Breaking Down Steamer Projections for Mets’ 2025 Hitters
If the season were to start Monday, the Mets would find themselves in a solid spot for playoff contention. They signed generational talent Juan Soto to a record-shattering $15-year, $765 million deal. Then, they bolstered their rotation, re-signing Sean Manaea and adding Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas. However, questions linger on what else the Mets will do. Questions remain about where beloved Met Pete Alonso will sign during his first foray into free agency. Will Alex Bregman join the Mets? The team will likely add another offensive bat; there were rumors they offered a two-year deal to Teoscar Hernández before he returned to the Dodgers. Also, the bullpen needs some serious work, and that’s a market that hasn’t seen much movement thus far.
Photo by Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Below are Steamer projections for the 2025 Mets hitters (as of Monday, 12/30).
Steamer Projections
- Francisco Lindor, SS: .257/.335/.451, 28 HR, 81 RBI, 122 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR, (10.1 DEF)
- Juan Soto, RF: .282/.421/.538, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 169 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR, (-13.0 DEF)
- Mark Vientos, 1B: .249/.314/.470, 34 HR, 96 RBI, 120 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR, (-7.4 DEF)
- Brandon Nimmo, LF: .252/.347/.415, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 119 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR, (-5.5 DEF)
- Starling Marte, DH: .263/.319/.396, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, (-10.1 DEF)
- Jeff McNeil, 2B: .271/.331/.395, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 108 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR, (-4.5 DEF)
- Francisco Alvarez, C: .237/.314/.440, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 113 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR, (12.2 DEF)
- Brett Baty, 3B: .239/.313/.397, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 102 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR, (1.7 DEF)
- Jose Siri, CF: .206/.265/.384, 15 HR, 43 RBI, 83 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, (3.5 DEF)
- Tyrone Taylor, OF: .236/.290/.405, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 96 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, (-3.3 DEF)
- Luis Torrens, C: .226/.287/.370, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 87 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR (3.5 DEF)
- Luisangel Acuña, INF: .249/.295/.364, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 87 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, (2.7 DEF)
Total Projected 2025 Hitters fWAR: 27.8
2024 Hitters fWAR: 25.9
While the model projects “down” years from Lindor and Soto, Nimmo and McNeil look to return to their norm after experiencing bad luck at the plate in 2024. Nimmo’s uncharacteristically low .267 BABIP in 2024 proved poor luck at times, while Steamer projects a more Nimmo-like .302 BABIP for 2025. Vientos looks to produce similarly to 2024 as he prepares for his first full season in the majors. Alvarez reckons to be a threat behind the plate once more, while Marte, Siri and Taylor act as platoons in the field. Baty’s status on the roster is TBD, depending on how the Mets continue to proceed this offseason, and Acuña likely will act as a bench piece along with Torrens.
Observations
Yes, Lindor and Soto performed better than their 2024 projections, and I expect them to outperform their projections once more — those shouldn’t be cause for concern. The important bats to get back on track for 2025 have always been Nimmo and McNeil — they were a hindrance to the team’s failures at times during 2024. McNeil’s strikeout percentage in 2024 was a career-worst 14.4%. Steamer projects he’ll lower that to 12.7%, still high for the Flying Squirrel but an improvement. Like Nimmo, McNeil’s BABIP projects a return to normalcy in 2025. McNeil was extremely pull-happy in 2024 (44.2%) and looks to return to utilizing the entire field in 2025. Baty’s 1.8 fWAR is a bit surprising, given the uncertainty of his role on the team.
While this 2025 team projects to be a better team based on Steamer’s fWAR projections, the 2025 Mets aren’t done adding. They’ll likely add additional bench help and infield help like they did with Jose Iglesias‘ signing last offseason. And, of course, Alonso’s return can be what sets this team over the top.
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