Trump’s big Mike Johnson decision

After the House passed a shutdown-averting spending bill Friday, a very relieved Speaker Mike Johnson proclaimed to reporters that President-elect Donald Trump was “certainly happy about this outcome.”

Not by a long shot.

Amid the chaos in Washington, I was in Palm Beach talking to people close to the past and future president and called up other confidants afterward. This much became clear to me: Not only is Trump unhappy with the funding deal, he’s unhappy with Johnson, too.

He’s unhappy that he didn’t get the debt ceiling hike he made clear he wanted. He felt blindsided by the initial deal Johnson struck with Democrats. And, in the end, he was unimpressed with the entire chaotic process, which left the incoming administration questioning whether Johnson is capable of managing an even thinner majority next year.

“The president is upset — he wanted the debt ceiling dealt with,” said one Trump insider, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump and Johnson.

“In the past couple weeks, we’ve questioned whether [Johnson has] been an honest broker,” said another.

“No one thinks he’s strong. No one says, ‘Damn, this guy’s a fighter,’” went another reaction I got to Johnson’s bid to keep the speaker’s gavel.

“I don’t see how Johnson survives,” said a fourth.

Johnson and his allies have good points to make in his defense — that the president had unrealistic expectations of what was possible, that Joe Biden is still president and Democrats control the Senate, thus limiting how much could be achieved.

But when it comes to Johnson staying as speaker, all that matters is how he’s perceived in Trump’s eyes.

Maybe this is just another instance where Trump toys with one of his minions just watch him squirm — just ask Kevin McCarthy, Johnson's predecessor, what that's like. But Republicans tell me there’s no way Johnson will win the gavel again without Trump not only endorsing him but actively whipping for him.

And, as of this weekend, it’s an open question at Mar-a-Lago about whether Trump will lift a finger to help him. Trump is sitting back and watching the coverage, I’m told, mulling whether it's worth it to defenestrate another speaker.

“If he wanted to bury Mike Johnson, everyone knows he could — and he hasn't,” said one of the previously quoted Trump confidants. “While the president thinks there could have been a better deal, he also hasn’t pulled the ripcord. Where we end up in a week or two is largely undecided.”

Inside Trump’s exasperation

Frustration with Johnson started well before this week’s meltdown on the Hill. In several conversations with Johnson after the election — as reported previously in Playbook — Trump mentioned his interest in quickly raising the debt ceiling to clean the slate for 2025.

One of the Trump insiders called the borrowing limit a “cleaver hanging over his head in the middle of the year” — something that would give Democrats major leverage to oppose the spending cuts he is seeking, given how thoroughly Republicans loathe voting to raise it: “He brings it up in every conversation — he says the debt ceiling is going to be the thing that [Senate Democratic Leader] Chuck [Schumer] uses” to obstruct his agenda.

The way Hill Republicans see it, Trump never explicitly endorsed attaching the debt ceiling bill to the year-end spending package until two days before the shutdown deadline. If Trump — never shy about what he wants — was that serious about raising the borrowing limit in the lame duck, they argue, wouldn’t he have been tweeting about it for weeks, publicly demanding lawmakers act?

Another Trump official bristled at that suggestion, arguing that it’s not Trump’s job to get into the minutiae of legislative strategy: “He said, ‘Deal with the debt ceiling prior to me coming into office.’ … Let’s not play semantics.”

The situation escalated Tuesday when Johnson unveiled his deal with Democrats, which included a host of measures that had little to do with keeping the government open.

Multiple Republicans on the Hill said the speaker’s team let the incoming administration know exactly what would be in the bill — including pay raises for members, transferring ownership of Washington’s RFK Stadium and restricting investments in China — though they acknowledged that didn’t necessarily mean Trump himself knew.

“Maybe they should have taken it to the top sooner,” one Hill aide said. “There was a lot of CYA after Elon [Musk] began picking apart, line by line, on the bill,” another one added, suggesting Trump’s team didn’t fully convey what was happening to their boss.

Trump insiders firmly pushed back, arguing that while Johnson’s team may have provided some “bullet points” and toplines, they didn’t get a full picture of the deal in advance. (“Bullshit,” the second Hill aide said.)

Things only deteriorated further from there. After the initial deal collapsed and Johnson agreed to add the debt ceiling to a Plan B proposal, Trump officials claim that Johnson assured them the votes would be there to get it over the finish line. Trump decided at that point to endorse the bill and pressure Republicans to fall in line.

When that deal failed spectacularly, with 38 Republicans voting against it, Trump’s team was floored — and felt Johnson had made Trump look foolish for weighing in. “You can't bring the president a deal that you say you have the votes for if you don't have the votes,” one said.

Johnson could have recovered some favor with the president had he taken one final step, they say: Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance both made clear they’d be fine allowing a holiday-season shutdown to try to force Democrats into swallowing a debt ceiling deal.

Johnson considered it, people close to the speaker said, but he never committed. Like most senior Republicans, Johnson knew that denying Christmastime paychecks to military members or FEMA workers delivering hurricane relief would be an impossible fight to win.

“A shutdown would have bogged Republicans down, taking away our ability to hit the ground running and risked delaying Trump’s swearing in,” the previously quoted aide said.

Instead, Johnson scrambled to assemble a new, slimmer CR deal that also didn’t include Trump’s debt ceiling demand. Trump decided to stay out of it, and it passed 366-34 — with the help of 196 Democrats.

Johnson’s fate in the balance

Johnson has been underestimated throughout his 13 months in office — not only by his avowed foes, but by other senior Republicans who have been predicting his downfall for months. Each time, with Trump’s support, Johnson was able to survive.

This time feels different. And it couldn’t come at a worse moment, with less than two weeks until the critical Jan. 3 speakership vote.

Those close to Trump don’t expect the president-elect to outright call for Johnson to go, though that could still happen. What seems more likely is that should Trump decide he’d prefer a different partner leading the House, he simply lets Johnson flail as he struggles to land 218 votes.

Johnson’s best hope rests with the calendar and the clock. Trump, I’m told, is aware that an ugly, protracted speakership battle could stall momentum for his agenda, leaving the House in a state of paralysis — just as it did after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster last year.

Two senior GOP aides said this weekend that without an elected speaker, the Jan. 6 certification of Trump’s victory will be delayed. What’s more, Trump is eager to start moving on his legislative agenda as soon as he’s inaugurated, hoping to sign a border bill within 30 days.

“The president recognizes the difficulty of electing a speaker right now — any speaker — is not easy,” one of the Trump confidants said.

So Trump has decided to keep his powder dry as things play out — intentionally so, I’m told. While some in the greater MAGAsphere are fuming about Johnson, key figures such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) are weighing in on his behalf.

The speaker’s fate could ultimately come down to Trump’s gut. As the president-elect told Fox News amid all the drama, Johnson will “easily remain speaker” if he acts “decisively and tough.”

The reality is this: Trump now sees him as waffling and weak.