Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury 2 predictions roundtable: Will Fury get his revenge?

Oleksandr Usyk made history in his first fight with Tyson Fury. Now all he has to do is do it again.

No fighter had ever handed Fury a loss before (sorry, Francis Ngannou), but that’s exactly what Usyk did this past May when he went 12 exciting rounds with Fury, nearly finishing him in the ninth before eventually winning a decision in the eyes of two of the three judges. Just like that, Usyk—already the undisputed champion at cruiserweight—was now boxing’s undisputed heavyweight king.

A rematch was booked almost immediately and we are now less than a day away from seeing two of the best fighters in the world run it back. Will Usyk shut the door on this rivalry for good or does Fury capitalize on his chance for revenge (and likely set up a trilogy bout)?

MMA Fighting’s Mike Heck, Damon Marin, and Alexander K. Lee put on their prognosticating goggles and make their picks for who leaves Saudi Arabia with the heavyweight crown.

Heck: I think we’re taking a journey to Trilogy Town, gentlemen!

The first fight between Usyk and Fury was an absolute classic. Both men looked great at moments in the matchup, but Fury learned a valuable lesson that he’ll likely never forget — don’t mess around with a guy like Usyk, because he’ll make you pay. Skillwise, Fury has all of the intangibles to win this fight — but between the ears is where the difference will be made.

While most haven’t loved the short-answered temperament from Fury this week, I absolutely do. I thought the open workout dismissing was tremendous, the post-“workout” interview was absolutely hilarious, and the fact that John Fury—who has a knack of taking the spotlight off his children’s fights and putting it on himself—will not be in Fury’s corner is wise decision-making across the board.

Fury understands what is at stake here. He’s fighting an elite boxer, a two-division undisputed champion, and a guy who hurt him very badly in their first meeting in May. Fury was able to find a lot of success in his loss against Usyk, and I think he was that formula, along with the established size and reach advantage, plus, having a small crew in his corner telling him what he needs to hear will be huge. In another spectacular affair, give me “The Gypsy King” to even the series.

Pick: Fury via decision

Martin: If not for the referee making a colossal mistake in the first fight, Usyk would be entering this rematch against Tyson Fury with a knockout win on his record. Usyk had Fury wobbled and reeling late in the fight and the referee inexplicably decided to give The Gypsy King a standing eight-count rather than just waving the fight off. While Fury managed to find success in other rounds, Usyk’s ability to get inside his reach and hurt him repeatedly throughout the fight made the difference.

I don’t expect the rematch to play out much differently.

Usyk is the better boxer and he’s been consistently great over the past few years. His speed, movement, and volume punching have given plenty of bigger opponents problems and it’s difficult to imagine Fury being able to change that much over the past six months to negate those advantages. While Fury found much more success in his rematches with Deontay Wilder, Usyk is a vastly superior fighter to the knockout artist from the United States.

The only thing that might get Usyk in trouble is going for the kill when Fury isn’t quite dead yet and that could potentially backfire. Outside of that remote possibility, Usyk might win in even more lopsided fashion this time around and actually get the chance to deliver a knockout so long as the referee doesn’t find a way to screw it up again.

The biggest problem Usyk faces is what happens after this fight because he’s already run roughshod over almost every other viable challenger in the division (some of them twice. Hey, Anthony Joshua!) But that’s a question to be answered another day.

Pick: Usyk via knockout in Round 9

Lee: Rewatching the first fight, it’s clear that Fury has a lot of work to do to close the gap between him and Usyk. When Usyk advanced, Fury had little to offer in the way of counters, his jab scored but did little to stifle Usyk’s aggression, and even his reliable clinch game wasn’t present enough to influence the fight. All Fury had was volume and that didn’t matter much with Usyk closing the distance and scoring consistently inside.

Fury’s uppercut will be key in the rematch, because if he can suss out Usyk’s timing, there are huge opportunities for him to damage Usyk and throw off his rhythm, something he failed to do in May. When Fury let his hands go, he had success, though he also found himself in danger because Usyk is as accurate as they come even when it looks like the action is breaking down into a brawl. Let’s see how well Fury does if he can set up his jab to control distance and his uppercut to fight fire with fire when Usyk gets in his face.

Usyk is actually at a slight disadvantage because he not only won the first fight, he came as close as anyone to putting Fury away inside the distance. He can’t be overeager just because he feels like writing the referee’s wrong, so how he approaches a potential finish is just as important as how he gets to that point. Fury will have plenty of respect for Usyk’s punching power this time around, if he didn’t already.

I scored the first fight for Usyk by a narrow margin, 114-113, and while we could see another close contest, I’m actually leaning towards a re-focused Fury delivering on his promise to hurt Usyk. No judges needed this time, it’s Fury inside the distance.

Pick: Fury via knockout in Round 10