Is Syria Iran’s Afghanistan?
The ink was hardly dry on the resignation letter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad before he put on his running shoes to depart Damascus for the safety of Russia and before a coalition army of revolutionaries captured the capital city Dec. 8. In 2000, al-Assad replaced his father, Hafez, who had brutally ruled Syria for 29 years. A civil war – triggered in 2011 under the son’s rule – may now be drawing to an end.
It is the son who now bears responsibility for the deaths of over 600,000 of his countrymen as he opted to prolong the civil war by turning to both Iran and Russia to help him maintain power. While the U.S. and Turkey have supported certain combatants during the conflict, it is clear the big losers due to the rebels’ capture of Damascus are Iran and Russia.
The religious makeup of Syria consists of numerous minority groups. The largest minority among these are the Alawites, which is the third-largest sect within Islam. It is a sect that identifies closely with Islam’s second-largest sect – the Shiites. As Iran is one of the few countries with a Shiite majority, al-Assad embraced a relationship with Tehran. Iran’s help was quickly needed as al-Assad’s Syrian army was folding. By early 2012, tens of thousands of Iranian troops were in Syria to assist. As the civil war continued, Iran’s commitment steadily increased in personnel, training and technology. It even brought in Hezbollah – an Iranian terrorist proxy – to assist the Syrian dictator.
The opportunity to support al-Assad was an ideal one for the mullahs as it contributed to their religious mandate of creating a caliphate – initially regional but ultimately global – by which the world would be ruled. The incorporation of Syria, which centuries earlier had been part of an Islamic caliphate, would provide another step in that direction. As a result, for decades, Tehran had been investing its money, sweat and blood in molding Syria into a caliphate.
Yet, when the revolutionaries began knocking at the door to Damascus and al-Assad needed Iran most, the mullahs opted to cut their losses and run out on their only consistent ally since they had come to power in 1979. Similar to the embarrassing 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, for Iran, its withdrawal from Syria became its 2024 equivalent.
Even with Iran’s help, al-Assad had needed assistance from the Russians who launched a military intervention into Syria in September 2015. The Russians undertook to attack the mixed bag of anti-al-Assad revolutionaries initially with air support. Any group fighting al-Assad was designated as terrorist, enabling Russia to claim that was what it was fighting. Russia then introduced ground troops, including the infamous Wagner Group of mercenaries, into Syria. By early 2017, the Russians claimed their air force had conducted over 19,000 combat missions and delivered 71,000 strikes on “the infrastructure of terrorists.”
In 2016, Russia ratified a treaty with Syria giving the former its first permanent air base in the Middle East – although it had been operating out of it for over a year. Ever since 1971, Russia (then the Soviet Union) has had a naval base in Syria at Tartus. Unwilling to leave billions of dollars of military equipment behind at either location, days ago Russia began withdrawing its ships, planes and war materials. While withdrawing, Russia at least was not going to endure the humility the U.S. did in leaving billions of dollars of equipment behind.
The civil war against al-Assad has been fought by numerous revolutionary factions having varying interests. While the main groups to oppose him were an alliance of pro-democratic nationalists, others joining the war were the Syrian Salvation Government, represented by a coalition of Sunni militias led by a terrorist al-Qaida derivative group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS); the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a multi-ethnic, Arab-majority force led by the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG); and jihadist factions of the Islamic State.
Interestingly, while the HTS leader – Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, 42 – has been involved in the fighting for years without attracting too much international media attention, it is he who finally organized and spearheaded what has been a lightning assault against al-Assad’s army and his foreign-state supporters, forcing his resignation. As a senior International Crisis Group analyst, Jerome Drevon, notes, “By far, he’s the most important player on the ground in Syria.” HTS was affiliated with al-Qaida until breaking with it in 2016 “because of strategic disagreements,” and in 2017 the U.S. offered a $10 million bounty for information leading to al-Jawlani’s arrest. Unsurprisingly, Turkey has been supporting HTS.
As Iran blames the U.S. and Israel for al-Assad’s ouster despite the Islamic makeup of the rebels, Syria’s transitional prime minister encourages refugees to return home. He suggests a break with Iran may be in order as the country is weary of war and its people want to “enjoy stability and calm.” It is nice to hear, but the region has not been known for its stability and calm.
Al-Jawlani orchestrated a blitzkreig-like strike that, in just over a week, resulted in capturing the city of Aleppo in the north before quickly moving south to capture Hama, Homs and Damascus. Al-Assad reportedly escaped by plane from Damascus just prior to rebel forces entering the capital city and after his plea to the U.S. for help went unanswered.
One country to take immediate advantage of al-Assad’s fall is Israel. Between Dec. 8-9, it attacked over 300 Syrian targets, destroying the country’s entire MiG-29 fighter jet fleet as well as its navy. Also destroyed were numerous advanced air defense and radar systems, weapons caches, army warehouses, a chemical weapons and missile technology research center and a center for electronic warfare.
While Israel is obviously unsure how things will play out in Syria when the dust finally settles, Syria’s past anti-Israel history and al-Jawlani’s extremist roots are sufficient reasons for Israel to destroy much of the country’s military capabilities, at least for the near future, in what is a blow to Iran as well.
There was clear rejoicing by Syrians around the world over al-Assad’s ouster. What will be interesting to observe, however, is how long the rejoicing lasts. The victorious revolutionaries still represent a wide range of interests. As they consolidate their power in the weeks and months ahead, how they will sort out their differing interests remains to be seen, with the biggest issue being whether they can do so in a way that gives the Syrian people reason to rejoice.