Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, pick: Will wrestling determine UFC on ESPN 63 headliner?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 63 main event between Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley.

Colby Covington

Staple info:

• Record: 17-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC
• Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Leon Edwards (Dec. 16, 2024)
• Camp: MMA Masters (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC interim welterweight titleholder
+ 2x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Superb cardio and conditioning
+ Improved overall striking
^ Kicks, combos, counters
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Chains attempts, constantly re-wrestles
+ Tremendous top game
^ Solid wrist-rides and positional awareness
+/- 5-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws

Joaquin Buckley

Staple info:

• 20-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC
• Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Stephen Thompson (Oct. 5, 2024)
• Camp: Finney’s HIT Squad (St. Louis/Illinois)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ 14 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and explosive mover
^ Blitzes in and out of range
+ Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Underrated/underutilized kicking ability
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid first-layer defense
^ Good sprawls and underhook awareness
+ Servicable transitional grappler
^ Will scramble hard to standing positions
+/- 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw

The main event on ESPN features a semi-impromptu pairing of southpaws at 170 pounds.

Officially standing 5-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws, Covington has been working hard to improve his striking since stepping onto the UFC scene.

From not crossing his feet to resetting his angles on the outside, Covington has displayed the ability to create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his power side – shots that were often set up by his jab.

Since parting ways with American Top Team, Covington has since attempted to build upon said skills at MMA Masters. The 36-year-old standout will still occasionally roll under his crosses, but now Covington will typically do so while stepping through into an orthodox stance to set up power from that side.

Covington also appears to be more content to fight off the back foot in his last few fights, showing more of a countering approach. The former interim titleholder can still sneak in savvy uppercuts and hooks in exchanges, demonstrating a more diversified shot selection overall (especially when pressuring forward).

Regardless of which avenue Covington chooses this Saturday, he’ll need to be mindful of the bombs that will be coming back at him.

Enter Buckley.

A self-made martial artist from St. Louis, Buckley appears to be built for the fight game. Not only can Buckley talk the talk, but the 30-year-old contender can also walk the walk in the way that he’s willing to go to war with anyone on the roster.

Whether we’re looking at Buckley’s in-and-out movements or his natural aptitude for high-flying kicks, you’d be forgiven for assuming that “New Mansa” comes from a traditional martial arts background. Add in his healthy mix of slipping and ripping hooks, and Buckley makes for a dangerous package to deal with on the feet.

Buckley does have a tendency to load up heavily on linear advances, but the 10-year pro seems to do a better job at lead-side prods and attacks when posed with a fellow southpaw stance.

Still, Buckley will need to be careful about his aggression being used against him given the looming takedown threats from Covington.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Considering the crux of Covington’s game, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount for Buckley this weekend.

Whether we’re talking about singles or doubles, Covington has a ton of entries he can chain to and from when looking to achieve his takedowns.

Film Study of Colby Covington’s Entries

How he enters into double legs, knee picks, single legs and body locks

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— Phantom Punch Breakdowns (@9h6st21_mma) December 13, 2023

Although reactionary shots in the open will likely be available due to Buckley’s aggression, chaining attacks along the fence might end up being Covington’s best bet. That said, getting past Buckley’s first layer of defense appears to be increasingly difficult as his career progresses.

Possessing strong hips and an athletic sprawl that he keeps on a hair-trigger, Buckley is good about shutting down shots that come his way in the open. When Buckley is pressed against the cage, he applies solid underhook awareness that he utilizes to help hoist opponents off of his hips.

However, Buckley can sometimes fail to cover the head, which can allow for directional changes and extended attacks from his opponent.

Buckley, to his credit, is an urgent scrambler from negative positions. But against a grappler like Covington, Buckley will need to be careful about the exposure he tends to give when turtling to his base.

A talented grappler from topside, Covington uses everything from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to break an opponent’s balance and spirit. Whether he is spiraling out the base of those who try to stand or striking them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily becoming a master chef when it comes to cooking his counterparts underneath him.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley odds

Despite opening at practically a pick’em, public money has come in on the younger fighter, listing Buckley -300 and Covington +235 via FanDuel.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, pick

Even though I don’t disagree with public sentiment being low on Covington, this much of a spread in Buckley’s favor admittedly surprised me.

Buckley is definitely on the upswing and is the bigger finishing threat in this fight.

However, it’s hard to be as certain as the betting line above given that we’ve seen very little of Buckley’s defense opposite meaningful grappling or wrestling threats since his losses to Logan Storley and Nassourdine Imavov. Add in the fact that Buckley is technically 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (as opposed to Covington’s 5-1 in that statistical department), and I find myself walking firmer into the trappings of stylistic analysis.

I’m a big believer in the classic adage, ‘Styles make fights.’ Unfortunately, that approach comes with the trappings of time and intangibles attached.
Whether it be age, injury or otherwise, fighters – mainly for worse – tend to change over time.

It’s hard to say what the current mixture is for Covington, but he has taken more of a backfoot approach since moving shop to MMA Masters, something that I believe bodes badly for his game. Not only does fighting on the backfoot nuder a large part of Covington’s wrestling offense, but pressure is what was both filling the holes and fueling the success of his striking.

If Covington has not figured out that dynamic at this point in his career, then we may see a sadder-than-usual loss from “Chaos.” But even with his newfound countering approach, I suspect that Buckley’s aggression will still inherently open up takedown opportunities for Covington.

Couple that with his on-paper cardio edge, and I still have a hard time picking against Covington in this spot. I’ll be genuinely happy for Buckley if he’s able to win here, but they don’t call welterweight ‘wrestle-weight’ for no reason—it’s because the top of the weight class has been heavily inhabited by wrestlers since the days of Matt Hughes.

The pick is Covington by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Covington by decision