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News Every Day |

A wild year for markets, in 5 charts

  • It was a wild year for markets in 2024.
  • Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time and stocks saw another year of monster returns.
  • Other areas of markets that saw big moves include bonds and the US dollar.

The stock market defied gravity again in 2024, with the S&P 500 posting a second straight year of gains of over 20%. While stocks seemed to only push higher, that's not to say it was a quiet year for markets.

There was the yen carry trade implosion in August, a jumbo interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and the Presidential election in November.

Here are five charts depicting some of the wildest rides in markets in 2024.

Bitcoin tops $100,000

One of the best-performing assets in 2024 was bitcoin. After a 43% surge in February, the cryptocurrency traded sideways until the November presidential election.

Once it became clear that Donald Trump was the winner, the cryptocurrency didn't look back. It has since briefly topped $100,000, hitting a peak of almost $109,000, as investors expect Trump's incoming administration to be friendly to the crypto industry.

Bitcoin is set to finish 2024 up about 124%. And Wall Street believes the gains can continue into 2025.

Many forecasters are expecting the crypto to double in 2025, with some extremely bullish predictions calling for the token to touch $500,00. The exuberance is being stoked mostly by excitement for Trump's enthusiasm for crypto, with the President-elect hinting at the creation of a bitcoin reserve during his second term.

Bond yields go on a roller coaster ride

The 10-year US Treasury yield started 2024 at just below 4%, and is set to finish the year around 4.57%.

That's not a massive move, but it is significant considering what happened between then and now.

In April, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.74% as interest rate cuts seemed further out than initially expected due to strong economic growth and stubborn inflation data.

The 10-year rate then began its descent to as low as 3.62% in mid-September as investors anticipated the start of an interest rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve.

But since then, even after the Fed cut rates by 100 basis points, the 10-year Treasury yield has surged by about the same amount as investors prepare for fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 due to still elevated inflation and a solid economic outlook.

Overall, the prospect of rate cuts has helped deliver some relief, but not much, as bond markets repriced based on recalibrated expectations throughout the year.

Key areas, like mortgages, are still elevated and it could be a while before would-be homebuyers see rates come down.

The stock market soared. Again.

Investors came into this year feeling cautious after the S&P 500 delivered a 24% gain in 2023. Yet, the benchmark index repeated the performance and drove some of the biggest bears into hibernation throughout the year.

The S&P 500 gained about 23% this year, extending the two-year bull market rally to record highs of nearly 6,100.

The gains reflected investor confidence in a solid economy, a dovish Federal Reserve, the continued boom in AI, and growth in corporate earnings.

What's more, there was very little downside throughout the year.

The worst sell-off in 2024 resulted in a peak-to-trough decline of just 8%, which is well below the average historical intra-year market decline of about 14%.

Can investors expect another year of solid gains with minimal volatility?

Wall Street is split, with most expecting another year of solid gains but with some added volatility related to the incoming Trump administration.

Nvidia stayed hot

Nvidia shares more than tripled in 2023 as its GPU business boomed amid the frenzy for its AI chips.

The trend continued in 2024, with the stock soaring about 174% and briefly dethroning Apple to become the world's largest company.

Investors expect the company to report more than $110 billion in revenue this year, nearly double the $60 billion in revenue it reported in 2023

Wall Street expects the party to continue for Nvidia in 2025 as it ramps up the production of its next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, which reportedly has a backlog of more than 12 months for new orders.

The US dollar broke out to multi-year highs

The US dollar surged in 2024 and has been up more than 8% since just before the election to hit levels not seen since November 2022.

Donald Trump's victory sparked a massive rally in the dollar as investors anticipated a rebound in inflation, which would limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

And fewer interest rate cuts typically lead to a stronger dollar.

While a stronger dollar might make a vacation to a foreign country more appealing, it's not great news for investment portfolios, as a strong US currency can weigh on multinational companies' profits.

The US dollar index is at $108.37, still well below its peak of about $115 in 2022 and its record high of about $120 in 2021.

Read the original article on Business Insider
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