Pro Picks: Lions will beat the Vikings in showdown for the NFC’s No. 1 seed
The NFC’s No. 1 seed, two division titles and two playoff spots are on the line in Week 18 of the NFL’s regular season.
Game No. 272 on Sunday night between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings is a showdown for the NFC North and the conference’s top spot. The loser drops to the No. 5 seed. The Lions hold the tiebreaker in case the teams tie.
The NFC South will go to the Buccaneers or Falcons. The AFC North will be decided Saturday. It’ll be the Ravens or Steelers. Both teams are in the playoffs either way.
The Broncos are in control of the AFC’s final wild-card spot. The Bengals and Dolphins hold onto slim hopes.
Pro Picks predicts the final week of regular-season games.
Houston (9-7) at Tennessee (3-13)
Line: Titans minus 1
The playoff-bound Texans are underdogs because they’re locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed. But coach DeMeco Ryans plans to play his starters after Houston was embarrassed by Baltimore on Christmas Day. The Titans have the second pick in the draft at the moment and could move up to No. 1 with a loss.
BEST BET: TEXANS: 27-12
New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia (13-3)
Line: Eagles minus 3
Saquon Barkley’s pursuit of Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old rushing record would make this game watchable. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t decided yet if Barkley and the starters will play because his team is locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Giants already potentially cost themselves the No. 1 pick by beating the Colts.
UPSET SPECIAL: GIANTS: 22-20
Cleveland (3-13) at Baltimore (11-5)
Line: Ravens minus 17 1/2
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens need a victory to clinch the AFC North and the No. 3 seed. The Browns have lost five in a row, currently hold the third pick in the draft and have a chance at No. 1 if the Patriots and Titans win.
RAVENS: 30-13
Cincinnati (8-8) at Pittsburgh (10-6)
Line: Bengals minus 1 1/2
The Steelers have lost three in a row and could be eliminated from the division race by kickoff. If the Ravens beat the Browns, Pittsburgh will be either the fifth or sixth seed. The Bengals need a win and the Broncos and Dolphins to lose to sneak into the playoffs.
BENGALS: 24-20
Carolina (4-12) at Atlanta (8-8)
Line: Falcons minus 8 1/2
The Falcons lost control of their NFC South hopes by losing to Washington. Atlanta only gets into the playoffs with a win and the Buccaneers losing to the Saints. The Panthers have improved over the second half, but were routed in Tampa Bay. They hold the sixth pick in the draft currently.
FALCONS: 27-17
Washington (11-5) at Dallas (7-9)
Line: Commanders minus 4 1/2
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has led an impressive turnaround in Washington, taking the Commanders to the playoffs. They’ll be either the sixth or seventh seed in the NFC so coach Dan Quinn can rest his starters. The Cowboys got destroyed in Philadelphia after an upset win over the Buccaneers.
COWBOYS: 23-20
Chicago (4-12) at Green Bay (11-5)
Line: Packers minus 9 1/2
Caleb Williams and the Bears haven’t won a game since losing on a Hail Mary pass to Daniels and the Commanders. They could snap that 10-game losing streak if Packers coach Matt LaFleur rests his starters. Green Bay can finish no higher than the sixth seed in the NFC.
PACKERS: 24-20
Jacksonville (4-12) at Indianapolis (7-9)
Line: Colts minus 5
With their playoff hopes on life support, the Colts couldn’t even beat the woeful Giants. The Jaguars currently have the fifth pick in the draft and would be better off losing.
COLTS: 26-16
Buffalo (13-3) at New England (3-13)
Line: Bills minus 3
Josh Allen’s MVP resume is complete and the Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed so coach Sean McDermott plans to rest some starters. Allen will start his 115th consecutive game and give way to Mitchell Trubisky. The Patriots have the No. 1 pick in the draft and shouldn’t jeopardize that. Benching Drake Maye is an option for New England, which could benefit from trading that top pick for more draft capital.
BILLS: 23-17
New Orleans (5-11) at Tampa Bay (9-7)
Line: Buccaneers minus 13 1/2
The Buccaneers are one win away from their fourth straight NFC South title. Baker Mayfield still has an outside chance to lead the NFL in TD passes. The Saints are wrapping up a nightmarish season and then will begin their search for a new coach.
BUCCANEERS: 34-17
Kansas City (15-1) at Denver (9-7)
Line: Broncos minus 10
The Broncos need a victory to clinch their first playoff appearance since winning a Super Bowl nine years ago. Standing in their way will be a bunch of backups led by Carson Wentz filling in for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed and will be home for the playoffs to continue their three-peat quest.
BRONCOS: 26-23
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas (4-12)
Line: Chargers minus 5 1/2
Jim Harbaugh plans to play to win even though the Chargers are assured either the fifth or sixth seed in the AFC. The Raiders have won two in a row to fall out of the running for Shedeur Sanders unless they trade up in the draft.
CHARGERS: 24-17
Seattle (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Line: Seahawks minus 3
The NFC West champion Rams will be the third or fourth seed. Sean McVay has rested starters in similar situations before and likely will do so again. The Seahawks could finish with the same number of wins as the division champs but already lost the tiebreaker.
SEAHAWKS: 25-16
San Francisco (6-10) at Arizona (7-9)
Line: Cardinals minus 4
The Cardinals were in good shape in the NFC West at 6-4, but lost five of six to miss the playoffs for the eighth time in nine seasons. The 49ers couldn’t overcome too many injuries and inconsistency and won’t be defending their NFC title.
CARDINALS: 26-20
Miami (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12)
Line: Dolphins minus 1
The Dolphins could go into a must-win game with Tyler Huntley again instead of Tua Tagovailoa, who has a hip injury. The Dolphins would make the playoffs with a victory if the Chiefs beat the Broncos. The season can’t end soon enough for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
DOLPHINS: 20-17
Minnesota (14-2) at Detroit (14-2)
Line: Lions minus 3
This is the game Dan Campbell and the Lions have waited for since losing to the 49ers in last season’s NFC championship game. Getting the No. 1 seed has been Detroit’s goal and it’ll come down to beating Sam Darnold and the Vikings, who have been the surprise of the NFL this season. A tie also gets the job done for the Lions. Despite a shorter week after playing at San Francisco on Monday night, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of the Lions have come too far to slip now. Detroit has been depleted by injuries, especially on defense, and keeps winning. Minnesota has won nine in a row and defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ unit presents a difficult challenge for the Lions’ dynamic offense.
LIONS: 30-26
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Last week: 13-3. Against spread: 6-10
Overall: Straight up: 181-75. Against spread: 137-115-4.
Prime time: Straight up: 42-14. Against spread: 29-26-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 10-7. Against spread: 9-8.
Upset Special: Straight up: 9-8. Against spread: 9-8.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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