How China could boost Trump’s interest in Africa
President Biden made what may be his diplomatic curtain call this month with a long-promised trip to Africa, becoming the first president to visit Angola and first since former President Obama to visit the continent — with President-elect Trump in between.
It’s unclear whether Trump will pay more attention to Africa this time around, but the stakes of global influence in Africa are rising as the continent becomes an increasingly important part of China’s geopolitical arsenal.
Trump will face a number of pressing questions in the continent: whether to play a more active role in Sudan’s civil war, how to use trade as a counterbalance to China’s massive public and private investments across the continent, and whether to continue some Biden-led initiatives like a $3 billion investment in transcontinental transit routes through Angola, Zambia and Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kholofelo Kugler, a scholar specializing in African trade and economy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. has “lost a lot of ground” when it comes to strategic opportunities in Africa.
“For better or for worse, the Chinese have been a little bit more deliberate and a little bit mindful about fostering relationships with African countries, notwithstanding human rights records or democracy. It’s been transactional,” she said. “China has far stripped the U.S. in the last few years."
The Biden administration has also sought to develop and boost humanitarian efforts, including providing aid in the midst of a historic drought and protecting marginalized groups such as LGBTQ+ people in Uganda, some of which is likely to be axed with Trump in the Oval Office and Republicans leading both chambers in Congress.
Cameron Hudson, a senior associate in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues the Biden administration took an overzealous approach toward Africa, resulting in broken promises.
Biden, fulfilling a promise made at the 2022 African Leaders Summit, this month became the first president to visit Africa since Obama visited Kenya and Ethiopia. Other promises, such as his “all in for Africa” strategy, Hudson says have left more to be desired.
Hudson noted that the sitting president hosted a notably small number of African leaders for one-on-one meetings, despite promising to “accelerate high-level exchanges.”
But Kugler and Hudson aren’t convinced Trump will mark a major shift in U.S. strategy in Africa, though they said he may take a different approach.
"Which is worse? Making a promise and then taking no measurable steps to deliver on it or not making the promise at all?” Hudson asked. “The outcome is gonna be the same for Africa.”
Trump has both talked tough toward China and regularly expressed his appreciation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with recent reports indicating that Trump extended an inauguration invite to the communist party leader. Trump has promised a series of steep tariffs on China, which Beijing says would spur a destructive trade war.
How much Trump or Xi try to fight that war in Africa is a pressing question for the continent. Kugler said the U.S. may not view Africa as a strategically important enough region to go toe-to-toe with China.
She said one likely possibility is the Trump administration “trying to sort of discipline China in terms of bilateral trade with the U.S.”
Russia is also increasing its presence on the continent, having long been accused of backing private military companies to undermine democratic efforts, boosting up dictators and engaging in the joint plundering of natural resources.
Ultimately, Kugler said a “mindset change” is required for any American administration to truly expand its influence in Africa.
During Trump’s first term, he advocated for Congress to reduce developmental investments with his “America First” mindset, with Africa feeling the brunt of the blow. He did, however, initiate the Prosper Africa strategy to assist U.S. companies seeking to do business in Africa. But he also alienated leaders from the country, referring to “s---hole” countries on the continent.
Experts said Trump’s transactional approach could open the gate for more U.S. business presence in the area.
“I think that Trump is going to take a narrower view, a more defined view of what U.S. interests are in Africa,” Hudson predicted. “[Trump] will be very clear what he cares about and what he doesn't care about.”
Trump’s incoming press secretary Karoline Leavitt, when asked about Trump’s likely approach to the region, told The Hill that the incoming president would take “necessary action” to “restore peace through strength around the world.”
Restoring peace will be a particular challenge in Sudan, where a civil war has been raging since April 2023, when rival military factions — the Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — started fighting.
The Biden administration has taken a largely humanitarian approach to the war, part of an international coalition that has had little success in negotiating a ceasefire. Kugler said Trump may seek to end the war, even if it means entrenching military rule in the country.
“Biden’s administration was more concerned about how the conflict could be resolved, not that it could be resolved” he said. “It was important that the right people take power in Sudan, not that the conflict end.”
The Biden administration did not respond to The Hill's request for comment.
Hudson said the impact on leaders and communities across the continent will be mixed as the Trump administration reorients its foreign policy priorities.
Hudson said countries that are on a fragile democratic path, such as Ghana and Botswana, may not receive the same attention from Trump that they saw under Biden. Other countries like Uganda, where the government outlawed homosexuality, may see Biden-era sanctions lifted under Trump, among the reasons he may be more popular with some of Africa’s strongmen.
“They see him as an authoritative figure, as somebody who is self-made,” Kugler said. “As somebody who’s not going to sit there and preach to them about human rights and LGBTQIA issues.”
Hudson and Kugler think there is the possibility some of Biden’s priorities will carry over in the Biden administration, particularly the Lobito Corridor, a multibillion-dollar investment in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia meant to boost economic competitiveness.
The project has bipartisan support in Congress. Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) issued a statement earlier this month saying, “Strategic investments like the Lobito Corridor help us better compete with China and secure access to critical minerals and other important resources that will improve our own economy.”
“Our national security will be strengthened through continued U.S. investment combined with efforts to bring peace to the region, like our efforts to end the long-simmering conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda through the Luanda Process," they wrote.
The Corridor is largely backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, which was formed under Trump’s first administration. Trump tapped the first CEO of the federal agency, Adam Boehler, as the hostage affairs envoy in his new administration.
Other administration picks, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of State and tech billionaire Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, could signal his competitive stance against China and Russia.
Musk has been involved with African leaders, meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Namibian President Nangolo Mbumba, and Lesotho Prime Minister Sam Matekane in September of this year to discuss opportunities with his tech empire.