TIMELINE: The rise and fall of Canadian PM Trudeau’s political fortunes

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s political options have narrowed after the leader of a small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power said on Friday, December 21, that he would present a formal motion of no-confidence in parliament.

The House of Commons is on winter break until January 27, but the statement from New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh was a potentially term-ending blow at the end of a bad week for Trudeau. He has been under pressure since Monday, when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland posted a stinging resignation letter on X.

If all opposition parties back the no-confidence motion, an election will take place. A string of polls over the last 18 months show the Liberals, suffering from voter fatigue and anger over high prices and a housing crisis, would be soundly defeated by the right-of-center Conservatives.

Here is a timeline of key events charting Trudeau’s fortunes over nearly a decade in Canadian politics:

October 2013 – Wins race to lead Liberal Party

Trudeau, the son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, wins the leadership of the party when it is at an all-time low. The Liberals, out of power for more than seven years at that point, is reduced to third place in the House of Commons in 2011 for the first time.

October 2015 – Leads party to victory in federal election

Trudeau’s Liberals, campaigning on a message of change and hope, wins majority of seats in the federal election, defeating the Conservatives. It is the first time the third-placed party in the House of Commons wins an election in Canada.

December 2017 – Found guilty of conflict of interest

Canada’s ethics commissioner rules Trudeau had broken conflict-of-interest rules by accepting a vacation, gifts, and flights from the Aga Khan in 2016. It is the first time a prime minister had been found to have committed such a transgression.

February 2019 – SNC-Lavalin scandal

Former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould accuses government officials of inappropriately pressuring her to help construction company SNC-Lavalin avoid a corruption trial. The affair prompts the resignation of Wilson-Raybould, and of Treasury Board President Jane Philpott. Losing two women from cabinet is politically damaging for a prime minister who describes himself as a feminist.

In August, the ethics commissioner rules Trudeau and his officials had breached ethics rules. Trudeau takes responsibility but refuses to apologize.

September 2019 – Blackface scandal erupts ahead of election

Shortly after the 2019 election campaign began, photos emerge of Trudeau wearing blackface when he was younger. Trudeau, a strong advocate for multiculturalism, apologizes and says his life of privilege had come with a “blind spot.”

October 2019 – Liberals reduced to minority in House

In the October 21, 2019 election, the Liberals are reduced to a minority in the House of Commons, obliging them to strike deals with opposition legislators to govern.

August 2020 – Finance minister Morneau resigns

Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigns amid friction with Trudeau over how much funding is needed to help Canada recover from the pandemic. Morneau also comes under fire for his ties to a charity tapped to run a student grant program.

September 2021 – Failed bid to win back majority in House

Elections in Canada are supposed to be held every four years, but Trudeau triggers a national vote for September 20, 2021 in the hope that the electorate would reward his government for the way it handled the pandemic. The bid fails, and he is returned with a second successive minority.

July 2023 – Polls show liberals steadily losing popularity

Polls showed the Liberals only slightly trailing the Conservatives in the first half of 2023. In July, amid growing signs of voter fatigue, the gap suddenly widened, and it became increasingly clear a defeat was likely in 2025.

June 2024 – Liberals suffer bad defeat in special election

In a clear sign of the Liberals’ growing unpopularity, the party loses one of its safest seats in a special election in Toronto. Trudeau makes clear he would stay in office amid fresh questions about his future.

September 2024 – Key ally NDP withdraws automatic support

The New Democrats, who had kept Trudeau in power in return for increased social spending, announces they would withdraw their automatic support. This forces Trudeau to attempt to create new alliances to govern, but does not threaten to immediately trigger an election.

November 2024 – Trump pledges tariffs on Canada, Mexico

US president-elect Donald Trump said he would immediately sign an executive order upon taking office in January imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported to the United States from Mexico and Canada, a grave threat to Canada’s export-dependent economy.

December 16 – Finance minister Freeland resigns

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigns after Trudeau asked her to take a lesser position, taking away one of his most loyal allies over the past decade and the person who had been Canada’s lead trade negotiator during the first Trump presidency.

Freeland says she and Trudeau had clashed on issues including spending and how to handle possible US tariffs.

December 20 – NDP promises no-confidence motion

Singh says he would present a formal motion of no-confidence after the House of Commons elected chamber returns from a winter break in late January. The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, a larger opposition party, promises to back the motion and says there is no scenario where Trudeau survives. – Rappler.com