Johnson spending deal throws Speakership into question as floor vote approaches

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) handling of an end-of-year spending deal is throwing his grasp on his gavel into uncertain territory ahead of a critical Jan. 3 Speaker vote, as some GOP lawmakers question their support for the Louisiana Republican.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) on Wednesday came out against Johnson in light of the spending deal, pledging to oppose him on the House floor next month. And a handful of other Republicans are not saying if they will support Johnson next month, leaving their options open as criticism of the Speaker mounts.

Hardline House Republicans who have been party to gavel battles in the past, meanwhile, say chatter is increasing about Speaker alternatives, raising serious questions about Johnson’s fate in the top job.

 Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) said that discussion about alternatives to Johnson is “the most I’ve ever heard.”

Another House Republican tied Johnson’s fate to the negotiated spending package: “If this passes, the Speaker’s in real trouble,” the lawmaker said.

Even if Johnson abandons the bill, his handling of the situation could leave GOP members sour on his leadership.

Opposition to the spending deal from President-elect Trump — whose prior support for Johnson helped him get unanimously nominated for Speaker last month — and Elon Musk, who huddled with Republicans at the Capitol recently but has been incessantly posting on X against the bill — is putting even more heat on the Speaker as he looks to navigate the last legislative landmine of the 118th Congress.

The bill unveiled Tuesday evening combines an extension of government funding through March 14 with a number of add-ons, including disaster assistance for hurricanes damage and farmers; a health care deal that includes reforms to the pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) industry; an extension of the farm bill; and an increase in pay for members of Congress.

Amid the outrage, the Speaker is considering a “clean” continuing resolution as a plan B. Trump, meanwhile, is pushing Johnson to include a debt ceiling increase with a “clean” continuing resolution (CR). But it remains unclear if that could pass the House, with Democrats appearing to balk at the new proposal after securing wins in the negotiated package.

Johnson cannot afford more than one Republican defection on the House floor in the Jan. 3 Speakership election, assuming all members are present and voting. Republicans are set to have 219 Republicans on Jan. 3, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) seat expected to be vacant. All 215 Democrats will vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Massie, who previously led a failed effort with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) in the spring attempting to oust Johnson, had appeared to soften on his opposition to the Speaker earlier this month. But the spending package is cementing his opposition to Johnson.

“I won’t vote for him,” Massie said, citing “all the grievances I had this summer when we tried to vacate, and then this bill.”

Other Republicans are signaling that they may follow Massie’s lead.

“I’m not committing to anything just yet, but I can tell you this: I have a massive amount of heartburn over what's been done, how it's been done, and why it's been done,” said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in 2023.

Johnson’s potential defectors are not limited to the usual hardline conservative antagonists, though. Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) said he is undecided on his support for Johnson, before tearing into the Speaker’s leadership — especially on government funding matters.

“He committed to the conference a year ago that we weren’t gonna govern by CRs anymore and we’ve done five,” Steube said. “And 43 days after we get a mandate from the American people we’re gonna work with Democrats to do stuff, when a Republican Senate comes in in two weeks?”

All that is setting the stage for another potential drawn-out Speaker battle. It took House Republicans 15 ballots over multiple days to elect McCarthy in 2023, before a revolt from a handful of GOP members led to McCarthy’s ouster and eventual settling on Johnson.

Johnson on Tuesday downplayed the risks, saying in a press conference that he is “not worried” about getting the support he needs to keep the gavel next year, adding he “certainly hope[s] and am working towards the majority of the majority” of the GOP conference supporting the CR.

“We’re governing. Everybody knows we have difficult circumstances. We’re doing the very best we can under those circumstances,” Johnson said.

And asked about Musk’s opposition on Wednesday, Johnson said on Fox & Friends that the billionaire incoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) co-chief understands the “impossible” position the Speaker is in. That interview came shortly before Musk unleashed dozens of posts of X slamming the proposed CR.

One House Republican said the two “obvious candidates” for Speaker if Johnson were to lose support would be House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), both of whom ran failed bids for the top job after McCarthy’s ouster last year. Another obvious possibility would be House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), the No. 2 Republican who also sought the Speakership in 2023, though members did not float his name to The Hill. 

Ogles pointed to a poll on his X account that included Emmer, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), and Jordan as potential options for Speaker. 

But Donalds, who is likely to run for governor of Florida, told The Hill he is still supporting Johnson for Speaker. Jordan also told reporters on Wednesday that “Johnson’s going to be the Speaker, I’m not concerned about that,” later adding: "I'm for Mike." A spokesperson for Emmer said that "Whip Emmer supports Speaker Johnson and is focused on doing the job he was elected to do."

And in a good sign for the Speaker, he is retaining some support from hardline conservatives.

“I still support Speaker Johnson,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus. But he added: “There are a growing number of voices, both inside and outside the Freedom Caucus, who kind of shake their heads at what's going on this week.”

Harris helped negotiate a deal with Johnson and anti-chaos conservatives to raise the threshold to force a snap vote on ousting the Speaker from a single member to nine members, which helped secure Johnson’s nomination for Speaker in an internal House GOP voice vote in November.

Even if Johnson survives this roadblock, the mutiny he faced over the spending deal is foreshadowing what the next Congress could bring — when Republicans will have an even slimmer majority and, after a number of members depart for the Trump administration, will not be able to afford to lose any lawmakers on party-line votes.

And he will still have to grapple with the motion to vacate, which even with a higher threshold would still lead to Johnson’s demise.

Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), another member who helped to oust McCarthy, said the spending deal “does affect how I'm thinking about my vote” for Speaker, pointing to consistent frustrations with how the Lousianan has handled spending issues over the last year. 

“This has been the same playbook that I've seen, you know, pretty much every time from Speaker Johnson,” Crane said.