Agriculture: Challenges sour kinnow trade

Citrus, historically Pakistan’s largest fruit export, has experienced a significant decline in recent years, dropping from 558,376 tonnes valued at $211 million in FY21 to just 322,892 tonnes worth $91.64m in FY24.

Pakistan’s citrus sector is grappling with multiple supply-side challenges, including shrinking orchard areas, declining yields, and deteriorating fruit quality. Just over a four-year period (2018-19 to 2022-23), the area under citrus has decreased by 14 per cent nationwide and 14.84pc in Punjab, as farmers increasingly shift to high-return field crops due to its declining yields.

The current yield stands at a mere 5.77 tonnes per acre, below its yields recorded in the 1990s. Additionally, due to declining fruit quality, hardly 30pc of last year’s harvest met export-quality standards (A-grade).

Several factors, including poor orchard management, widespread pest and disease infestations, the escalating impacts of climate change, and the increasing severity of smog, have contributed to this decline.

Citrus sector struggles as exporters cite declining orchard yields, climate change, and poor fruit quality as key challenges

Exporters, however, highlight the following key factors that have adversely impacted exports and led to the closure of many citrus processing factories in Bhalwal (Sargodha) — Pakistan’s primary citrus export hub.

First, ‘kinnow’ (mandarin), which constitutes over 90pc of Pakistan’s citrus exports, is a seeded variety introduced about 60 years ago. Its quality has been declining, particularly due to the recent climate change and smog, making it less competitive against the seedless or low-seeded mandarins and oranges produced by countries such as the United States, China, Turkey, Italy, Spain, and Morocco.

Second, climate change has shortened Pakistan’s citrus harvesting season to just November through February, coinciding with the harvest periods of major citrus-exporting countries. As a result, exporters have lost lucrative opportunities to sell kinnow at better prices during under-supply periods — before and after the peak supply season.

Third, declining orchard yields, combined with rising agricultural input costs, have driven up farm gate prices for kinnow to Rs3,000-4,000 per 40kgs. These elevated prices, coupled with escalating business costs, including taxes and freight charges, have further eroded the sector’s competitiveness in recent years.

Since 93pc of the total citrus area falls in Punjab, the provincial government has taken note of this decline and recently announced Rs1.2 billion for the sector’s revival. According to media reports, the government plans to establish two new citrus research centres in Toba Tek Singh and Layyah.

Traditionally, the government has relied heavily on “brick-and-mortar” initiatives, dishing out agricultural inputs and implements to a select group of farmers. While well-intentioned, these measures have consistently failed to achieve meaningful, sector-wide transformation or deliver sustainable, long-term impact.

Currently, several research centres and universities across the country, including the Citrus Research Institute of Sargodha and the Citrus Research Station Sahiwal, are pursuing citrus-related research. However, they struggle with inadequate research facilities, a shortage of trained scientists, and severe budgetary constraints, often barely covering salaries.

Establishing new centres, rather than strengthening the human and institutional capacity of existing ones, risks further diluting the government’s scarce resources and efforts. The proliferation of research centres appears impractical, given that citrus cultivation in Punjab spans only 145,000 hectares, primarily concentrated in four districts.

Therefore, improving citrus orchards requires a policy shift in agricultural extension services. Under the current area-specific model, public sector extension workers provide generic advisory services for dozens of crops while also handling irrelevant administrative duties. As a result, extension staff often lack the capacity, motivation, and time to upgrade their knowledge and skills.

The government may consider developing private extension services for the citrus sector by imparting comprehensive, year-long practical training to a select group of 100-150 horticulturists (M.Sc. Horticulture) on international best practices by engaging local and international citrus experts. At a minimum, the trainees’ stipend could be financed through the Chief Minister’s internship programme.

Likewise, the government, in collaboration with exporters, can help the private sector establish rental services for farm machinery (tree pruners, boom sprayers, slashers, single-sided rotavators, etc.). This initiative is particularly crucial because, unlike the mango sector, citrus farmers generally have smaller landholdings.

Until new varieties are commercially introduced, an incentive-based mechanism can be offered to encourage farmers to plant new orchards using disease-free, true-to-type plants of existing varieties. New orchards should be established using a high-density planting system or optimised planting geometry, coupled with an efficient irrigation method, at the very least, channel irrigation.

However, for plant provision, the government is better positioned to act as a facilitator and regulator in establishing certified nurseries within the private sector, while research centres focus on developing germplasm units, as is the global practice.

In conclusion, addressing the issue of declining citrus exports requires efforts on both the supply and demand sides. Currently, citrus exports are limited to around 40 international markets, and this needs to be enhanced. As a stepping stone, the Department of Plant Protection should sign sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) protocols with other potential markets, particularly those with less stringent quarantine requirements.

Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, and Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 23rd, 2024