The Limits of the GOP Trifecta
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If this week was any indication of congressional Republicans’ ability to pass legislation in 2025, it won’t be easy. On Wednesday, it looked like Elon Musk had succeeded in undercutting a bipartisan spending bill, leading the government to the edge of a shutdown. Yesterday, Congress put forth a new, slimmed-down bill that Donald Trump and Musk praised—but it did not pass, in large part because of the inclusion of a suspension of the debt ceiling, which Trump has been loudly asking for. As of this writing, the House is preparing to vote on a version of the bill that does not include a provision to raise the debt ceiling.
I asked my colleague Russell Berman, who covers Congress, to help me make sense of the chaotic past few days. We talked about Trump’s relationship with Musk, where Joe Biden is in all of this, and why the so-called GOP trifecta of House, Senate, and presidency may not be as empowering for Republicans as it seems.
Isabel Fattal: The week’s events seem like an example of the disparity between the big, bold moves that President-Elect Donald Trump (and Elon Musk) care about and the nitty-gritty of what members of Congress actually care about.
Russell Berman: Trump has never been very interested in the nitty-gritty. That has always caused conflict with Congress, whose job it is to worry about the details of legislation. The 430 members of the House, and certainly the 219 who are Republicans, all have their own different priorities.
Musk and Trump also have very different priorities, even though they are seemingly joined at the hip. Musk has been put in charge of this amorphous, Trump-invented Department of Government Efficiency with the mandate to cut a lot of spending. But Trump has never really been interested in cutting spending. He jumped in at the last minute this week and asked Republicans to increase the debt ceiling—which is always a difficult thing for Congress and especially for Republicans to do, because increasing the debt ceiling is seen as paving the way for more spending and more debt.
Trump wants it off the table, because he doesn’t want to have to deal with it once he takes office. But the slimmed-down bill didn’t work, because even though there was less direct spending in it, a few dozen Republicans and most of the Democrats opposed the debt-ceiling increase that was attached. That’s one example of how Trump not really caring about the nitty-gritty doesn’t work when dealing with Congress.
Isabel: If this week was a preview for how Congress will work under the next Trump presidency, what did we learn?
Russell: Come January, Republicans will have a larger majority in the Senate but a slightly smaller majority in the House. Their larger majority in the Senate matters for legislation only if they can get bills out of the House. We’ve seen this for the entire past two years, but this week makes clear once again that their majority is not big enough for them to really govern. For as much talk as there is about Republicans having a trifecta next year with Trump in the White House and control of both the House and the Senate, in reality, they’re going to have a lot of trouble passing their agenda without Democratic support.
Isabel: Trump hopes President Joe Biden will take the blame for this shutdown. But it strikes me that some Americans may already see Trump as the current president. And Biden has been noticeably quiet through all of this. Whom do you think the American public would ultimately hold responsible if the government does shut down?
Russell: Biden has almost disappeared from public view. Today, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was pushed on this—Biden hasn’t made any real public statement about these negotiations except through her. But this has really not been his negotiation. This has been a negotiation between the Democratic congressional leaders and the Republican congressional leaders. Trump has inserted himself into it; Biden has not. So that will also make it difficult to lay this at Biden’s feet.
Isabel: Is it standard practice for a president-elect to get involved in these sorts of shutdown negotiations in Congress?
Russell: The president-elect is inevitably seen as the leader of his party, so it’s not unheard of for negotiations that happen during the transition to involve the president-elect or his team. But Trump has no formal role here. In some ways, Musk—who, of course, also has no formal position in the government—forced his hand. He started posting about this bill that House Speaker Mike Johnson negotiated. All of a sudden, people wondered: Is Elon Musk speaking for Trump? He must be. That forced Trump and the vice president–elect—who is still a sitting senator—to weigh in a couple of days ago. But when they weighed in, it was almost anticlimactic, because Musk, with his unique combination of enormous wealth, control over a major social-media platform, and influence with Trump, had already spoken out—and Republicans were already listening.
Isabel: Trump’s spokespeople, and Musk himself, seem to be trying to dial back the idea that Musk was responsible for the failure of the original spending bill earlier this week. Do you think Trump may be unhappy that Musk took the reins like this?
Russell: That is probably the hope, interestingly enough, for both Johnson and Democrats. Even if they won’t say so explicitly, they are united in their desire for Elon Musk to not have so much power—and, frankly, to butt out of all this. The best way for that to happen, they might assume, is to make Trump believe that Musk is outshining him. Trump famously does not like to be upstaged or seen as doing anybody’s bidding. So they hope that Trump will toss him aside like he’s tossed aside many other people who have gotten close to him over the years. Loyalty goes only one way with Trump.
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Today’s News
- At least two people were killed after a car drove into a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, according to police. Fire and emergency services told CNN that more than 60 people have been injured, and a suspect has been arrested.
- Senior U.S. officials met with the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that led the toppling of the Syrian regime, for the first time since former President Bashar al-Assad fled the country.
- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a major reshuffle of his cabinet, including the addition of eight new members.
Dispatches
- The Books Briefing: Ella Baxter’s new novel reminds us that mediocrity is far more common than genius, Maya Chung writes.
- Atlantic Intelligence: Certain words immediately short-circuit ChatGPT, revealing the direct control that tech companies have over their AI products, Damon Beres writes.
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Evening Read
Postpone Your Pleasures
By Arthur C. Brooks
One evening, a few months before [my father-in-law] died, he read in his local paper an article of mine about unhappiness. “You have a lot of complicated theories,” he told me, “but the real reason people are unhappy is very simple.” I asked him to elaborate. “They don’t enjoy their dinner,” he responded. I asked him what he meant. “Well, during the civil war, we were always hungry,” he said. “But one day a year—Christmas—we got to eat whatever we wanted, and we were so happy. Today, people snack all day long, are never hungry, don’t enjoy their dinners, and aren’t happy—even on Christmas.”
More From The Atlantic
- How COVID stole Christmas
- Liberals have an own-goal problem.
- What Nikki Giovanni wouldn’t write about
- A galactic chain
Culture Break
Watch (or skip). Even the director Barry Jenkins can only do so much with the material in Mufasa: The Lion King (out now in theaters), Hannah Giorgis writes.
Take a look. These photos of the week show a surfing Santa Claus in Australia, a sunset camel safari in India, a cyclo-cross race in Belgium, and more.
Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.
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