A time of chaos
AS Gaza continued to burn and Lebanon withstood a barbaric Israeli assault, and while Iran and the Zionist state traded blows in a historic open confrontation, perhaps the defining moment in the Middle East/West Asia of 2024 — amidst a multitude of monumental events — was the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime in December, and its replacement with a jihadist proto-democracy.
It would be safe to say that epochal events that normally change the course of history occurred with incredible frequency in the outgoing year. Indeed a new Middle East was being shaped, baptised with blood and fire, as competing forces — primarily the US-led Western combine with Israel as its regional vanguard lined up against the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ — battled to define what the new Mideast would look like. Though other players are also involved, it is these two camps that defined the geopolitics of West Asia in 2024 and will continue to shape future outcomes, while the ripples these changes cause will be felt across the globe.
Syria’s fall/liberation
In a series of seismic events, the one that had perhaps the greatest global impact was the ‘fall’ or ‘liberation’ of Syria — depending on one’s geopolitical perspective — at the end of the year. For local and regional supporters of the Assad regime, the shocking collapse of his government came seemingly out of the blue, while those opposed to the Syrian strongman celebrated his departure on a cold December night to Moscow, ending over five decades of his family’s iron-fisted rule over this ancient, historic land.
The rebels — now masters of Damascus — had been fighting the Assad regime since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011. In fact the conflict had sucked in regional and global players; Russia and Iran had come to Mr Assad’s defence while the US, Turkiye and the Gulf states bankrolled and armed various factions in order to defeat him. Bashar al-Assad held off for over 13 years, yet as a renewed rebel advance, led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a ‘reformed’ version of Al Qaeda sanctioned by the UN, started in late November, few would have believed that by Dec 8, the rebels would march into Damascus as Mr Assad flew gently into the night to his Russian exile.
Will Syria’s moderate extremists live up to their promises of pluralism, and will the country survive as a sovereign, united state in 2025?
The rebel advance was stunning, as the various groups, led by HTS, took city after city, while the Syrian Arab Army collapsed without a fight. This was not only a defeat for Mr Assad, but also for Russia and Iran, while Turkiye became the major foreign power broker in Syria. Meanwhile, Israel gloated, proceeding to demolish all of Syria’s defences and grabbing more of the Arab state’s land as the mighty jihadists who had just dethroned Assad watched on as the Zionist state rode roughshod over their country. Apparently, they were too ‘tired’ for more war.
The new face of Syria was Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, the HTS head, a ‘reformed’ extremist who traded in his fatigues for sharp suits and talked of inclusivity and friendship with all, expect Iran. The million-dollar question in 2025 will be: will the moderate extremists live up to their promises of pluralism, and will Syria survive as a sovereign, united state?
Gaza, Lebanon pummelled
Meanwhile, Israel continued its genocidal war on Gaza, killing and starving the besieged Strip without mercy. The conflict that had been sparked by Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Oct 7, 2023, transformed into a one-sided extermination of the Palestinian people. So strong was the revulsion amongst many in the international community that the International Criminal Court issued warrants for Israeli ruler Benjamin Netanyahu and ex-defence minister Yoav Gallant in November for their role in the Gaza massacre. Warrants were also issued for Hamas leader Mohammad Deif.
Despite the spin many Western governments and mainstream media outlets — apparently marching in lockstep in a ‘sacred’ defence of Israel — put on the situation, brave voices called out the Gaza slaughter as a genocide. These included UN committees, as well as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Since Oct 2023 Israel has butchered over 45,000 people in the occupied Strip. Many hundreds or even thousands more are believed to be buried under Gaza’s apocalyptic ruins. In multiple instances Israel committed mass-casualty attacks on civilians. But to the high and mighty in the West, this was ‘self-defence’.
Keeping with its policy of ‘decapitation’, Israel murdered Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in late July as the Palestinian leader was in Tehran for Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential inauguration. This hit — which Israel only officially acknowledged in December — was a major embarrassment to Tehran, as an honoured guest and a key member of the Axis of Resistance was murdered by Tel Aviv on Iranian soil. Haniyeh’s successor Yahya Sinwar would meet a similar fate, as he went down fighting Israeli invaders in Gaza in October.
Yet despite the loss of its senior leadership, Hamas remained undefeated; eradicating the Palestinian armed movement was a stated war aim for Tel Aviv, an aim which it has clearly failed to achieve. There were talks of a ceasefire off and on, but as the year closed, it was obvious that Israel was not interested in stopping its slaughter in Gaza, and was looking to permanently reoccupy the coastal Strip.
Along with Gaza, Israel also expanded the theatre of conflict to Lebanon, fighting the pro-Iran armed group Hezbollah in the most intense exchange of fire since the 2006 war. Israel’s justification for its war on Lebanon were the Hezbollah rockets that kept hitting Israel “in solidarity” with the Palestinians.
While the Zionist state and Hezbollah had been trading fire soon after Oct 7, 2023, in 2024 things got out of hand quite rapidly. In September thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the Lebanese armed group exploded, in an elaborate act of sabotage orchestrated by Israel. Days later Tel Aviv would start a savage bombing campaign of Lebanon — just as it had done in previous decades — murdering thousands of innocent people. Amongst the biggest casualties was Hezbollah chief Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah, a charismatic figure who had led the group for over three decades. An arch-nemesis of Israel, Tel Aviv used the aggression against Lebanon to finish Nasrallah — a long-standing Israeli desire — using massive American bombs to demolish the Beirut complex he was based in.
Soon after, in another strike Nasrallah’s cousin and reported successor Hashem Safieddine was murdered in October, leaving a shaken Hezbollah in the hands of Naim Qassem, a member of the movement’s old guard. Over 3,000 people had been killed by Israel in Lebanon since Oct 2023.
A battle of nerves
While the Iran-Israel shadow war had been ongoing for years, in 2024 matters came to the fore as Tehran and Tel Aviv directly traded blows. As usual, it was Israel that played a key role in precipitating this confrontation, as a powerful April strike carried out by Tel Aviv against an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus threw the gauntlet to the Islamic Republic: would Ayatollah Khamenei and his men ignore this provocation, as they had ignored several other Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria, as well as the assassination of Iranian scientists and military men within the Islamic Republic? Or would they hit back. The answer came in mid-April.
For the first time in history, the Iranians directly hit Israel with a swarm of missiles and drones. Though the damage was said to be minimal, the message was clear. Things did not end there. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon, and the wiping out of the Hezbollah leadership — particularly Nasrallah’s assassination — did not go down well in Tehran, and the reaction to Tel Aviv’s aggression came in the form of another Iranian missile salvo targeting Israel on Oct 1. Though the Zionist state would conduct strikes against Iran later that month, a major conflagration was averted as the Americans and Arabs reportedly warned Israel against hitting Iranian nuclear and oil facilities.
Requiem for an axis?
Though many commentators have declared the death of the Iran-backed ‘Axis of Resistance’, these obituaries may be premature. Without doubt Iran and its allies have been weekend with the overthrow of Assad, and the pummelling of Hezbollah as well as Hamas. Yet both Hezbollah and Hamas remain intact as organisations. Moreover, Yemen’s Houthis, also known as Ansarallah, that country’s de facto rulers, remain relatively unfazed, even though they remain far from the actual theatre of conflict. Yet their blockade of the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestine of ships belonging to or trading with Israel has had a major impact on global commerce. The Houthis have also been targeted by US, British and Israeli air strikes, yet continue to resist.
Meanwhile, Iran’s capabilities remain considerable despite the setbacks. Therefore, in the new year, one can expect the conflict to intensify, as the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire expires in January 2025, which could lead to the resumption of hostilities, and Tel Aviv refuses to end its genocide in Gaza. A great unknown will of course be Donald Trump; the incoming US president is known for his aversion to foreign wars, though his evangelical Zionist and neocon supporters will be itching for a fight against Iran, and to implement the ‘final solution’ on all of Israel’s adversaries. If they go ahead with their unhinged, messianic plans, then one can expect even more chaos in the Middle East in the new year.