Jayden Daniels is amazing, but here’s how he can be even better

Jayden Daniels can be Superman, but he also needs to boring sometimes

Here’s the thing about rookie quarterbacks who have amazing seasons: Those first years don’t automatically translate to great careers.

The 10 rookie quarterbacks in pro football history with at least 300 passing attempts in their first seasons who have the highest Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (a better indicator of quarterback performance than passer rating)… well, it’s an interesting list of both short-term and long-term stars.

Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson all went on to long-term success. Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston did not, though Mayfield is having a very nice Renaissance with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gardner MInshew II is barely a backup at this point. Robert Griffin III’s career was unfortunately scuttled by injuries. And the jury is still out on Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. Herbert is having his best season to date, and Stroud is struggling in 2024 for all kinds of reasons after a rookie season in 2023 that has been said to be among the best ever. Which points to the vagaries of the quarterback position when it comes to career excellence beyond a nice first outing.

The tenth player on that all-time list is still in his rookie season, and that’s Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. The second overall pick in the 2024 draft has been a revelation for a franchise that has been hoping for a savior at the position since Haloti Ngata landed hard on RGIII near the end of Griffin’s rookie season in 2012.

Daniels has been every bit of it and earned a Pro Bowl nod in his inaugural season. This year, he’s completed 325 of 468 passes for 3,530 yards, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a passer rating of 101.2 (ninth-best in the NFL), and a Passing EPA per Play of +0.15 (fifth-best in the league). Under pressure, he’s completed 52 of 106 passes for 760 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, a passer rating of 79.1 (14th-best in the league), and an EPA per Dropback of -0.23 (fourth-best in the league).

As a runner out of plays both designed and improvised, Daniels has 144 attempts for 864 yards (the NFL’s most among quarterbacks), 6.0 yards per carry, and 27 runs of 10 or more yards – both second in the NFL among quarterbacks behind only Lamar Jackson.

There’s no doubt that Daniels has entered the NFL with everything you could want at the quarterback position. But given the history of quarterbacks who have done so in the past, and given what Daniels has put on tape so far this season, there are a couple things he can still work on (and his coaches are clearly aware) that could so a long way to ensuring his future success.

Be where your feet are

“That’s what my parents always told me growing up is just be where your feet are. Don’t worry about the future, [or] what happened in the past. All that matters is the moment.”

Daniels was speaking more philosophically here in a recent press conference when asked how he is able to keep things together in his head with all this new NFL success, but being where your feet are is important for a quarterback on the field, as well. Especially when you’re throwing on the move, it’s crucial for your upper body and your lower body to work together. And while Daniels obviously has a lot on the ball there, he will also occasionally succumb to randomness from a mechanical perspective, and that’s an area that could use development.

As you have seen if you’ve studied Daniels at all, he can be an absolute magician with off-platform throws, and passes outside the pocket. This season, when throwing outside the pocket, he’s completed 33 of 53 passes for 554 yards, 320 air yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.7. Among quarterbacks who have at least 50 dropbacks outside the pocket this season, only Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford have higher passer ratings. Daniels’ EPA of -2.13 on such throws ranks eighth, but that’s not a bad thing.

(By the way, Lamar Jackson’s EPA of +26.04 on out-of-pocket throws is absolutely preposterous. Stafford ranks second at +8.09.)

Anyway, while Daniels can be great on those plays – whether designed or improvised – he can also be a bit greedy at times. And that could catch up to him over time. Daniels’ second interception against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 was one such instance. Down 30-28 with 3:36 left in the game, the Commanders were in empty after running back Jeremy McNichols motioned to the left slot from the backfield. That was Daniels’ first read – McNichols on the backside stop route. Linebacker Nakobe Dean got pressure with a nicely designed blitz, and that hurried Daniels’ process.

By then, Daniels was scanning the middle of the field, where tight end Zach Ertz and receiver Jamison Crowder were running short routes to the front side. The idea there was that Ertz would clear the underneath zone for Crowder to get open, and that happened. But while on the move to his right, Daniels instead opted to try and hit receiver Luke McCaffrey on the dig route, and the timing was just off by that point. Daniels was throwing up a prayer, and it was not answered. Cornerback Darius Slay batted the ball to safety Reed Blankenship, and that was that.

“Yeah, if you’re going to do that, you gotta complete it,” Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said a few days later with a laugh. “That’s really it. It’s like, you can’t high-five him for all the ones that work and then crush him for the one that doesn’t. I understood it was third-and-long, critical situation, trying to make a play. That was a bit ambitious of a throw. But yeah, it’s like, ‘Hey, if you’re going to throw that one, got to make it work, Dog.’ And then you move forward.”

Daniels did just that, throwing the game-winning touchdown (his fifth touchdown pass of the day against a great defense) to Crowder with 10 seconds left in the game, but if we’re discussing things that need work with an amazing player, you might want to start there in Daniels’ case.

If you watch Lamar Jackson throw on the move this season, more often than not, he waits until he’s in a safe pocket of his own making before he turns it loose. Lamar has learned that it’s vitally important to create those safe spaces in chaos, and it’s something that a lot of mobile quarterbacks (even the good ones) don’t do consistently enough. Matthew Stafford also does this exceedingly well, as does Josh Allen. Patrick Mahomes can be in a league of his own in that department. It’s not that Daniels doesn’t do it; it’s just a matter of refinement and consistency. .

Learn to spot the Huckleberry

For such a young quarterback, Daniels is quite good at reading the play out – he’s far from a first-read-and-run guy. There are multiple examples of Daniels working through safety rotations and making explosive completions with timing, anticipation, and accuracy. But there are times when he’ll fixate on a read, and bad things tend to happen when you do that. Daniels’ interception to Atlanta Falcons linebacker Keden Elliss in Washington’s 30-24 win last Sunday night was something that happens to a lot of young quarterbacks – it’s not at all a specific indictment – and it’s just something that needs to be watched and developed.

On the play, which happened with 10:45 left in the second quarter, and the score tied 7-7, the Falcons aligned in what looked like an overload front to the offensive left side. Linebacker Lorenzo Carter, Elliss, and defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro were the three to that side. At the snap, Carter and Elliss dropped into coverage. The fourth man in the pass rush was JD Bertrand, who came from the second level. It was a great concept, and Daniels took the cheese. The idea was to complete a pass to Crowder over the middle from the inside slot on first-and-20, and Daniels never saw Elliss dropping – perhaps because he’s been so effective as a blitzer.

“Yeah, I think with him right now, it’s just making sure we don’t get bored with doing the proper footwork and the correct read and taking the right checkdown,” Kingsbury said of his quarterback a few days after the Eagles game. ”Which I thought he did a tremendous job avoiding sacks, getting the ball out of his hand, throwing it away last week. Like, don’t get bored with making the routine play. I mean, he can do the Superman stuff when it’s called for and he does, but I think that’s the biggest deal. Stay within yourself, stay within the system, and when it’s time to make those plays, you’re going to make those plays. So, he did a really nice job last week, and we’ve just got to stay right there with it.”

Again, none of these issues present as fatal flaws for Daniels, who I think is the most impressive rookie quarterback since Andrew Luck in 2012. The combination of arm talent, understanding of the game, and the ability to run as the gourmet frosting on the cake makes him an extreme outlier in a positive sense. But when the history of young quarterbacks tells you nothing about their success as they grow and develop (and as defenses figure out what to do against them), it reminds us that the art of quarterbacking is one of constant diagnosis and improvement. If you stand still, you’ll fall behind.

Everything we’ve seen from Jayden Daniels tells us that he’s up to the challenge. But if he is to work past the stories of those rookies who never lived up to the early results, the future is now from a learning perspective.