What do advanced stats say about the strength of Texas' defense?
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Advanced metrics tell a similar story as traditional statistics about the Texas Longhorns defense this season — it's one of the best units in the country.
The Longhorns are 12.5-point favorites over the Clemson Tigers in the first round of the College Football Playoff at 3 p.m. Saturday at DKR-Texas Memorial Coliseum. A big reason why they are big favorites, according to The Action Network, is how well they rank in defensive metrics.
Metrics provided by CollegeFootballData.com show the Longhorns are the best team in the country in not allowing opponents to make "explosive" plays. The data uses every play that's considered successful and calculates how many points are expected to be scored on those plays.
For a play to be considered successful, it must meet one of the following criteria:
- Gain at least 50% of the needed yards to go on first down
- Gain at least 70% of yards to go to second down
- Gain 100% of yards to go on third and fourth downs
On those types of plays using the site's calculation for "expected points added," the Longhorns are tops in the country by allowing 1 point per play. Miami (OH) is second at 1.03 and Iowa is third at 1.05. Expected points are calculated based on field position, down and distance. The closer a team gets to the end zone and on favorable down and distances, the expected points go up.
The Longhorns are No. 2 in the country in allowing explosive plays on passing downs, allowing 1.61 expected points on such plays, so it might be a long day for Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik to take the top off of Texas' secondary. Passing downs are considered second down and seven or more yards to go or third and fourth downs with five or more yards to go.
Describing the Texas defense as one that creates havoc is appropriate using the metric that carries the same name. The havoc metric is the percentage of plays that result in a tackle for loss, pass breakup, forced fumble or interception. The Longhorns are No. 4 in the country with 22.2% of their defensive plays ending in havoc. Ole Miss, UTSA and Duke are ahead of Texas in the rankings.
Texas is also No. 2 in defensive power success, meaning they turn back opponents on third and fourth downs with 2 or fewer yards to go or on first and second downs in goal-to-go situations. The Longhorns don't allow teams to score or make first downs on roughly 45% of those plays. Only Pitt has been better than the Longhorns this season at 50%.