NFL straight-up picks, Week 17: Can Steelers rebound on Christmas? Will Bengals keep playoff hopes lit?

Week 17 is where things get tricky. Which recently eliminated from playoff contention teams are going to put up a fight in order to spoil an opponents’ poseason hopes? Who will be running at 80 percent, hoping to get to the offseason healthy enough to enjoy a badly needed vacation?

This complicates a season in which underdogs have won fewer games outright than any other since 2017. Chalk has dominated; only 69 of 239 games played through December 22 were won by teams that weren’t betting favorites.

That makes the smart play to back the teams giving away points across sportsbooks this holiday week. It’s a sound strategy, but not one I’m about to follow after a good, not great season has left me in second place among FTW’s picks panel.

Let’s try and get back on top with a few modest upset picks as the 2024 NFL Playoff field sorts itself out. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person attaché ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, who is off this week, and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 17 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over the New York Giants

Why I like this pick:

The Colts opted to throw it back to the 1970s with a run-heavy approach and it worked against the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 (please ignore Tennessee’s late 23-0 run that made that game entirely too close). Jonathan Taylor is peaking and New York has a bottom 10 run defense. If he gets going, it will create the space Anthony Richardson needs to thrive (ideally on 20 or fewer dropbacks). The Giants’ pass defense is even worse than their run D.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Colts are difficult to trust and are one of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ three wins this season.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 13-3 (.813)

Hardest favorite to back: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over the Denver Broncos

Why I like this pick:

Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level and his offense is putting up 32.5 points per game over his last seven games. The Broncos fell apart late in Week 16 in a similarly important situation and now have to travel to face a team fighting for its postseason life. Cincinnati has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins; Denver does not.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Every time the Bengals face what feels like a “must win” game, they lose — see Weeks 8 through 13 in which defeats to the Eagles, Steelers, Ravens and Chargers dropped them to 4-8. Bo Nix is playing competent football and competence is all it takes to put up a bunch of points on the Cincinnati defense. Denver has one of the league’s best pass blocking units and the Bengals have exactly one pass rusher who’ll be of any concern to them.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 10-6 (.625)

Upset pick of the week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs

The Steelers defense could keep playing this badly, especially against Patrick Mahomes. Previous appeals for Kansas City to pay for its incredible record in one-possession games have gone unheeded. Russell Wilson may need to make in-game adjustments to keep from being figured out, and we saw how poorly he handled that in two seasons with the Broncos.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 5-11 (.313)