Debt ceiling woes suggests limits to Trump power over GOP

President-elect Trump wields tremendous power among GOP lawmakers in the House and Senate, but his struggle to convince Republicans to bend to his will on the debt ceiling suggest it has its limits.

Thirty-eight conservative Republicans on Thursday voted against a stopgap funding measure that included a two-year suspension of the debt ceiling, arguing they could not agree to such a request without offsetting spending cuts.

The House on Friday moved forward with a stopgap that did not raise the debt ceiling at all, effectively defying Trump’s wishes. The GOP did say it would seek to deal with the debt ceiling as part of two budget bills next year that would move forward Trump’s agenda while cutting government spending.

It was an unusual moment in Washington after the second White House win for the president-elect, who has been on a roll and has met with little opposition from his party.

Republicans who spoke to The Hill said there were unique reasons for why the debt hike wasn’t included in the spending bill. But some also said the GOP is less unified in general now in comparison to Trump’s first term. And the razor-tight GOP majority in the House also will be a problem.

“When I was there, we had bigger margins, but also they weren’t that big. We had more of a team,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), an ex-House member.

She said her mentality as a House member was “let’s help the team.”

“That spirit is gone, unfortunately,” she said of the House today.

To be sure, that vote was not an indictment of Trump's power. There is a group of conservative Republicans who oppose both debt ceiling hikes and continuing resolutions (CR) in all forms regardless of who is pursuing them.

Yet Trump not only endorsed the proposal, he also threatened primary challenges to anyone who voted “no.”

“I don’t think it necessarily bodes that the president is going to lose his power,” Capito said. “I do think [House Republicans] are asserting themselves.” 

In the Senate, Trump has been seeking to get lawmakers to bend to his will over nominations to his administration.

Scores of lawmakers made it clear they would not back former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) bid to be attorney general, and Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration after only a week.

That was another example of GOP lawmakers not bending to Trump’s will, but it was followed by a comeback of sorts for the administration.

When the nomination of Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary started to flatline, Trump and MAGA forces helped bring him back to life. They didn’t want to lose another nominee and increase any possible momentum against Trump’s picks.

Hegseth is now seen as being in stronger shape to win confirmation, Senate GOP sources say. 

The battle over the spending measure last week will raise questions about Trump’s top priorities in his first 100 days in office.

Those priorities will be shaped by two bills under budget reconciliation rules that prevent a Senate filibuster. The first is likely to include major provisions on energy, the border and immigration. The second will include an extension of the Trump tax cuts that could go well beyond the 2017 bill Trump and the GOP put into law.

“You would have to be super human to have to … feel like you have absolute control over such a diverse group of Republicans, but also between the margins, diversity and the differences in either end of the spectrum.” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

“I wouldn’t expect any current or past president to be able to have absolute control over that. … There’s no president that can bat 1.000 with the games being played in the House for the remaining period.”

Tillis added that Trump has to be measured when dealing with House Republicans at this point because there are bigger fish to fry in the coming months. 

“If you browbeat these people and in spite of that, they vote ‘no’ and oppose things, they get emboldened and it’s a lot easier for them to vote ‘no’ moving forward,” he said. “We can’t afford that given all the promises we need to fulfill.” 

Multiple GOP lawmakers noted that despite Trump’s last-minute debt ceiling request that turned the CR fight on its head, his touch in talks could have been much more heavy-handed. He was not actively whipping members to green-light the debt ceiling or making calls to do just that. 

If he had, these lawmakers said it might have made a big difference. They said they fully expect House Republicans to fall in line when Trump does make those calls.

“If he himself had picked up the phone and made a bunch of calls, the result would have been different,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), another former House member. “If it had been a hill he wanted to die on, he would have. … When he’s ready to die on a hill for an issue, he’ll do it.”

“There’s nobody like Trump. We all know it, there’s nobody like him. When he puts his complete imprimatur and all of his energy behind something, he has a tendency to get it,” she continued, adding that she “absolutely” believes that will help come reconciliation time.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), the informal top liaison between the upper chamber and the House, told The Hill that if Trump had made those calls for the CR including a debt limit, the 38 “no” votes could have been sliced in half.

He also noted that despite his influence, Trump is not the president yet.

“Trump has pushed, but he’s still in Florida,” Mullin said. “January 20th, this is a different story.”