49ers vs. Lions: 5 keys to upsetting Detroit in NFC Championship rematch

SANTA CLARA – For the second straight season, the 49ers are closing out their Levi’s Stadium schedule against the Detroit Lions. Monday night’s stakes, however, aren’t as great as last January’s, at least not for the 49ers.

The Lions (13-2) are the ones still contending for an elusive Lombardi Trophy, not to mention the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a streamlined path to the franchise’s first Super Bowl.

A year ago, the 49ers owned that No. 1 seed and ultimately rallied past the Lions at Levi’s Stadium in the largest comeback ever in an NFC Championship Game, overcoming a 24-7 halftime deficit to win 34-31.

“We’re all very aware that they think they gave us one last year, and they’re going to do everything they can to come in here and beat us by 30 points,” tight end George Kittle said. “It’s our job to not let them do that. I fully expect us to win. I go into every single game expecting to win.”

The 49ers (6-9) have won so few they are vacating the NFC throne, having been eliminated last Sunday from playoff contention. Defensive end Nick Bosa summed up the difference between the Lions’ and the 49ers’ seasons: “They’re doing great, and we had an off-year.”

The Lions can clinch the NFC’s top seed regardless of this game’s outcome. Their fate is tied to Sund night’s showdown with the Minnesota Vikings (14-2).

The 49ers can upset the Lions if … well, a lot much go their way. Here are five areas to watch:

1. PURDY’S QUICK PASSING

Task No. 1 for this game and the season’s final eight quarters is to get Brock Purdy through it healthy. Sure, a well-earned contract extension is in it for him. But the 49ers can’t afford an injury that will setback their offseason program and training camp, when the foundation of a renaissance must be established.

Purdy can help matters behind a patchwork line by uncorking passes faster. Throw screens and quickies to Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Isaac Guerendo, Kyle Juszczyk, and maybe even first-round afterthought Ricky Pearsall. That will help combat the blitzes sure to come from Detroit’s desperate defense that is covering for injured starters.

“It’s about doing my job, not doing anything uncharacteristic and trying to do too much,” Purdy said. “When it comes to the pass game, I can do my part getting the ball out, being on time and help them establish their feet within the game.”

Purdy is averaging 2.94 seconds to throw this season. That is tied for the 33rd quickest draw in the NFL land. But that is nothing new. As great as Purdy was at processing defenses at the onset of his career, he’s traditionally taken his time to throw: 2.84 seconds in 2022, 2.88 seconds last year. In the 49ers’ NFC title win over the Lions, Purdy clocked a 2.91-second average.

2. GET GIBBS DOWN

Last season’s NFC Championship game turned on Brandon Aiyuk catching a ricocheted pass near the Lions’ goal line. But Aiyuk’s ensuing touchdown catch did not put the 49ers ahead. What enhanced the 49ers’ comeback was Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble on the ensuing snap (forced by Tashaun Gipson, recovered by Arik Armstead), and that set up Christian McCaffrey’s game-tying touchdown.

Gibbs, of all Lions outside of Campbell’s aggressive play calls, should be hungriest for redemption. He’s fumbled once in 252 touches this season (1,156 yards, 12 touchdowns). He’s the Lions’ workhorse even more so with David Montgomery shelved by a knee injury.

The 49ers’ run defense has allowed at least 140 yards and 30 carries in four of the last five games. While they’re allowing the NFL’s second-fewest overall yards (304.3 per game), their run defense ranks 15th (121 yards per game). With Dre Greenlaw’s comeback ending after just 34 snaps, Fred Warner must rally the remaining cast, most of whom are Week 1 starters (minus Javon Hargrave, De’Vondre Campbell and George Odum).

3. FIND RUNNING ROOM

Think back to the 49ers’ home opener. McCaffrey was a surprise scratch, and uncertainty loomed over the 49ers’ rushing attack. This home finale comes with familiar concerns. Isaac Guerendo should return from a one-game absence (hamstring, foot), and the 49ers need to see what more he can do ahead of next offseason’s restocking of the running back room.

Deebo Samuel is sure to command touches. Remember, he demanded the ball after the 49ers’ halftime deficit to the Lions with a Super Bowl berth on the line. And Samuel broke out last game with vintage form to break tackles in the 49ers’ losing bid at Miami.

Purdy, of course, may need to escape and run for success. One more flashback from last meeting with Detroit: Purdy scrambled 21 yards on third-and-4 to the Lions’ 28-yard line on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive.

“It was some real hard-nosed football that got us back in that game and doing it the old-fashioned way,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday. “And it was cool to watch that. We watched a lot of it (Friday), just talking about run game and things like that.”

4. GET TO GOFF

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has lost his last six starts against the 49ers, including the 2019 and 2020 season sweeps the Rams sustained with him. But the Marin Catholic and Cal product is having a banner finish to this season. He’s had just one pass intercepted in 231 attempts over the past six games, since a five-interception cluster in a Nov. 10 win at Houston.

The 49ers have no interceptions in six of their past seven games. Available to pressure Goff this time around are their top four defensive ends: Nick Bosa, Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos and Sam Okuayinonu.

John Lynch, the 49ers’ general manager, gave kudos to the Lions’ brass for the 2021 controversial trade that brought Goff from the Rams in exchange for Matthew Stafford. Lynch, on KNBR 680-AM, said: “A lot of people if you forget at the time were saying, ‘What are you doing? They just bailed the Rams out.’ Well, they found a pretty good guy who fits really well, and they built an offense around him.”

5. BOSA VS. SEWELL

One of the NFL’s best matchups, Bosa vs. right tackle Penei Sewell, remains in place, even if their teams are in different plights.

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson praised how Sewell has polished his technique, fundamentals and leadership since being drafted No. 7 overall in 2021. “He really is the tone setter for us on offense. He’s going to drive guys off the ball,” Johnson said. “He’s looking to take souls out there.”

Bosa is three sacks shy of reaching double figures for a fourth straight season; he sacked Goff twice in the NFC title game, and once in the 2021 opener at Detroit.

Bosa said Sewell’s been playing “really good,” and when it comes to run blocking, “he’s probably the best one,” Bosa said of tackles he’s opposed this season.