How an affordability crisis has led to Republican gains in a progressive bastion

• Vermont, home to Sen. Bernie Sanders, has long been known for its progressive politics.
• But in the November general election, Republicans made key inroads in state legislative races.
• Many voters, who generally back Democrats on the federal level, sided with the GOP on local issues.

In recent decades, Vermont has become known for its progressive politics, with figures like independent Sen. Bernie Sanders dominating the New England state's political landscape.

On the federal level, the Democratic edge is clear. Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President-elect Donald Trump by over 31 points in Vermont, one of her top showings in the country.

The popular Republican governor, Phil Scott, even voted for Harris, declaring he "put country over party."

But further down-ballot, Republicans made some key gains in Vermont, breaking Democratic supermajorities as voters concerned about affordability boosted the GOP in a series of pivotal races.

Before the November general election, Democrats held 107 out of 150 seats in the Vermont House of Representatives, and the GOP held 37 seats. But when the state House reconvenes in January, Democrats and Progressives will have 91 seats, compared to 56 for the GOP; independents will hold three seats. And in the Vermont Senate, the previous 21 to 7 Democratic advantage over the GOP will shrink to a 16 to 13 Democratic majority (in addition to one Progressive member).

While Democrats will continue to hold majorities in both chambers, they'll lack the numbers to override any vetoes from Scott, who in November was reelected in a nearly 52-point landslide on a platform of stabilizing the school budget process and staving off significant property tax increases. The governor has also sought to tackle the housing shortage in Vermont, where affordability has been a major issue for lawmakers in recent years.

A June 2024 assessment taken for the Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development found that the state will need to boost the pace of homebuilding to produce the 24,000 to 36,000 new year-round homes from 2025 through 2029 needed to address demand and replace homes impacted by flooding.

"The goal is to get them to come to the table … and to get enough support to work toward more affordability," Scott's policy director, Jason Maulucci, told The New York Times, referring to Democratic state lawmakers.

Trump made critical electoral gains across the country as many voters dissatisfied with the economy opted for him instead of Harris. During President Joe Biden's term in office, inflation drove blocs of traditionally Democratic-leaning constituencies, like Latino voters and young voters, into the GOP's fold.

After Biden stepped aside as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee in July, Harris took on the party's messaging on the economy. But despite some polls showing her having made inroads against Trump on the issue, she ultimately fell short in critical swing states.

Vermont's form of Republicanism has traditionally been more moderate than the socially conservative brand that defines the national GOP. However, the state is still dominated by rural areas, where the party was ripe for gains. Democrats, who for years have been the driving force in the state capital of Montpelier, faced the ire of many voters who wanted to see the legislature curb tax hikes in the state.

"Voters have been telling us for years that they're sick of rising costs, rising rents, rising property taxes and grocery bills, and they feel like they can't get ahead," consultant Lachlan Francis told the Times. "They have felt that way for a long time, as the Legislature followed an agenda that was perceived as inflationary, and there was a price to pay for that."