Final 8 College Football Playoff teams, ranked by national championship chances

Let’s rank the final eight teams standing in the College Football Playoff by who is most likely to win the national title.

And then there were eight.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field has been whittled down to the final eight teams, with all eight in action this weekend in the quarterfinals. The games kick off on New Year’s Eve when No. 6 Penn State takes on No. 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Then three games come your way on New Year’s Day, starting with No. 4 Arizona State taking on No. 5 Texas in the Peach Bowl, followed by No. 1 Oregon against No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Something about those two teams squaring off in the Rose Bowl just feels right.

The New Year’s Day slate concludes with No. 2 Georgia taking on No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.

Here at SB Nation our staff writers each ranked the final eight teams by their chances of winning the title, and after the votes were tallied, here are how we rank the final eight team heading into the quarterfinals.

8. Arizona State

Arizona State’s dream run to a Big-12 Championship — in a year they were picked to finish last in the conference — secured a No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, and a first-round bye.

That was the good news. The bad news?

They now get to take on Texas, who impressed in their first-round win over Clemson.

However, the Sun Devils might have found hope in that game between Clemson and Texas. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik threw for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, the first time an opposing passer threw for more than 300 yards against the Longhorns in a single game this season, and also the first time an opposing QB threw for three TDs against Texas this year.

The Longhorns allowed just seven passing TDs all year, with Klubnik accounting for three of those.

Arizona State passer Sam Leavitt has thrown for ten touchdowns — with just one interception — over his last four starts. Granted, Texas will be the best defense he has faced this year, but if he turns in a masterful performance, Arizona State has a shot.

7. Boise State

Ashton Jeanty was one of the best college football players in the nation this season. He paced the Broncos with 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, numbers that made him the runner up in the Heisman Trophy race to Travis Hunter.

Boise State’s offense runs through him, and with good reason. But that gets tougher this week, when the Broncos take on Penn State. The Nittany Lions sport one of the best defenses — and one of the best run defenses — in all of college football.

If Boise State can control the line of scrimmage on offense and get Jeanty going, they have a shot in this game. But if not, watch out.

6. Penn State

Penn State put in a command performance in their first-round win over SMU. The Nittany Lions held the Mustangs to just 253 total yards en route to their 38-10 win, and that performance is part of the reason Penn State is a big favorite against Boise State in the quarterfinals. The latest ESPN odds have Penn State favored by 11.5 against the Broncos.

Another reason that Penn State is considered favorites in this game? As noted above the Fiesta Bowl is a true “strength versus strength” contest. While Boise State has the fifth-best rushing offense in the nation — led in large part by Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty — Penn State has the seventh-best run defense in the nation, and the fourth-best defense in yards allowed.

If Penn State can limit Jeanty, they should move on.

5. Georgia

Georgia’s season sweep of the Texas Longhorns — an early-season win in Austin, and then a win in the SEC Championship Game — saw the Bulldogs enter the inaugural 12-team playoff on a high note, ranked No. 2 and holding a first-round bye.

But their playoff crystal ball has clouded over since then.

Carson Beck’s season-ending surgery means the Bulldogs are turning to backup quarterback Gunnar Stockton for their quarterfinal game against Notre Dame. While Stockton played the entire second half of the SEC Championship Game against Texas, and all but one play in overtime — the game-winning touchdown run where Beck returned to handoff — now he’ll take on one of the best defenses in college football in Notre Dame.

With the Fighting Irish having time to prepare for him.

If Georgia’s defense can create some turnovers and give Stockton some short fields, the Bulldogs can pull out a win in this game. But they will still need something special from Stockton to advance.

4. Ohio State

If you tell the Buckeyes they aren’t playing Michigan under Ryan Day, they’re one of the best teams in the country. In their 42-17 drubbing of Tennessee, they felt more like the dominant Buckeyes we’re used to seeing, dominating through the air and through the ground. All world WR Jeremiah Smith had 103 receiving yards and two touchdowns and they also ran for 156 yards. When they lean into the fact that they have the best receiving core in the nation, they’re truly one of the best teams in college football.

The problem is that in some of their biggest games they forget how to play within the margins. It hurt them against Michigan, and it hurt them the first time they played Oregon, a 32-31 loss that saw them literally run out of time. This is when coaching matters, these rematches like we’ll see in the Rose Bowl. For Ohio State to get past the Ducks, Ryan Day is going to have to manage a football game better than he ever has before.

3. Texas

When Texas can win using play action and their outside zone run game, they’re one of the best teams in the nation. With LT Kelvin Banks back healthy and the run game working really well, you have more faith in a Longhorns team that embodies the phrase “complimentary football.” They’ll also get WR Isaiah Bond back, which will help in the event that the Longhorns need to pass the ball.

However, you worry about this Texas team when QB Quinn Ewers has to drop back and win you the game. Ewers operates the best using play action and without standard dropbacks, masking his inefficiency throwing the ball downfield. If Arizona State can force Ewers into standard dropbacks they can have a shot at winning this game.

However, that’s only if they can get the Longhorns to that point. Texas is built for games like this, deep into the season, and that can just be enough.

2. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s impressive first-round win over Indiana is one reason they are high on this list.

The other? Their pathway to the semifinals became a little easier over the past few weeks, with confirmation that Georgia starting quarterback Carson Beck is out for the playoffs after undergoing surgery on his elbow.

That means the Bulldogs are turning to backup quarterback Gunnar Stockton for the remainder of their playoff run. All he will have to navigate is the eighth-best defense in FBS in yards allowed per game, and the third-best scoring defense in all of the FBS. If this defense can make life difficult for Stockton, Notre Dame has a great shot at advancing.

1. Oregon

Everything we wrote about the Ducks prior to the first-round games remains true. Oregon has perhaps the most complete team in the field. They have speed to burn on both sides of the football, the most experienced quarterback left in the field in Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel, and they are coming off not just a bye week, but extra time to prepare for a rematch against a team they have already defeated this season.

While their victory back in October was a one-point win at home, and Ohio State was able to move the football both on the ground and in the air, the Ducks are in a very strong position heading into the Rose Bowl.