Cheat Sheet: It's time for Josh Allen, Bills to circle the wagons
BEST BET
JETS at BILLS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Bills by 8½.
Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 12-3/9-6; Jets 4-11/5-10.
Can anyone beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
Not only have the Chiefs continued to defy the effects of the salary cap and a spate of injuries by going 15-1 and clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the pool of serious challengers seems to be shrinking.
The Bills (12-3) and Ravens (11-5) still loom as the top AFC threats to the Chiefs’ reign, but it’s shaky after that. The up-and-coming Texans (9-7) are 4-6 in their last 10 games after a 5-1 start — with all four victories over likely non-playoff teams (the Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars and Dolphins). The Steelers have lost three straight (to the Chiefs, Ravens and Eagles) and are 2-4 after an 8-2 start.
After that, the likely AFC playoff teams are the Chargers (9-6) and Broncos (9-6). Both of those teams have played the Chiefs tough this season — the Chargers lost 17-10 at home and 19-17 at Arrowhead; the Broncos lost 16-14 at Arrowhead.
But that’s what the Chiefs do — give you hope in the regular season and play at a different level in the playoffs.
The Bills and Josh Allen know this all too well. Allen is 4-0 against Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season after handing the Chiefs their only loss this season, 30-21 on Nov. 17 at Highmark Stadium. But they’re 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs, losing in 2021 (38-24 at Arrowhead), 2022 (42-26 in an all-time classic at Arrowhead) and last year (27-24 at Highmark Stadium).
(Though Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and a contender with Lamar Jackson for the MVP award this season, at some point the Bills are going to regret trading the No. 10 pick of the 2017 draft to the Chiefs that allowed them to draft Mahomes and fuel what is becoming an all-time NFL dynasty.)
After missing their chance to eliminate the Chiefs at Highmark last year, the Bills now face the prospect of having to beat them at Arrowhead to get to the Super Bowl. The stigma of those three playoff losses might be as much of an obstacle as winning a conference championship game on the road.
But the Bills have to get there first (as do the Chiefs, who despite their uncanny knack for winning are still vulnerable to getting burned by playing with fire too often).
Coming off an unimpressive 24-21 victory over the Patriots last week, when they had to overcome a 14-0 deficit, the Bills need to rebuild momentum for the playoffs.
Pick: Bills 27, Jets 17.
TOP PLAYS
COLTS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Colts by 8½.
Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 7-8/9-6; Giants 2-13/3-11-1.
Outlook: The Colts have slim playoff chances, but that’s better than none, and they still will be going all out in this one against a Giants team that doesn’t have anything to play for. The Giants have lost 10 straight (1-9 ATS), including the last two by 27 points to the Falcons and 21 points to the Ravens. A win could drop the Giants from No. 1 to No. 6 in the draft order.
Pick: Colts 27, Giants 13.
DOLPHINS at BROWNS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 6½.
Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 7-8/6-9; Browns 3-12/4-11.
Outlook: Dolphins’ slim playoff hopes could be dashed if the Chargers and Broncos win Saturday. But with their rally since Tua Tagovailoa returned — winning 5 of their last 7 after close losses to the Cardinals and Bills — they’ll be focused on a strong finish heading into 2025. The Browns have lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS).
Pick: Dolphins 17, Browns 10.
PACKERS at VIKINGS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 1.
Total: 49.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 11-4/9-6; Vikings 13-2/10-4-1.
Outlook: Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell is a deserving favorite for Coach of the Year for winning 13 games with Sam Darnold. But these Vikings look too similar to O’Connell’s 2022 team that went 13-4 and lost at home to the Giants in the playoffs. Packers are on a roll (5-0 ATS) and out to avenge a Week 4 loss to the Vikes.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 27.
OTHER PICKS
CHARGERS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon Saturday, NFL Network.
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 42.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 9-6/10-5; Patriots 3-12/6-8-1.
Outlook: After beating the Broncos impressively to snap a two-game losing streak, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a victory (or losses by the Colts and Dolphins). The Patriots have lost their last five (2-3 ATS) but showed some spunk in a 24-21 loss to the Bills last week. And rookie Drake Maye has a 92.6 rating (70.3%, 7 TDs, 5 INTs) in that span.
Pick: Chargers 26, Patriots 20.
BRONCOS at BENGALS
Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network.
Line: Bengals by 3½. Total: 49.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 9-6/11-4; Bengals 7-8/9-6.
Outlook: Joe Burrow and the Bengals have won three straight (3-0 ATS) in a desperate bid for an unlikely playoff spot. But those victories came against losing teams — the Cowboys, Titans and Browns. Now they get the Broncos, who have kind of done the same thing but at least have beaten the Falcons and Bucs and covered against the Chiefs.
Pick: Bengals 27, Broncos 24.
CARDINALS at RAMS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network.
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 7-8/9-6; Rams 9-6/8-7.
Outlook: Sean McVay’s Rams have taken control of the NFC West with four consecutive wins (4-0 ATS), including three on the road, and look like a team you don’t want to face in the playoffs. The Cardinals have lost four of five (2-3 ATS) and were eliminated from the playoffs with an OT loss to the Panthers last week. Kyler Murray always has a chance to make it interesting, but he has an 80.2 rating (4 TDs, 6 INTs) in his last five games.
Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 21.
RAIDERS at SAINTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Raiders by 1. Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 3-12/6-8-1; Saints 5-10/6-9.
Outlook: The possible return of Saints QB Derek Carr from a broken left (non-throwing) hand against his former team might be the only intrigue in this matchup of non-playoff teams. The Raiders snapped a 10-game losing streak with a 19-14 victory over the Jaguars at home, but they’re 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS on the road since beating the Ravens (how did that happen?) in Week 2.
Pick: Saints 19, Raiders 17.
PANTHERS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Buccaneers by 8½. Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 4-11/7-8; Buccaneers 8-7/9-6.
Outlook: Betting against the Panthers looked like easy money when they started 1-7 SU/ATS, but they’re 3-4 SU/6-1 ATS since. Baker Mayfield (103.5, 34 TDs, 15 INTs) is interception-prone but also big-play prone.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 23.
COWBOYS at EAGLES
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Eagles by 8½. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 7-8/8-6-1; Eagles 12-3/9-6.
Outlook: Kenny Pickett is likely to start for Jalen Hurts (concussion). Cowboys have won four of five (4-1 ATS) — the only loss in the last minute to the Bengals. The last time the Eagles’ defense allowed 30-plus points, they held the Browns to nine the next week.
Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 13.
TITANS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jaguars by 1. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 3-12/2-13; Jaguars 3-12/7-7-1.
Outlook: This could come down to which team wants it less. The Titans and Jaguars are among five 3-12 teams that could get the No. 1 pick or fall to No. 10 in the final two weeks. Jags won 10-6 at Nissan Stadium on Dec. 8.
Pick: Jaguars 12, Titans 6.
FALCONS at COMMANDERS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Commanders by 4. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 8-7/6-8-1; Commanders 10-5/9-5-1.
Outlook: The streaky Commanders have won three straight — after losing three straight — after winning three straight. The Falcons beat the Giants in Michael Penix’s first NFL start, but this time they’re playing somebody.
Pick: Commanders 30, Falcons 23.
LIONS at 49ERS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Lions by 4. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 13-2/10-5; 49ers 6-9/5-10.
Outlook: Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win and a Vikings loss. You’d think the 49ers can take advantage of the Lions’ injuries on defense, but they’ve scored 17, 6, 10, 10 and 17 points in five of their last six games — with 38 vs. the Bears the outlier.
Pick: Lions 28, 49ers 23.