Six thoughts, numbers and observations on the Penguins at the Holiday break
The Pittsburgh Penguins have a couple of days off so let us talk about a few different topics.
With a few days off between games at the Holiday break let us check in with a few thoughts, numbers and observations on the Pittsburgh Penguins through the first three months of the season. Mostly because I have a lot of thoughts.
1. Sidney Crosby is back on track for his point per game run
Even though Crosby is not scoring a ton of goals at the moment (that might be starting to change) he is still playing some world-class, dominant hockey and thanks to his eight points over the past three games he is now back well above a point-per-game pace for the season (39 points in 36 games). If he maintains that average for the remainder of the season it would be his 20th consecutive season averaging a point per game, breaking a tie with Wayne Gretzky for the most consecutive point per game seasons. It’s not one of the NHL’s big records or milestones, but that does not make it any less impressive to be that consistently dominant for that long. He still has the ability to dominate and carry the team.
2. Rickard Rakell’s bounce back is one of the Penguins’ biggest positive developments
During the 2022-23 season there was a pretty convincing argument to be made that Rickard Rakell was one of the Penguins’ top-three players, and perhaps one of their most impactful. He was productive, he was really good, and every line he played on seemed to be their best line at that given moment.
During the 2023-24 season he was one of their most disappointing players, seeing a steep decrease in production while making almost zero impact when he was on the ice. It looked like his contract was going to be another albatross on the books and a waste of time and cap space.
Maybe his contract will still age poorly in the long run, but he has been worth every penny of the $5 million salary cap hit he has. At the holiday break he is leading the team with 16 goals, has already surpassed his goal total from a year ago in literally half the games, and is on pace for 36 goals over 82 games, which would be a new career high.
Getting a chance to play alongside Crosby and Rust has certainly helped, but he has also been a great fit and addition to that spot on his own merit. He has been outstanding, which is big for two reasons.
The first is if the Penguins are still in the playoff race, it’s obviously great to have a top-line scorer.
The second is if the Penguins slide out of the playoff race his contract might be more moveable than it seemed to be over the summer.
3. Erik Karlsson is coming on
Karlsson’s first season-and-a-half with the Penguins has been a little ..... let’s say ..... rocky.
He has been, for the most part, fine. Especially offensively. But the Penguins were not expecting “fine” when he arrived here.
He has not made the overall impact that was expected, and some of his defensive shortcomings have been glaring at times, and even downright appalling at others. It does not always look pretty.
But I do think sometimes he gets a little too much of the criticism and blame and has probably been a little better than the perception. That has been especially true during this recent Penguins turnaround where he has been pretty consistently outstanding.
Over the past 15 games the Penguins are outscoring teams 18-12 when Karlsson is on the ice during 5-on-5 play, while he has 13 points and has seen a lot of the offense run through him.
Both he and Kris Letang have played significantly better over the past month. It is probably not a coincidence that has also been the Penguins’ best month of the season.
4. Goaltending is still a huge concern
Since the night before Thanksgiving the Penguins have one of the NHL’s best records. They are doing that despite still getting some less-than-stellar goaltending. Their collective 5-on-5 save percentage during that stretch is 26th in the NHL, and still has them near the bottom of the league. Their all situations save percentage has been a little better, rising all the way up to 15th thanks in large part to some outstanding play on the penalty kill. I see two potential problems here. 1) I don’t know if that penalty kill goaltending can sustain itself, and 2) The Penguins are not a dominant enough team 5-on-5 to overcome that sort of goaltending long-term.
Jarry has been better in the sense that he is not giving away many games, and has at least had a save percentage over .900 in six of his past 10 appearances. But we have been watching him for almost a decade now to know how hot-and-cold he can run, and Alex Nedeljkovic has not really provided much stability in his role. Even with the rest of the team playing better, this is still going to be a huge concern.
5. The offense is balanced
When it comes to the Penguins as a team, one of my go-to signs for how well they are playing and how good they are is what they are doing as a team when Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not on the ice.
What kind of depth do they have? How is the supporting cast playing? Do they have some complementary players?
Over the past month the Penguins are outscoring their opponents 16-13 when neither Crosby or Malkin are on the ice during 5-on-5 play, while they are also averaging 3.65 goals per 60 minutes. Some of the underlying numbers are not as good, which does bring into question the long-term sustainability of their performance, but they are holding their own with the bottom-six and balancing things out offensively. Speaking of which......
6. Blake Lizotte — the best addition of the offseason
Not that the competition has been steep, but Lizotte has not only been the best addition of the offseason, he has been an extremely welcome addition. I am not even talking about the eight goals in 20 games, either. (Mostly because that will not continue.)
It is the defensive presence and just all around solid play that has made him such a welcome addition. His defensive metrics are not only the best on the team by far, they are some of the best in the entire NHL and he has really helped stabilize the middle part of the lineup.
He is everything some of last year’s bottom-six additions were supposed to be, and in some cases at a cheaper price and on a better contract.