts Cate Blanchett (another two-time Academy Award winner) and Cristin Milioti, who has generated raves for The Penguin. While Foster deserves the win, the feeling here is Milioti is poised to pull off a mild shocker.

Best TV Supporting Actor

• Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun
• Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
• Harrison Ford, Shrinking
• Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
• Diego Luna, La Máquina
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Should win: Bardem
Could win: Asano
Will win: Bachrach

Tadanobu Asano looked like a lock for the drama series supporting honor at the Emmys but was upset by Billy Crudup for The Morning Show. Now, Asano is in an even tougher race opposite Ebon Moss-Bachrach, a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear and now twice nominated at the Globes. Moss-Bachrach is the clear favorite, but he’s by no means a shoo-in. No one turned in more powerful (and chilling) work than Javier Bardem’s depiction of Jose Menendez, and a victory for him would be well-earned. But being deserving is rarely enough.

Best TV Supporting Actress

• Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
• Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
• Dakota Fanning, Ripley
• Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
• Allison Janney, The Diplomat
• Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country

Should win: Gunning
Could win: Einbinder
Will win: Gunning

After taking home the Emmy. Jessica Gunning is poised to start scooping up awards in bunches (Critics Choice, SAG, Indie Spirit, and the Golden Globe for starters). Her performance as the desperate Martha in Baby Reindeer was one for the ages. It’s tough to imagine her losing, and she shouldn’t. If anyone has an outside shot, however, it’s Hannah Eindinder, who is overdue to win a major award. Unfortunately, she’s up against perhaps the strongest performance of the year.

Best TV Stand-Up Comedy Performance

• Jamie Foxx, Jamie Foxx: What Had Happened Was
• Nikki Glaser, Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die
• Seth Meyers, Seth Meyers: Dad Man Walking
• Adam Sandler, Adam Sandler: Love You
• Ali Wong, Ali Wong: Single Lady
• Ramy Youssef, Ramy Youssef: More Feelings

Should win: Glaser
Could win: Foxx
Will win: Glaser

The fact that Nikki Glaser also happens to be hosting the Golden Globes stands to give her a leg up to win here. She’s also hysterical, and her comedy special sublime. There are plenty of other big names in the category, including Oscar winner Jamie Foxx as well as Adam Sandler and Seth Meyeers. But Sunday is poised to be Glaser’s big night, and taking home her very own statuette would be especially fitting.

Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.

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