AI predicts the Oscars, says ‘Joker 2’ and ‘The Substance’ are locks for Best Picture nods

Gold Derby asked Google’s Gemini AI to forecast this year’s top races, and got some head-scratching results.

The last time we checked in with Gemini AI, Google’s new artificial intelligence bot, it was predicting major Oscar nominations for “Joker: Folie à Deux” stars Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga. Now, following a week that saw the likes of the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards weighing in, we caught up with Gemini again and while Phoenix and Gaga are out, “Joker” is in for picture and director Todd Phillips. Also, “The Substance” is now receiving some love from this specific robot for picture and lead actress Demi Moore. Gemini also is endorsing “Gladiator 2,” forecasting the Ridley Scott sequel as a contender for picture, director, and supporting actor Denzel Washington.

We asked Gemini for its latest round of AI Oscar predictions in the six main categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. You can see its forecasted nominations below. For the uninitiated, Gemini is a chatbot that uses “machine learning and natural language processing to provide human-like responses to text, image, and audio prompts.”

Comparatively, Gold Derby‘s Oscar predictions are derived from the combined forecasts of four unique groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Who do you think has the better predictions? Be sure to sound off in our movie forums.

We’ll continue to update AI’s predictions throughout the campaign; in the meantime, you can check out how we’re currently handicapping the races after a big week. And we’ll see who’s the most accurate when the envelopes are opened on March 2, 2025.

AI predictions for Best Picture:

1. “Dune: Part Two”
2. “Joker: Folie à Deux”
3. “Gladiator 2”
4. “Wicked”
5. “Anora”
6. “The Brutalist”
7. “Conclave”
8. “A Real Pain”
9. “The Substance”
10. “Nickel Boys”

Gold Derby predictions: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Wicked,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Sing Sing,” “A Real Pain,” “Nickel Boys,” “A Complete Unknown”

AI predictions for Best Director:

1. Denis Villeneuve for “Dune: Part Two”
2. Todd Phillips for “Joker: Folie à Deux”
3. Ridley Scott for “Gladiator II”
4. Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist”
5. Sean Baker for “Anora”

Gold Derby predictions: Corbet, Baker, Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Villeneuve

AI predictions for Best Actor:

1. Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown”
2. Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist”
3. Ralph Fiennes for “Conclave”
4. Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing”
5. Daniel Craig for “Queer”

Gold Derby predictions: Brody, Fiennes, Chalamet, Domingo, Craig

AI predictions for Best Actress:

1. Angelina Jolie for “Maria”
2. Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl”
3. Mikey Madison for “Anora”
4. Demi Moore for “The Substance”
5. Karla Sofía Gascón for “Emilia Pérez”

Gold Derby predictions: Madison, Gascón, Jolie, Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Kidman

AI predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
1. Guy Pearce for “The Brutalist”
2. Denzel Washington for “Gladiator II”
3. Stanley Tucci for “Conclave”
4. Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain”
5. Jeremy Strong for “The Apprentice”

Gold Derby predictions: Culkin, Pearce, Washington, Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), Yura Borisov (“Anora”)

AI predictions for Best Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Pérez”
2. Danielle Deadwyler for “The Piano Lesson”
3. Isabella Rossellini for “Conclave”
4. Felicity Jones for “The Brutalist”
5. Saoirse Ronan for “Blitz”

Gold Derby predictions: Saldaña, Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Jones, Rossellini, Deadwyler

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