How Trump handles the U.S.–Mexico relationship is vital, for the U.S. and California

In response to President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, much has been written about how this will impact America’s relationship with foreign countries.

And while much of the focus has been on relations with NATO, Europe, and China, the U.S.-Mexico relationship in the second Trump era may be just as important.

Not only is a positive relationship good for the United States generally, but it is even more important for California, which is home to more than one-third (36%) of all Mexican immigrants according to the Migration Policy Institute.

To that end, it is vital that Trump and the Mexican come to a mutually beneficial agreement that both secures the U.S. Southern border, and avoids destabilizing the relationship to our own detriment.

Trump’s opening bid – threats of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports unless the government sufficiently cracks down on the flow of migrants and drugs into the U.S. – while justifiable, may do little to solve the problem. 

Further, a tit-for-tat tariff war and Trump’s threats of mass deportations will certainly damage the U.S. economy, something Trump would likely want to avoid.

Not only is Mexico the United States’ top trading partner – bilateral trade sat at $807 billion in 2023, more than $230 billion than trade with China – but Trump will need Mexico’s buy-in to genuinely tackle the issues of immigration, stemming the flow of illegal fentanyl, and human trafficking.

Put another way, the only way to effectively secure our Southern border and stop the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the country is by working with – rather than against – Mexico, with the realization that a mutually supportive relationship is in both sides’ interest.

Following a discussion between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum last month, prospects for a positive relationship took a hit. 

In response to Trump’s tariff threat, Sheinbaum threatened a tariff war, saying, “If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs.”

To be sure, while the U.S. has the advantage in a potential trade war, the security and economic consequences of one would be to no one’s benefit.

On the security side, Mexico can do more to stop the flow of drugs and migrants. Although often, the issue is a lack of capabilities, not a lack of willingness – earlier this month, Mexican security forces seized nearly $400 million worth of fentanyl bound for the U.S.

True, more must be done, but the U.S. stands to gain more by working with Mexico to build up their security forces rather than trying to force Mexico to fight a war that they’re unable to win alone.

Domestically, the American economy also stands to take a hit should relations sour, particularly in the cost of food. 

Not only would mass deportations create immense labor strains on American farms – nearly one-half (44%) of foreign farm workers are undocumented – but roughly two-thirds of the vegetables and one-half of the nuts we eat come from Mexico, per the New York Times.

Given that 90% of the avocados Americans consume come from Mexico, and the prominent role they play for local restaurants and consumers, Californians would feel a particularly painful sting. 

In that same vein, as of 2022, Mexico was the 2nd largest buyer of exported American goods, spending more than $300 billion, per the Mexican Embassy.

Quite simply a deal that includes Mexican steps to improve security on their side of the border, as well as provides for a generally positive relationship between the two countries is in everyone’s interest.

To be clear, Trump’s concerns about Mexican efforts to strengthen their side of the Southern border are wholly valid, and Americans’ concerns over immigration were a significant reason Trump won the 2024 election. 

Trump, who considers himself a master at negotiating, should be able to make clear to Mexico that they stand to gain by stepping up efforts to crack down on the flow of migrants and drugs. 

He could start by forswearing threats of military intervention against the cartels, an extreme measure which would only inflame tensions. Instead, the U.S. military should provide intelligence and logistical support so Mexico can tame the cartels themselves. 

For their part, the Mexican government must continue demonstrating a willingness to confront the cartels and efforts to halt the flow of migrants before they reach the U.S. border. 

During Trump’s first term, he and then-Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador enjoyed a relatively amicable relationship, despite the latter being a staunch political leftist.

The bilateral ties helped to significantly improve America’s border security, and greatly reduced America’s dependence on Beijing by easing access for American firms to manufacture goods in Mexico rather than China.

Ultimately, the importance of a positive U.S. – Mexico relationship cannot be understated. 

The roadmap is readily available, but both sides must realize that the best way forward – for both countries – is a mutually positive and supportive relationship centered on genuine concerns over migration and drugs.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant and founder of Schoen Cooperman Research.