DIMES: Trades are hard
Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the NBA
The first innings of the Jimmy Butler trade sweepstakes revealed what everyone should have already known: there has never been a more challenging environment to make a seismic trade.
Consider Butler’s four reported (and publicly rebuffed) preferred destinations.
The only player the Suns could trade to match up salaries is Bradley Beal, and he has a no-trade clause. Phoenix isn’t allowed to stack contracts, either.
There’s no way for the Mavericks to make a run at Butler without dealing at least three rotation players, and then keeping him beyond this season would require being an apron team.
Houston has the trade chips, but how would adding Butler (a career 33%, low-volume 3-point shooter) solve their biggest issue of outside shooting? The Rockets rank 27th in 3-point percentage and would likely lose some of their best shooters in a hypothetical trade.
Then there’s the Warriors, who would need to give up Andrew Wiggins in any trade package for a star-level player (or, rather, a star-level contract). In the Warriors’ ideal world, they’d be able to add a No. 2 scorer to the nucleus of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Wiggins — not while subtracting from it.
As Mike Dunleavy Jr. said this summer, to the dismay of Dub Nation’s lunatic fringe, (big) trades are hard. They’re much more likely to make a minor move, like acquiring Dennis Schroder.
Every team has different, complicated restrictions based on their status in the new apron system. Four are in the second apron and unable to trade multiple players in a deal. Six more are in the first apron and thereby lose access to some trade exceptions. At least five have no shot at the playoffs and are either in clear sell mode or aren’t open for business in either direction.
That leaves 15 teams in the middle — trade merchants — who could go either way. They may want to add talent to vault into contention, like the Warriors, or want to ship out a player who may walk in free agency, like Miami and Butler.
The new apron system is partly designed to restrict player movement by preventing super teams. And it’s probably going to work.
Beyond the new system, organizations have likeminded analytics departments mining for edges and likely using similar models. Nobody wants to get fleeced. Major League Baseball has the same issue. The art of the deal has become science, and the scientific method stunts action.
Owners also often have different incentive structures than general managers.
The Warriors fashioned their roster to have a bunch of mid-sized, tradeable contracts, and it’s still going to be difficult for them to find a trade partner and swing a deal that indubitably raises their ceiling.
They’re obviously not the only ones finding it challenging to make moves.
Do the Pelicans, who have tried to deal Brandon Ingram for the past year, think trades are easy? How about the Bulls, who have wanted to unload Zach LaVine’s contract off their books for ages? Or the Lakers, who are always trying to find more talent to put around LeBron James and Anthony Davis?
Blockbusters, of course, aren’t impossible. Karl-Anthony Towns moved right before the year in a blockbuster. The Celtics built half of their championship core via trades. It takes smart, creative front offices who amass assets and roster flexibility to complete major deals.
The Warriors, by all accounts, have one. They helped engineer the six-team deal that netted Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield. More than one anonymous league executive considers Dunleavy a superior general manager to Bob Myers.
As trades for star players become increasingly tough, there will be a premium on deals like the 2022 Derrick White deal. At the time, many thought the Celtics overpaid (really, a first-rounder and a pick swap for a guy who never averaged close to 20 points per game?). Actually, the Celtics targeted an overlooked role player who could star in their ecosystem.
Trading for the next distressed asset — either because of injury or misuse — is hard for different reasons. Everyone’s looking for the next Derrick White now.
Unless a star like LeBron James demands to be traded specifically to the Warriors, Golden State should be on the hunt for the next Derrick White. Someone whose current team is the wrong fit, whose potential hasn’t yet been met, who could star in the Warriors’ system. Someone in the White, Dyson Daniels or Norman Powell camp. Maybe it’s Dennis Schroder.
There are 53 days until the trade deadline. The Warriors very well might swing a deal. But it won’t be easy.