Is It Too Soon To Discuss The Lineup’s Batting Order?
In a word, yes. First of all it has been demonstrated that batting order is overrated, as putting the same players in any order yields surprisingly similar results in simulations. Second of all, Opening Day is 96 days away and a lot can — and undoubtedly will — happen in the coming 3 months.
My simple rebuttal to all this is: But it’s fun. Also it’s December 21st, which is mistakenly named by “scientists” as being the shortest day of the year. Any day without baseball is, by scientific definition, tied for the longest day of the year, so let’s look at the A’s roster and amuse ourselves by contemplating what the lineup could, and should, look like...
The 9 To Place
There appear to be 10 players now ticketed for being part of the A’s projected starting lineup, with Seth Brown and Miguel Andujar sharing LF. Making a lineup is complicated by the uncertainty as to how that “platoon” might be planned.
In theory Brown would get 2/3 of the starts, plugged into the lineup against RHP, but Andujar is a hitter the A’s might want to get into the lineup more often and he has relatively small platoon splits in his career: Andujar has batted .272/.302/.426, 99 wRC+ against RHP, .277/.315/.451, 110 wRC+ against LHP.
So I am going to suggest 3 lineups today: one vs. RHP with Brown in, one vs. RHP with Andujar in, and one against LHP.
Theory Driving The Lineups
In constructing possible lineups, here are some considerations you will see reflected:
- There is some value to alternating L/R some when you can, with the later innings and relievers with heavy platoon splits in mind. You don’t want to walk into a convenient opportunity for a reliever to come in and have a big advantage against those first 3 hitters he is required to face.
One caveat is that if you prepared to pinch hit Brown for Andujar or Andujar for Brown, that spot might be less of a concern but it still requires a player move, the thinning of the bench later, and the “pinch hitting penalty” that renders the average pinch hitter less effective than his career norms.
- Jacob Wilson is one of the tougher spots to place because on one hand his skill set makes him potentially valuable at the top of the order but he has yet to hit like someone you want to give that extra plate appearance to.
Basically if he’s one of your better hitters he is well suited to the top of the order but if he isn’t he should batting 8th or 9th. In 2 years he might be a no-brainer for the top but it’s anybody’s guess if and when he will reward the confidence of batting him high in the order.
So I have waffled a bit with him and put him at the top when it seems to make sense in context and at the bottom when it when it seems to make sense in context. Obviously if he hits much better or worse than expected he can find a more stable spot top or bottom.
- Current theory suggests your best hitter should bat 2nd, not 4th, but I have settled on Brent Rooker in the clean-up spot in all iterations because there isn’t another hitter who makes sense there in every lineup and I like to default to consistency — that is, I would sooner keep a player in one spot than move him around more than necessary.
So Rooker makes a lot of sense in either spot and rather than have him bounce back and forth I have allowed him to settle into a clean-up spot that doesn’t have a natural alternate anyway.
Zack Gelof is one of the hardest hitters to predict, coming off of a stellar 2023 and putrid 2024, and currently holding rare and dramatic “reverse platoon splits”. Strangely, in his first 207 games Gelof has batted .149/.244/.238 (41 wRC+) against LHP and .256/.310/.466 (119 wRC+) against RHP.
It’s hard to know what to predict going forward, but until he proves himself again Gelof belongs lower in the lineup and he actually has a good “double leadoff” profile for the 9th spot with his speed. So I have him in the lineup’s bottom 1/3 using the 9th spot at times.
OK, enough words: it’s time for some names. Here are the projected lineups with Nico, not Kotsay, at the helm...
vs. RHP with Brown
Butler - RF
Wilson - SS
Bleday - CF
Rooker - DH
Soderstrom - 1B
Urshela - 3B
Brown - LF
Langeliers - C
Gelof - 2B
vs. RHP with Andujar
Butler - RF
Andujar - LF
Bleday - CF
Rooker - DH
Soderstrom - 1B
Urshela - 3B
Gelof - 2B
Langeliers - C
Wilson - SS
vs. LHP:
Butler - RF
Wilson - SS
Andujar - LF
Rooker - DH
Urshela - 3B
Bleday - CF
Langeliers - C
Soderstrom - 1B
Gelof - 2B
Your thoughts and/or alternative ideas? It may not be the most impactful analysis but it sure is an amusing way to pass the few daylight hours the Winter Solstice has to offer.