Week 16 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks, plus an upset special

It’s time to figure out your Survivor picks for the 2024 season. We’ll break down safe, value, and trap picks heading into Week 16.

The holiday season is fast approaching and the NFL is officially into Saturday football. The Week 16 NFL schedule marks the first time this season we’ll see a Saturday slate of games. The next three weeks to close out the regular season will feature Saturday games, with next week’s Christmas schedule a particularly busy one.

Last week was a fairly quiet one for upsets. The Saints almost shocked the Commanders, but otherwise there weren’t any overly surprising results. That means Survivor pools did not see much in the way of a shakeup coming out of the week. Given the results, there was nothing earth-shattering in my weekly Survivor picks column. I had an outside shot at the Raiders securing an upset, but as bad as Atlanta was, Las Vegas was worse. I’ll also take some credit for suggesting Commanders-Saints was a trap game.

It’s now time for Week 16 picks. I’ve got my full picks below. There are plenty of options to consider and every week this season we’ll be breaking down the safest picks, the best value picks, the potential trap picks, and one upset pick if you feel the need to get a little wild with your pick to go against the grain.

Safest picks

Bills over Patriots
Packers over Saints

The playoff bound double digit favorites taking on some brutal opponents. Saints over Packers strikes me as the more likely upset if I had to pick one, but these both will be popular picks in Week 16.

Best value picks

Falcons over Giants
Cardinals over Panthers
Rams over Jets

The Falcons looked like a potential popular pick this week, but their change at QB could swing this in one of two directions. People either think Michael Penix is an automatic upgrade over Kirk Cousins, or people don’t know and decide to save the Falcons for Week 18 if Penix proves to be an upgrade. I lean toward expecting more of the latter, but feel like he could be an upgrade. Their offense stinks and it’s hard to see it getting worse.

The Cardinals and Rams are both headed on the road, but they face highly suspect teams. The Rams might be worth saving for a Week 18 home game against a Seahawks team playing without Geno Smith, but the Jets are pretty bad.

Upset pick

Cowboys over Bucs

The Bucs should win this game, but they remain a tough team to figure out. They went in and crushed the Chargers last week, but I could easily see them flopping in Dallas. I’m seriously considering the Bucs in my confidence picks pool this week.

Trap picks

Colts over Titans
Bengals over Browns

The Colts and Bengals need wins to remain alive in the playoff race, and they are at least getting a bad divisional opponent. But it remains a divisional opponent, and both are implementing a quarterback change headed into Week 16. I don’t know if Mason Rudolph or Dorian Thompson-Robinson are going to make a difference, but I don’t know that they won’t make a difference!