Bears president Kevin Warren believes in GM Ryan Poles — until he doesn't

MINNEAPOLIS — Three days after Matt Eberflus was fired, Bears president Kevin Warren thought he was settling the Ryan Poles matter at the press conference to address the coach’s firing. But there was just one hitch — no one believed him.

“[The] next item I want to make sure we’re clear about is Ryan Poles is the general manager of the Chicago Bears and he will remain the general manage of the Chicago Bears,” Warren said on Dec. 2 at Halas Hall. “I’m confident in Ryan. My faith remains strong in him.”

As any veteran observer of these episodes knows all too well, they believe in you at Halas Hall until they don’t. Warren’s en-dorsement belied the optic of Poles looking like a subservient junior partner in the Bears’ hierarchy next to Warren’s dominant pose on the podium that day.

With the coaching search underway, Poles’ future with the team is unsettled, with one year left on his original four-year contract. So there are three scenarios that could ensue after this season:

† Warren signs Poles to a contract extension. It’s unlikely any coaching candidate with other options is going to hitch his wagon to a GM who himself is on a contract year. So Warren is going to have to back up his endorsement with a financial commitment to a general manager he did not hire.

† Warren fires Poles and aligns himself with his own GM, and a head coach that he endorses, if not hires, through his own evaluation process. That still leaves the new GM and coach with an inherited franchise quarterback, but with Caleb Williams, that’s an upgrade over Matt Nagy inheriting Mitch Trubisky and Poles and Eberflus inheriting Justin Fields.

† With his authority diminished and the original working dynamic altered, Poles resigns to better position himself for a second shot that fired general managers rarely get.

With the firings of Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron already this season, the Poles situation is all-too-typical Halas Hall tumult. Poles is the third general manager hired by the Bears in the last 13 seasons, following Phil Emery (2012-14) and Ryan Pace (2015-21).

So here we go again — should the Bears fire Poles? Should they extend him? The good news — as it relates to the Emery and Pace firings — is that there is nothing the Bears HAVE to do.

Emery’s departure was a no-brainer following two years of dysfunction after he hired Marc Trestman over Bruce Arians. Pace had one winning season in seven years, a deteriorating roster, a bad salary cap situation, sub-standard draft capital and the ever-fireable albatross of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes. It was time. For many Bears fans, his firing was a year (or more) too late.

Poles has used up most if not all of the cushion he had from the trade with the Panthers for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick that produced wide receiver DJ Moore and Williams. Most of all, hiring Eberflus, doubling down on him after last year and firing him this season cast the most doubt on Poles’ judgment — and his qualifications for hiring the next coach.

But extending Poles could be a solution to the Bears’ problems as much as firing him. He has upgraded the roster, has a franchise quarterback in place and still has plenty of draft capital and salary-cap space. Arguably, he deserves a chance to hire a second coach and prove he can learn from his mistake.

And likewise, firing Poles could give the Bears a chance to find a general manager who can build on Poles’ roster upgrades, improve on his weaknesses and give Williams the support he needs — the offensive line and the coach — to take the team to the next level.

This time, it’s a tough call. And that might be the bigger issue — that people above Poles at Halas Hall have to make it.