The Messy Syrian Conflict: Too Many Actors and Complex Alignments

The United States must carefully consider its actions before stepping into the Syrian quagmire, a potentially unwinnable conflict involving multiple actors and deeply conflicting interests.

Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, has evolved into one of the most complex and devastating conflicts in modern history.

Far from being a straightforward struggle between regime forces and rebels, it has become a tangled web of overlapping allegiances, ethnic and religious tensions, and geopolitical rivalries.

The war has turned Syria into a battlefield for local, regional, and international actors, each pursuing conflicting interests.

At the heart of Syria’s complexity lies the sheer number of actors involved. On one side are regime loyalists, led by President Bashar al-Assad (now deposed) and supported by external powers like Russia and Iran.

On the other side, a kaleidoscope of rebel groups battles both the regime and, in some cases, each other. These include Turkish-backed groups like the Free Syrian Army (FSA), now rebranded as the Syrian National Army (SNA), and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate that now seeks to present itself as a more moderate opposition force.

Adding to this mix is the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the United States, which primarily focuses on countering ISIS.

Russia, a longstanding ally of President Bashar al-Assad, has significantly reduced its military presence in Syria following Assad’s ousting.

Russian troops have withdrawn, and military equipment, including attack helicopters and air defense units, has been dismantled. Assad has fled to Russia, where he was granted asylum by President Vladimir Putin.

Iran, another key supporter of Assad, has faced setbacks due to his removal. The fall of Assad’s regime has weakened Iran’s strategic position in the region, particularly its land corridor through Syria, which was crucial for supplying Hezbollah.

In response, Iran has withdrawn some military and diplomatic personnel from Syria.

Israel has conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah weapons depots in Syria, aiming to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to the group.

Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism about the potential for a more stable and less hostile neighbor following Assad’s removal.

However, concerns remain about the nature of the new leadership and the possibility of continued instability.

The United States maintains a limited troop presence in eastern Syria, to combat ISIS and prevent the group’s resurgence.

Its presence is also a hedge against growing Iranian influence and a safeguard for Kurdish allies who played a key role in defeating ISIS.

Despite these goals, the U.S. has largely avoided deeper involvement, leaving many of its local allies feeling abandoned.

Turkey, by far the most influential foreign actor, has long supported opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad, seeing the Syrian conflict as an opportunity to expand its influence in the region while countering threats to its national security.

In the wake of Assad’s downfall, Turkey reopened its embassy in Syria and has actively engaged in diplomatic discussions regarding Syria’s future governance.

These efforts are aimed at ensuring that any new power structure in Syria aligns with Ankara’s strategic interests, particularly regarding the Kurdish issue and the ongoing fight against Kurdish separatists.

A significant driver of Turkey’s involvement in Syria is its opposition to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—a designated terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU. The PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state for decades, seeking autonomy for Kurds in southeastern Turkey.

Ankara fears that the SDF’s control of large swathes of northern Syria could provide a safe haven for PKK militants and embolden Kurdish separatist movements within Turkey.

To counter this threat, Turkey has conducted multiple cross-border military operations in northern Syria since 2016, targeting Kurdish forces under the pretext of establishing a “safe zone” along its southern border.

Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters have played a key role in these campaigns, capturing significant territories once held by the SDF, including Afrin and parts of the Euphrates River’s east.

Most recently, the Turkish military, with SNA support, seized the city of Manbij from the SDF, further weakening Kurdish control in the region.

Turkey’s aggressive stance against Kurdish forces has drawn international criticism, particularly from the United States, which had previously backed the SDF as a crucial ally in the fight against ISIS.

Despite these tensions, Turkey has remained steadfast in its position, prioritizing its domestic security concerns over international objections.

Ankara’s broader aim is to prevent the emergence of any autonomous Kurdish entity in Syria that could inspire similar aspirations among its Kurdish population.

Beyond its military campaigns, Turkey has also sought to resettle Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey into the northern territories it controls in Syria.

Ankara claims this initiative will ease the burden of hosting millions of Syrian refugees while creating a demographic buffer against Kurdish influence in the region. However, critics argue that this policy amounts to demographic engineering and could exacerbate ethnic tensions in the already war-torn region.

Each of the parties to the Syrian war has its own agenda and priorities. For example, while the SNA operates under Turkish control and targets Kurdish forces, HTS aims to consolidate its position in Syria by distancing itself from its extremist past. Meanwhile, the SDF governs the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), a Kurdish-led region that seeks greater autonomy but struggles to gain international recognition.

Syria’s strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, the Middle East, and Europe makes it a key battleground for regional and international powers. For Turkey, the primary concern is preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state on its southern border.

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